tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38042363503569663102024-02-02T06:22:45.281-08:00Jim LaDue viewA collection of the things that interest me.Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.comBlogger50125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-36252145760458338912024-01-19T13:38:00.000-08:002024-01-19T13:38:25.789-08:0019 Jan 2024: What a Classic String of Lake Effect Mesovortices!<p> When I saw the flurry of social media posts showing radar data of an unusually coherent string of mesovortices, it brought back all sorts of memories to the day when Robert Sykes (the founder of SUNY Oswego's meteorology degree program) showed me examples of a temporal sequence of deep pressure drops in his lake effect field projects back in the late 1960's and 70's. Now come to this morning and the meteorological social media lights up with posts exclaiming about the amazingly coherent structure of the string of vortices traveling down the center of Lake Michigan, landing along Indiana/Michigan shoreline.</p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">See these posts (<a href="https://x.com/tornatrix/status/1748384994047787073?s=20" target="_blank">1</a>, <a href="https://x.com/StillwaterMet/status/1748354961061404726?s=20" target="_blank">2</a>, <a href="https://x.com/LoopsSr/status/1748377238108598524?s=20" target="_blank">3</a>, <a href="https://x.com/skydrama/status/1748375115895628034?s=20" target="_blank">4</a>, <a href="https://x.com/ICWR/status/1748348817131422203?s=20" target="_blank">5</a>, <a href="https://x.com/t_pardun/status/1748360672008659286?s=20" target="_blank">6</a>, <a href="https://x.com/superadiabatic0/status/1748336447600382368?s=20" target="_blank">7</a>, <a href="https://x.com/aaronjayjack/status/1748367494308356419?s=20" target="_blank">8</a>, the last one is a plea to understand what is causing these vortices)</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='447' height='372' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dyFX5mn1oL2uO-uPO7gqcyO6SBRcCEa-SrGqdPu3aFY3jN9L8rURyxZrlL2_WPeQlVbqqwtJ6suSwHek_-FkQ' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div><div><br /></div><div>On satellite, the day phase RGB revealed the same structures, partially hidden underneath a higher cloud deck.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid7Z0o6OsLvoO2WaLmHz1x0yhMMGVJgF4Z_RRhvVBqz-Q6ni9a2D1hTKrh5ndqEz3Yq8-xDIS2_UhCi7HO-hrZAcSq45Y74iIgNuCVU0b7Xoo3OFls9quhg6J5SkzeryZUOPgQQHU-FxWAPDzB-dT_-Xo9nJpB-M2_5daVtUI2-gU5SZ7HXycPeQJsH94/s2204/20240119-G16dayphase-1515z.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1678" data-original-width="2204" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid7Z0o6OsLvoO2WaLmHz1x0yhMMGVJgF4Z_RRhvVBqz-Q6ni9a2D1hTKrh5ndqEz3Yq8-xDIS2_UhCi7HO-hrZAcSq45Y74iIgNuCVU0b7Xoo3OFls9quhg6J5SkzeryZUOPgQQHU-FxWAPDzB-dT_-Xo9nJpB-M2_5daVtUI2-gU5SZ7HXycPeQJsH94/s320/20240119-G16dayphase-1515z.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">and loops (<a href="https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~tims/loops/goeseast_abi_radc_true_color_night_s20240119143117_e20240119195617_f66.mp4" target="_blank">1</a>, <a href="https://geosphere.ssec.wisc.edu/#playing:true;coordinate:-910539,4125596;zoom:6.7;coverage:radc;num_frames:66;frame_rate:20;start_time:2024-01-19T14:31:17Z;timeframe:Start%20Time;" target="_blank">2</a>) courtesy of Tim Schmidt CIMSS</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p>The impacts were typical of a lake effect band, low visibilities and snow covered roads <span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">(brief whiteouts along </span><a href="https://x.com/ChicagoMWeather/status/1748367689603600396?s=20" style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">I-94</a><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">, and</span><a href="https://x.com/WxScholl/status/1748348599862259893?s=20" style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank"> here</a><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">). </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">This is another example of the spectrum of vortices found in the cool season Great Lakes arena. I </span><a href="https://jimladueview.blogspot.com/2017/12/one-of-strongest-lake-induced-mesoscale.html" style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">wrote</a><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> about a much larger versions of these vortices, caused or enhanced by, converging land breezes, and/or by a localized mesocyclogenesis courtesy of a locally warmed airmass from convection and sensible heating by the lakes. With that background of vorticity, other, smaller scale vortices formed, even including water spouts. </span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">But this event isn't that. This is a sequence of vortices lined up at regular intervals along a convergence zone. The winds reported around the south end of Lake Michigan show the converging flow right up to either side of the band. But the reflectivity structures depict more detail.</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrZGBMxyLYiihoQvLw812TlPiHSL7mDb1q1xiOhBBXl2s_rfxP9uNU17MoHUMfVzL9HuVOIlV-AEINnPbFrnCDe6HxvrMUa0N9oN4nShL0rqR5u4Jw9WRWRPQGGOE3mxA16ZN181lTKyBXclKFD2a3ow8U-87isud0WahmgwO8g-ARd70Z6CXfR0ZeUPg/s2822/sfcplot-LakeMI-15UTC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1804" data-original-width="2822" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrZGBMxyLYiihoQvLw812TlPiHSL7mDb1q1xiOhBBXl2s_rfxP9uNU17MoHUMfVzL9HuVOIlV-AEINnPbFrnCDe6HxvrMUa0N9oN4nShL0rqR5u4Jw9WRWRPQGGOE3mxA16ZN181lTKyBXclKFD2a3ow8U-87isud0WahmgwO8g-ARd70Z6CXfR0ZeUPg/w445-h285/sfcplot-LakeMI-15UTC.jpg" width="445" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Two studies looked at the details of mesocyclone chains with diameters of a few km, like this one by </span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0430.1" style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">Mulholland and co-authors 2017</a><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and </span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00226.1." style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">Steiger and co-authors in 2013</a><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">. The 2017 paper's case study focused on mesovortices that were spaced about 6 km apart and had smaller diameters, perhaps around 2 km from eyeballing their figure 7. Many of these vortices had updrafts with them (though 1-3 m/s is not something that excites tornado chasers but it does excite lake effect nuts). They attributed the vortices to horizontal shearing instability, or HSI; this happens when there's an inflection point in the rate of the rate of change in the band-parallel wind across the band. I don't have a calculation of that wind but the process seems comparable between the 2017 case and here. The 2013 paper described a variety of vortex behaviors and initially brought up HSI. The background vorticity field develops from the same mechanism that accompanies the inflection point in the band-parallel winds. Winds are stronger on the right side of the band (right side when facing downwind) courtesy of the thermal low that forms over the lake. Shear vorticity forms in the background up to a point when HSI is favorable for the formation of a chain of equally spaced circular vortices. What triggers the roll-up of vortices is something I'm not sure is adequately answered but I think it becomes more likely if the convergence/vorticity increases or perhaps the background flow decreases (I know that sounds counterintuitive). </span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Even more of a question is how HSI can influence creating vortices that expand in size to to these diameters of 10-15 km and the accompanying braided reflectivity structure. The vortex diameter issue hasn't been explained yet but the braided structure has been documented along </span></span><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">dry lines courtesy of </span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3367.1" style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">Marquis and co-authors in 2007</a><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">. I relate to their explanation that if the vortex is large compared to the width of the convergence boundary, then watch out for the vortices to distort the convergence boundary so that they create a "staircase shape along the span of the boundary". See their figure 14 </span><a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/135/5/mwr3367.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display#i1520-0493-135-5-1749-f14" style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">here</a><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">. I believe a regularly spaced pattern of weakened (enhanced) convergence forms fore and aft of (left and right) of each vortex as the vortex flow superimposes on the general general convergence. Clouds and reflectivity diminish as the vortex flow accelerates away from the background flow in the fore and aft positions.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">So how rare is this feature? Well, there's a report on an earlier event back in 2004 by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<2269:MVEWAL>2.0.CO;2" target="_blank">Grim and co-authors</a>. This isn't new but certainly it's rare enough that every time it happens we notice them.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">What wasn't around in 2004 was the HRRR or other CAMS models. How did they do? I'll just show the HRRR. Amazingly the background analysis of the HRRR captured what was needed for the model to generate similar vortex behavior though maybe not to the degree you'd want. Check out the 3 hour forecast from this morning. There's the braided reflectivity pattern with the string of vortices to accompany them.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjow85TQJ-BAXNn_gduj9xD3TRTbYLWgHLbSopN3_J6MFsGABXbofn4dZl2rUFfDqO2NmhcrBB4DisAE1krcDF1_r8CCCwBKlvBjnVF3BayAsI0gj-vb0qXCO19Ve5g8iiRcKNXIMWBiTGi7r1DJOkhKVkgeMjxqIDwyZfOciMvOrFP-zmhSrRW49nawg4/s1100/20240119-HRRR-12z-1kmrefl-f003.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1100" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjow85TQJ-BAXNn_gduj9xD3TRTbYLWgHLbSopN3_J6MFsGABXbofn4dZl2rUFfDqO2NmhcrBB4DisAE1krcDF1_r8CCCwBKlvBjnVF3BayAsI0gj-vb0qXCO19Ve5g8iiRcKNXIMWBiTGi7r1DJOkhKVkgeMjxqIDwyZfOciMvOrFP-zmhSrRW49nawg4/s320/20240119-HRRR-12z-1kmrefl-f003.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim8YtaKPDa2Koxa6RjZLQuLX0YUKFqTeY1Df0RCRm4ztDaWtgJrnjAV8_kBIwV-0D9LH12lLA02cqR22RYzDLoShr3zLcBOYxcRdA02GZr4j2_K4LkAK4H1z_3clS4qIjkid0OWmDaimlA-4jfoH4IvV8qw0sp7ypopCoOr0ZrUQe4oU95oFisgT-Fdxw/s1838/20240119-HRRR-12z-sfcvort-f003.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1392" data-original-width="1838" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim8YtaKPDa2Koxa6RjZLQuLX0YUKFqTeY1Df0RCRm4ztDaWtgJrnjAV8_kBIwV-0D9LH12lLA02cqR22RYzDLoShr3zLcBOYxcRdA02GZr4j2_K4LkAK4H1z_3clS4qIjkid0OWmDaimlA-4jfoH4IvV8qw0sp7ypopCoOr0ZrUQe4oU95oFisgT-Fdxw/s320/20240119-HRRR-12z-sfcvort-f003.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p>Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-12703684157029879632023-12-31T20:51:00.000-08:002024-01-01T09:18:30.889-08:00My Weather Highlights of 2023 <p> Greetings again, I'm starting up again by looking at the weather highlights I've experienced since December of 2022.</p><p><b>Winter Scenes</b></p><p>22-24 December 2022:</p><p>On a trip to see family in Kaslo, BC, we knew we were getting into trouble more than a week before when we saw the arctic outbreak on all of the numerical guidance runs like the <a href="https://upcolorado.com/utah-state-university-press/item/6364-secrets-of-the-greatest-snow-on-earth-second-edition" target="_blank">ECMWF</a> from 10 days before. BTW, Kaslo is located 100mi north of Idaho on the shores of Lake Kootenay.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfR_KMghZbKfJD8FJBIOOgTx_qsNZ4WSg_nB1PX44nri7P8OvjMIj3KuHFWD5CIK8Rk0HifOoW5rOpAdrXuPHHKTXMBBYvpJ5Vy1CVizIKw3ZREzcMLS5lozQDhHN07uP-yzYg5d8xPbcpo1pwrudlRQNP1HL_TvNVetZkpsqMNHpv_psImmAJ3JQVBjo/s1024/ecmwf_T2m_us_65.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="1024" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfR_KMghZbKfJD8FJBIOOgTx_qsNZ4WSg_nB1PX44nri7P8OvjMIj3KuHFWD5CIK8Rk0HifOoW5rOpAdrXuPHHKTXMBBYvpJ5Vy1CVizIKw3ZREzcMLS5lozQDhHN07uP-yzYg5d8xPbcpo1pwrudlRQNP1HL_TvNVetZkpsqMNHpv_psImmAJ3JQVBjo/s320/ecmwf_T2m_us_65.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>We spent large sums of $$$ purchasing snow boots and other winter gear. We didn't come up with an engine block heater solution for our rental out of Spokane. But as it turned out Kaslo is in a relative oasis when it comes to truly bitter air. The high resolution models showed that the coldest air would sink down the Frasier river valley to our west and in the next valley to our east. (Oddly enough there's another Kootenay river to the east). </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil7P8SivBxz-8hb0IAkH3QygMyFzJkfW-GNEH-rH9B2gR-mzu7hcB4WbfAPEP7_eAK5zekSs-OJpvpJNnbO7nxDwOa489eCn4wDduxcCbbTRIcAP_sSZyUlBFhBidM2WX5eIwj2sAImDtNl4RA_bmCtqLYkRfP76APsA1wE9SyFOTxFxCPdFUzMSeZFCM/s800/IMG_7142.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil7P8SivBxz-8hb0IAkH3QygMyFzJkfW-GNEH-rH9B2gR-mzu7hcB4WbfAPEP7_eAK5zekSs-OJpvpJNnbO7nxDwOa489eCn4wDduxcCbbTRIcAP_sSZyUlBFhBidM2WX5eIwj2sAImDtNl4RA_bmCtqLYkRfP76APsA1wE9SyFOTxFxCPdFUzMSeZFCM/s320/IMG_7142.PNG" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>Certainly lake Kootenay had some influence on warming the lower air, and with it, some neat effects for which the <a href="https://www.eastshoreinternet.ca/ferry-cam-kootenay-bay/" target="_blank">East Shore Internet Society's</a> webcams were ideally suited to capture. I just have to share these time lapses from the 21st and 22nd to show what a 400' deep, 60 mi long lake, that never freezes, has on producing its own lake effect.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qiHhhlWIMMA" width="320" youtube-src-id="qiHhhlWIMMA"></iframe></div><br /><p>We had some neat views too.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4lk7uAo-13OYoAsYlTLgz2WhXXGD6AtBbvZd8DpqMWt3Gjn-WqOxoVLv2DGdJ3jOTyqoFVczN7jTS4PfHYxg8QzFUN6XQcE_zON-o-y1kxe2yGuXK8GBg41F33DsGDzk_kpiaeTDmQ7aGMcUGpP1CFGJkBFshQxpyIW4F0TrniafCrBrzukFz7i-xmW4/s6964/20221222-JGLARIV-143452-HDR.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4643" data-original-width="6964" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4lk7uAo-13OYoAsYlTLgz2WhXXGD6AtBbvZd8DpqMWt3Gjn-WqOxoVLv2DGdJ3jOTyqoFVczN7jTS4PfHYxg8QzFUN6XQcE_zON-o-y1kxe2yGuXK8GBg41F33DsGDzk_kpiaeTDmQ7aGMcUGpP1CFGJkBFshQxpyIW4F0TrniafCrBrzukFz7i-xmW4/w640-h426/20221222-JGLARIV-143452-HDR.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;">This summer thunderstorm-appearing scene on 22 Dec 1234 pm PST was courtesy of 0º F air flowing over Kootenay lake producing lake effect convection. The following snow showers gave us a few inches of snow earlier in the day.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipBagbPCouXC0ETAKKxRuOP6WYj4IfX5Td7wsEd8JiqWA_PrVOjW2zULA3Wk1SBhq3rZqEnQXbDfF9Cy1T2ACf4FWeiS4fwh4nm0U1YAj7sbTjGhoRKkF2sneeiW5WsKxxqHND5QkE7hIErD1e7xj3u3BVMbqUo3O84NpleXBQd18iPkQxcRyFeLjwt_w/s1814/20221222-JGLARIV-155025-3.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1132" data-original-width="1814" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipBagbPCouXC0ETAKKxRuOP6WYj4IfX5Td7wsEd8JiqWA_PrVOjW2zULA3Wk1SBhq3rZqEnQXbDfF9Cy1T2ACf4FWeiS4fwh4nm0U1YAj7sbTjGhoRKkF2sneeiW5WsKxxqHND5QkE7hIErD1e7xj3u3BVMbqUo3O84NpleXBQd18iPkQxcRyFeLjwt_w/w640-h400/20221222-JGLARIV-155025-3.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: center;">We had active convergence zones under the lake effect convection, and some produced outbreaks of vortices. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">2022-12-24 Tree Avalanches </div><br /><p style="text-align: left;">A few days later, i managed to capture these novel phenomena in my nephew's back yard in Kaslo. We had close to 20" of snow with high snowfall rates continuing which led to large snow loads forming in the trees around the property. With light winds, the loads kept building until the trees would unload them quickly, like an avalanche. What would follow would be a cascade of snow and a downburst that would fan out. At least these weren't dangerous like real avalanches but they were a nuisance when a particular pile of snow would decide to release over our heads while we were carrying groceries inside. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ShUowTu_Y8c" width="320" youtube-src-id="ShUowTu_Y8c"></iframe></div><p style="text-align: left;">Perhaps more appropriately, they were more like thunderstorm downbursts where excessive precipitation loading can initiate them. The similarity ends there because these tree avalanches don't have the ability to cool the air anymore than it is to assist with negative buoyancy, and there certainly isn't any melting going on, like in their thunderstorm downburst counterparts. The NWS has a great explanation of thunderstorm <a href="https://www.weather.gov/lmk/downburst" target="_blank">downbursts</a>.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">16-17 March: Winter Storm in NM</p><p style="text-align: left;">This storm wasn't one for low elevations as much as a powder bonanza above 7000' MSL. The first day we went into the Valley Caldera and into snow shower heaven. These were heavy showers that would give us an alternating white-out to pure sunshine experience. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc6Y4vV0tcSIXi11weC2d8XTrFfs_Q2wo5lIFuazAT-bpabPmeZpJzsd44e745ZSaj8Z4yD34veeK_CuLGbI2oGjBMwUgfHqL7aA-dYSqVxrPBXszG7aVRmggnbzBWNBrhH9tbhi8kBqvYsicj83q-2kar6qaVocaHK9T_waq1Apba4JFJPGI5MTcHOSU/s13142/IMG_7875.HEIC" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3754" data-original-width="13142" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc6Y4vV0tcSIXi11weC2d8XTrFfs_Q2wo5lIFuazAT-bpabPmeZpJzsd44e745ZSaj8Z4yD34veeK_CuLGbI2oGjBMwUgfHqL7aA-dYSqVxrPBXszG7aVRmggnbzBWNBrhH9tbhi8kBqvYsicj83q-2kar6qaVocaHK9T_waq1Apba4JFJPGI5MTcHOSU/w640-h182/IMG_7875.HEIC" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">16 March 1451 MT</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvBDyLu5ddw6VIjVidyyu5jH2apLoJmEgClJcreFLqvTB4lvtG-LE-DcZTKtHfAaCyHZbQTO78sqdwEqmz5ncFKT_F41PyucP10cKqey3Lh9YEV3gBMjrfkAXvIB62TbASq1BXzmuS01B5EAVVPXAEjRuNpnRgEMHuEYElNq1LcsBbDUWPApxUTpuOB_Q/s4032/IMG_7877.heic" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvBDyLu5ddw6VIjVidyyu5jH2apLoJmEgClJcreFLqvTB4lvtG-LE-DcZTKtHfAaCyHZbQTO78sqdwEqmz5ncFKT_F41PyucP10cKqey3Lh9YEV3gBMjrfkAXvIB62TbASq1BXzmuS01B5EAVVPXAEjRuNpnRgEMHuEYElNq1LcsBbDUWPApxUTpuOB_Q/w400-h300/IMG_7877.heic" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">16 March 1509 MT</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">We were located at the base of the arrow in this GOES-16 cloud phase RGB. The image shows a complex assortment of clouds in liquid (blue), glaciated (green), and cold-topped (yellow). I tried to find the particular cloud associated with this scene, and given that it's just about in top of us, I have to admit it's associated with the more bluish cast cloud under the arrow below (the image was taken at 1451 MT). The photo shows mostly falling snow under the cloud and thus I cannot see the liquid portions of the cloud. But the clouds to the left part of the panorama above do appear to have that more clumpy appearance of active condensed liquid convection. And there were liquid clouds following the shower as it passed to the east of us in the bottom picture. But I suspect we're seeing showers on a scale that's hard for the GOES to pick out in the near IR bands. If you look at the animation, you may see that these showers were passing through wave clouds on the west side of the caldera and maybe scrubbing back and forth may reveal them more easily.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh47TajqSl37cyhNAQfW8nWPQsltoQtctUdJT90sn2O4Czfir5ONhtpPJ7lBMpad81i39nAVIqhfZpbWrLfLRALW7fE7PmT5pFDMuzEt5HRpiye5dS5y8IcgYMuzzinGcrq22sXMQAOpHt07P1YWKz_ODhFC5UrRWCmkpPAvvZL_yKSRixDAKDheFhmfZo/s634/20230316-G16-dayphase-2051z.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="418" data-original-width="634" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh47TajqSl37cyhNAQfW8nWPQsltoQtctUdJT90sn2O4Czfir5ONhtpPJ7lBMpad81i39nAVIqhfZpbWrLfLRALW7fE7PmT5pFDMuzEt5HRpiye5dS5y8IcgYMuzzinGcrq22sXMQAOpHt07P1YWKz_ODhFC5UrRWCmkpPAvvZL_yKSRixDAKDheFhmfZo/s320/20230316-G16-dayphase-2051z.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">animation located <a href="https://youtu.be/0HefpXfsj9k" target="_blank">here</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2xzJwgzOxIYkUR6sVpRn_UYgvk_gPDdN5LdLV3p_fsHr49c0EtdIM9rhwPIv0jDMLU3siSLcVbFru_iHWlijfvmpY5ciaYTVVBGOsobjPY8y0ga-ui0kzA7AME7zXrt7RNUNEPTkRCsIH9kuh8fLOaIVsj-A_0pbzidrm-0rTIHa6qFvQTG03R2NKXnI/s7008/20230316-JGLARIV-150019.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4672" data-original-width="7008" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2xzJwgzOxIYkUR6sVpRn_UYgvk_gPDdN5LdLV3p_fsHr49c0EtdIM9rhwPIv0jDMLU3siSLcVbFru_iHWlijfvmpY5ciaYTVVBGOsobjPY8y0ga-ui0kzA7AME7zXrt7RNUNEPTkRCsIH9kuh8fLOaIVsj-A_0pbzidrm-0rTIHa6qFvQTG03R2NKXnI/s320/20230316-JGLARIV-150019.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">16 March 1501 MT</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The ABQ sounding a couple hours later pretty much reveals the cold instability prevalent around the area. These showers were moving to the east as would be expected with the wind profile in the sounding. There were even</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><img border="1" height="280" name="sndg" src="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/20230316/soundings/23031700_SNDG/ABQ.gif" width="400" /></div><br /><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">The next day 17 March</p><p style="text-align: left;">More overnight snow left behind a magical scene in the high terrain. Santa Fe ski area received something like 20" of powder overnight and a healthy deep snow cover. It took a lot to get these at 12kft MSL, namely in the form of a challenging route uphill.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKomVvDfPD49qgdudtPN5BpeGeNpblnzb7UvuSRhqK3a43FOKbq4L0U4MPO1DwMeKZvDR2iFYOueZUcIu9idpE8qqkHDnYaamAP8dRCg5DFlsbI3mMFvq9DlgEReDcPqbq2USAnuirLXWikYlpHtLnWkiifD0hf2zpBvngyU-RsyFb2mrfrUTa5F7UFvI/s4032/20230317-iphone-112727.HEIC" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKomVvDfPD49qgdudtPN5BpeGeNpblnzb7UvuSRhqK3a43FOKbq4L0U4MPO1DwMeKZvDR2iFYOueZUcIu9idpE8qqkHDnYaamAP8dRCg5DFlsbI3mMFvq9DlgEReDcPqbq2USAnuirLXWikYlpHtLnWkiifD0hf2zpBvngyU-RsyFb2mrfrUTa5F7UFvI/s320/20230317-iphone-112727.HEIC" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvRt_NpPMnKpWXkSyaHAiTNQ6ZDRwGvjFxTtj4UIhc5MpfToAYIUKJLrh6ayX1wowUCnW87d0EapmSieKwOIwWbvwXTxe7T7aXHCCf1yhvEcB8XFuQXuydWWvzCsb3aZZ5hKq9JRU4XBCOV_ahsy-fgcS5KSPodvrgLvokLKPWCrFJIjb8V_PWYc2mBN4/s4032/20230317-iphone-133450.heic" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvRt_NpPMnKpWXkSyaHAiTNQ6ZDRwGvjFxTtj4UIhc5MpfToAYIUKJLrh6ayX1wowUCnW87d0EapmSieKwOIwWbvwXTxe7T7aXHCCf1yhvEcB8XFuQXuydWWvzCsb3aZZ5hKq9JRU4XBCOV_ahsy-fgcS5KSPodvrgLvokLKPWCrFJIjb8V_PWYc2mBN4/s320/20230317-iphone-133450.heic" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir4hj-0pMy7Dihxffo5d-uxLx2nFC1uW5n8EpHwL6BPShGsjvBOMbQckjps9c3wZC4ruBIckUQwHgOgAdzVMemAo9WyU9JFuBnGReqOJhYZwcE1u-Rrd7ANKLv67fXt6dGZNVpGcj6Iv8sUz3x9dHT3GWCRIAH_MzqzLAMhfybiIKeTu0x-x1wdyvUt6k/s4032/IMG_7927.HEIC" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4032" data-original-width="3024" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir4hj-0pMy7Dihxffo5d-uxLx2nFC1uW5n8EpHwL6BPShGsjvBOMbQckjps9c3wZC4ruBIckUQwHgOgAdzVMemAo9WyU9JFuBnGReqOJhYZwcE1u-Rrd7ANKLv67fXt6dGZNVpGcj6Iv8sUz3x9dHT3GWCRIAH_MzqzLAMhfybiIKeTu0x-x1wdyvUt6k/s320/IMG_7927.HEIC" width="240" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><b>Severe Weather 2023</b><div><br /></div><div>This year presented an odd season of severe weather to Oklahoma and the surrounding Plains states. First of all, central OK was an epicenter of tornado activity that started early in the season but then continued into July. The June to early July action was unusually high for places that should've seen the season decline. And this was especially true for areas from Arkansas to southern Georgia! </div><div><br /></div><div>Let's start with 26 February and the Norman tornado. It was a big day for so early and the first moderate risk of the year for OK. The Norman NWS has a great <a href="https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-20230226" target="_blank">summary page</a> on this event. Take a look at it before viewing this video.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="346" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pmV0aUg8Qic" width="416" youtube-src-id="pmV0aUg8Qic"></iframe></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Early on the emphasis of greatest risk was northwest of Norman. We were only seeing a wavy line coming for us. But looking upstairs revealed that a supercell was embedded in the line. See it below with the elevated scan as the storm was just passing east of Chickasha. The tornado warning was covering a low-level circulation on the north side of a bow. But looking aloft, the storm east of Chickasha was sporting a solid mesocyclone and a BWER. Those features persisted for an hour before when the storm was north of Apache. No wonder there was so much lightning with the storm to the northwest of my spot when the storm got closer. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">A little lesson: <i>The NWS Warning Decision Training Division covers all of these tornado predecessor signatures in its flagship <a href="https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/rac/outline.php" target="_blank">Radar Applications Course</a>, especially the lesson on <a href="https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/rac/severe/tornado-hazards/presentation_html5.html" target="_blank">identifying tornado hazards</a>. With this environment, the watch and and the environment that screams tornado, I can't have enough radars to evaluate this storm. So for you spotters and chasers, watch out for not checking the latency of the data. Also, the level-III data doesn't include the higher scans I show below. It's encouraging that some radar providers are offering level-II but that data doesn't include dealiased velocity data. Hopefully level-III will include all scans soon.</i> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwY-CGOxp4iW0Ex-1DK83HCyM6xrZPF1TsiHOXjyiuGOydRjV-Kj9ndWVVEEyuvqvfHybJGF9SVfujx7pww4EPU3SJ7RiNhgDuMVJY7bwMO5yOifdt2qFXFYxRzBu3IhKjX76Y0JCHQbBf9LmiTaegfwwgyu6k5QOU7ZxlW-YBY9AIT5fjfnNE3USEE-A/s2554/20230227-KTLX-ZSRM-0256z.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1396" data-original-width="2554" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwY-CGOxp4iW0Ex-1DK83HCyM6xrZPF1TsiHOXjyiuGOydRjV-Kj9ndWVVEEyuvqvfHybJGF9SVfujx7pww4EPU3SJ7RiNhgDuMVJY7bwMO5yOifdt2qFXFYxRzBu3IhKjX76Y0JCHQbBf9LmiTaegfwwgyu6k5QOU7ZxlW-YBY9AIT5fjfnNE3USEE-A/w400-h219/20230227-KTLX-ZSRM-0256z.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="text-align: left;">About 57 seconds into the video, you see leaves blowing to the north and then abruptly turn about and blow to the south. It looks like I came into the outer periphery of the tornado cyclone. However this radar scan shows something different. The vortex wasn't coming upon me, it was a forward flank boundary, or the outflow boundary that hit. Clearly the boundary was amazingly sharp, and it may have shown remarkable shear. After it passed, there was strong inflow into the back of the tornado and that's where the wind increased so much.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><span> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVi1saeWA6qSQV_tJEgck-Wn1u0i_zid2t6qFl5Nik6Dhb0dbp2sqAE9YmVDprv8zHJodLxgb8ftL7nvkcRyHig-RNcKCK0c2DrpGwq6mAMsbOFp9na3GDMTCmSM0qgq_GxOQVhd0ksPcASOoBFn8PueFTJSQ67kIk1C-tfgMTe7v66NFSx3m5Bgcyoms/s2486/20230227-ktlx-ZVCCKDP-0315z.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1400" data-original-width="2486" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVi1saeWA6qSQV_tJEgck-Wn1u0i_zid2t6qFl5Nik6Dhb0dbp2sqAE9YmVDprv8zHJodLxgb8ftL7nvkcRyHig-RNcKCK0c2DrpGwq6mAMsbOFp9na3GDMTCmSM0qgq_GxOQVhd0ksPcASOoBFn8PueFTJSQ67kIk1C-tfgMTe7v66NFSx3m5Bgcyoms/w400-h225/20230227-ktlx-ZVCCKDP-0315z.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div><span><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;">The days afterward, I was amazed at the massive recovery mobilization underway. The Lloyd Noble parking lot (1/4 mi on a side) was half full of electrical bucket trucks from the entire state and outside. They used our spot for their mobilization. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq2lsPCESLsfaPMlOECXsNXPwZN6QoY_O__lojKHfdEmg2WWgqT507nEXLsBea8K74rs7nkxzZQyi94armuyFqwr3FlHkbMwfQ6vUjcbR6AV5EVNEMwqioQ3FTRDe6vEr-F75u9kB3tmGGuXA-22RUToqkjTJwSnGnSKxwrQtfcMunVZndx3Qhm6H_Fhw/s16306/IMG_7697.HEIC" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3704" data-original-width="16306" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq2lsPCESLsfaPMlOECXsNXPwZN6QoY_O__lojKHfdEmg2WWgqT507nEXLsBea8K74rs7nkxzZQyi94armuyFqwr3FlHkbMwfQ6vUjcbR6AV5EVNEMwqioQ3FTRDe6vEr-F75u9kB3tmGGuXA-22RUToqkjTJwSnGnSKxwrQtfcMunVZndx3Qhm6H_Fhw/w640-h146/IMG_7697.HEIC" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>I could say a lot more about the damage survey but I will leave that for another blog.</p><p>19 April Central OK tornadoes</p><p>Okay, another tornado, wait, 18 tornadoes, within 30 minutes of our home. Of special note was this picture of the Cole, OK tornado just a couple miles west and yet obscured by rain. From the south, there was a slot with a pretty good view as Sean Ernst demonstrated. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl_AF8Swh4Bx92ohi3sFc55_zDMFR0LOmjR88beMcg1L4rcGsejCXIKoFQErbZWWsLIpp2QoqWcxw3p8f5xju8O3MxOQHhqyW_gINU9xolnyrZ33GKeRF6tUR1BJxrQv1HmNhuBrtPRDPExRd8zpyQmh8jbAlp-jnC32xAIWOckfbYsPDE-1kG1JL8xE4/s3310/20230419-scrngrab-AX53-1840CST.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1892" data-original-width="3310" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl_AF8Swh4Bx92ohi3sFc55_zDMFR0LOmjR88beMcg1L4rcGsejCXIKoFQErbZWWsLIpp2QoqWcxw3p8f5xju8O3MxOQHhqyW_gINU9xolnyrZ33GKeRF6tUR1BJxrQv1HmNhuBrtPRDPExRd8zpyQmh8jbAlp-jnC32xAIWOckfbYsPDE-1kG1JL8xE4/s320/20230419-scrngrab-AX53-1840CST.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBAw9xXB9gQKtec7aPV7ChEjbviVeuTr6qg1JX8CLj8Uim9wd9kwaElkBZIVhWpTBoDyBOH3SZCxW5JqsUkgmJfM8NKcX9hHt9KplFaJjkFWmOFQT-BZFXUDowRCVkUql84sytI7Hc0509QQi6cfElxxOluOiSGwnYj15XB7IQBKL0errZqUu6S3AjE48/s1186/SeanErnstPicColeTor.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="944" data-original-width="1186" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBAw9xXB9gQKtec7aPV7ChEjbviVeuTr6qg1JX8CLj8Uim9wd9kwaElkBZIVhWpTBoDyBOH3SZCxW5JqsUkgmJfM8NKcX9hHt9KplFaJjkFWmOFQT-BZFXUDowRCVkUql84sytI7Hc0509QQi6cfElxxOluOiSGwnYj15XB7IQBKL0errZqUu6S3AjE48/s320/SeanErnstPicColeTor.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://twitter.com/Sean_Ernst_Wx/status/1648902343809744897" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/Sean_Ernst_Wx/status/1648902343809744897</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The view was probably helped by being in a slot of no rain yet there is probably more to it. The bottom line is that being in the path of the tornado, like we were, doesn't always afford the best view but does guarantee that we'd have to move out of the way.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiylglDB0pRIRCFBO8ObTrYG3Cs_PKZw8f8M2lv353CGMSeHHOWvUP9KrzdIfDUDa8Al4LjRVN1FlSJZVCZm3apRdpzsiacUBM63jP_BsjqVF24It578IqcBSSiojyT6Ofsw5R6wHOT6knnrvfJaAKDxkKAPkavI0Ec6kjgij1ZI1k7wERjxB0lHvFzQXQ/s2562/20230420-ktlx-ZVKDPCC-0040z.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1372" data-original-width="2562" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiylglDB0pRIRCFBO8ObTrYG3Cs_PKZw8f8M2lv353CGMSeHHOWvUP9KrzdIfDUDa8Al4LjRVN1FlSJZVCZm3apRdpzsiacUBM63jP_BsjqVF24It578IqcBSSiojyT6Ofsw5R6wHOT6knnrvfJaAKDxkKAPkavI0Ec6kjgij1ZI1k7wERjxB0lHvFzQXQ/w400-h214/20230420-ktlx-ZVKDPCC-0040z.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">However, there was a sweet spot at 7:45 pm where our rear view dash cam provided a remarkable view to the west as the tornado wedged out, briefly. This was to be a theme when trying to get out of its way this year.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRe-mgu-8xSD2uMehvdI9LVTGUIrI47uGMeuIFh7aLYNxTCUIiRjiLbzKoHAsDcLhDjA-VHJ6VahJV4Pd3Y7zPu8H696TUyTVSzpgbzFqAJaSZ9oHfUUNAW1QUduFQa_RH4t0sjJh7GnxHP2zU7LqSo5EWRzBENMRYx-HLznxhMk_8gT4MG_KygjhM_H0/s2370/20230419-RAV4dashcam-1844CST.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1358" data-original-width="2370" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRe-mgu-8xSD2uMehvdI9LVTGUIrI47uGMeuIFh7aLYNxTCUIiRjiLbzKoHAsDcLhDjA-VHJ6VahJV4Pd3Y7zPu8H696TUyTVSzpgbzFqAJaSZ9oHfUUNAW1QUduFQa_RH4t0sjJh7GnxHP2zU7LqSo5EWRzBENMRYx-HLznxhMk_8gT4MG_KygjhM_H0/s320/20230419-RAV4dashcam-1844CST.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">21 June: Matador, TX</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This story occurred on the first day of summer! And it was just four days after the town of Perryton, TX was devastated by another tornado. Photographically, this was a tough storm to deal with. First, it exploded as the final storm in a string that zippered south from east of Amarillo that made positioning hard. It was also embedded in an airmass that was full of high end moisture but also far too hazy for good views beyond a couple miles. Look at the axis of haze right into the storm in northwest TX.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://mtarchive.geol.iastate.edu/2023/06/22/cod/sat/goes16/regional/midwest/truecolor/midwest_truecolor_20230622002618.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="360" src="https://mtarchive.geol.iastate.edu/2023/06/22/cod/sat/goes16/regional/midwest/truecolor/midwest_truecolor_20230622002618.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Add a never-ending barrage of cloud-to-ground lightning, and there was no getting out of our vehicle. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">When the storm exploded and began to form a tornado, rain also wrapped around to compound visibility. We got this view at 7:57 CDT as the tornado began. Even enhanced a bit, the tornado was a suggestion, though enough of one to know. We were 10 minutes prior to Matador getting hit.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEAMQS1VuSUjrFiHB8NX6Ky5-0qxprEyFXYG3IyQx6l4SWDjnYRVOIbmRH3TkNvTMjjgy6wFWkRfmhyphenhyphenRn4YBhTfevnL8Fe3982hvniBpR1RF_fgEe7RBwPD-n0qgq2BfmkTpYwT7hBYZYDMM6QcGBi_iNrjyoBIgSy3gkYlnlkWPiCKlEaenEQM46T5tg/s1920/20230621-JGLARIV-185615-sml.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1920" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEAMQS1VuSUjrFiHB8NX6Ky5-0qxprEyFXYG3IyQx6l4SWDjnYRVOIbmRH3TkNvTMjjgy6wFWkRfmhyphenhyphenRn4YBhTfevnL8Fe3982hvniBpR1RF_fgEe7RBwPD-n0qgq2BfmkTpYwT7hBYZYDMM6QcGBi_iNrjyoBIgSy3gkYlnlkWPiCKlEaenEQM46T5tg/w640-h426/20230621-JGLARIV-185615-sml.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">A few minutes later, this was the view, again out our rearview dashcam while we were a mile north of Matador. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6MaIOahBt7a3mQ1GE-wA-TyJkTqV_TmDBGY5haoqcdqp1JZ7rQ57cQFv02JRrJqxQh3-lr8rnIbSth6ryeKQp6gSFupUs3Be7avtM3OeV3JDwV8pKrmDFk1Vxb_s6e7Q_3LnPUVtp4BJy60fsd5CVYsDw_R7bhqcOIl3n-JNLJZHiGUfNpcYIM8662nw/s3466/20230622-0100z-RAV4dashcam-still.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1926" data-original-width="3466" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6MaIOahBt7a3mQ1GE-wA-TyJkTqV_TmDBGY5haoqcdqp1JZ7rQ57cQFv02JRrJqxQh3-lr8rnIbSth6ryeKQp6gSFupUs3Be7avtM3OeV3JDwV8pKrmDFk1Vxb_s6e7Q_3LnPUVtp4BJy60fsd5CVYsDw_R7bhqcOIl3n-JNLJZHiGUfNpcYIM8662nw/w400-h223/20230622-0100z-RAV4dashcam-still.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In five minutes, the tornado plowed through west Matador while we were driving south to get out of its way, hence more rear views. There was little in the way of visual cues; the storm wasn't visible beyond a mile away. And the sirens didn't blow until a couple minutes before the town was hit. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK0s4I7r5LFBGOXIviEHk1eJhx_YySzi82vV5WIXEzvylYo0m9vRl_TF-msEdJM9ggwXjCWlaR-C8iXuHaoscg_EbluDEkmwfZcLWKrVIgAZkQl9XR0lp8NRrJH3I5ssaiNyouZQgRsq2R4eEv5tsp003-iqwxD61sUievXA-ne1pq-5iFfArNcnrLHXI/s3458/20230622-0105z-RAV4dashcam-still.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1928" data-original-width="3458" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK0s4I7r5LFBGOXIviEHk1eJhx_YySzi82vV5WIXEzvylYo0m9vRl_TF-msEdJM9ggwXjCWlaR-C8iXuHaoscg_EbluDEkmwfZcLWKrVIgAZkQl9XR0lp8NRrJH3I5ssaiNyouZQgRsq2R4eEv5tsp003-iqwxD61sUievXA-ne1pq-5iFfArNcnrLHXI/s320/20230622-0105z-RAV4dashcam-still.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">Even the Lubbock WSR-88D radar had trouble pinning down the tornado location due to side lobe interference. The blue dot was where we were at 8 pm (two pics up). </span></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj49gO5CwFT5bzBXAtIOaq3ZwvtNSpEqJkaEAcZP9FEHf8uOC8jWPSmJKD0PVTa7V6ls6wH3vLxVDVty02MhK5L4WxrFqAnkN0wDCx6ClKirH8NDb5Vye2X6Tc3OGLk1IkeRDMRSXvEX2cfUkbLp0JwjtyPRVbyga3-8ys4VX18ngAhTBDeiX13LfnGBzU/s2452/20230622-klbb-ZVZdr3VIL-e0100z.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1672" data-original-width="2452" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj49gO5CwFT5bzBXAtIOaq3ZwvtNSpEqJkaEAcZP9FEHf8uOC8jWPSmJKD0PVTa7V6ls6wH3vLxVDVty02MhK5L4WxrFqAnkN0wDCx6ClKirH8NDb5Vye2X6Tc3OGLk1IkeRDMRSXvEX2cfUkbLp0JwjtyPRVbyga3-8ys4VX18ngAhTBDeiX13LfnGBzU/s320/20230622-klbb-ZVZdr3VIL-e0100z.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The storm was well depicted once we were really close but by then the only way to get out of harms way was to be already in a vehicle driving away from it. As the tornado narrowed and drifted off of south-bound rt 70, we could take a stop and view it.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsvsIqv8T-a4TtZxrni68ndUL5df2TEcRn-SM7MYmPhrNXgzYoeKLFVkYWGlqaqAUD6KIYhJPxiBTGQ71I8ZLyXC02lcKsIT8e_kj8rSkWuKSsaW_WUtvtr6YSQ97Pw_lxTmy52DSYZz5bgmeioYnqUldUz-0LBBQbqcUV7JiufjbkugYBEXuL0-hO4_0/s7008/20230621-JGLARIV-190750-2nd-watermark.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4672" data-original-width="7008" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsvsIqv8T-a4TtZxrni68ndUL5df2TEcRn-SM7MYmPhrNXgzYoeKLFVkYWGlqaqAUD6KIYhJPxiBTGQ71I8ZLyXC02lcKsIT8e_kj8rSkWuKSsaW_WUtvtr6YSQ97Pw_lxTmy52DSYZz5bgmeioYnqUldUz-0LBBQbqcUV7JiufjbkugYBEXuL0-hO4_0/w640-h426/20230621-JGLARIV-190750-2nd-watermark.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Finally, here is a <a href="https://youtu.be/ZxcHEAF9zrk" target="_blank">video</a> of the sequence. I'm not full of words on scene as I tended to be quiet while focusing on getting out of its way. NWS Lubbock also has an excellent <a href="https://www.weather.gov/lub/events-2023-20230621-Matador-Tornado" target="_blank">web page </a>on this storm.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">BTW, Matador was hit and there were fatalities. It could've been worse as the main portion of the town escaped on its east side.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div><br /></div><b>Storm Art</b><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRSyV-m1XhqSxBp2HSxB2glToT4vmwSBpNDmrctSODtJU9g7EEdC41e1fTqCaR_4nG_yhFHKenmRwU3iMcpApwm76IWWCrPEn_f_kDyhqI5hV47G90qtCrKw6KOq7cXSjAhpNCp16bXOD8l88HHwk6DthEhzcDklLO3xaCYUwloa4kwMc0E0DxiukSo2A/s6952/20230402-JGLARIV-183427-HDR.JPEG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4635" data-original-width="6952" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRSyV-m1XhqSxBp2HSxB2glToT4vmwSBpNDmrctSODtJU9g7EEdC41e1fTqCaR_4nG_yhFHKenmRwU3iMcpApwm76IWWCrPEn_f_kDyhqI5hV47G90qtCrKw6KOq7cXSjAhpNCp16bXOD8l88HHwk6DthEhzcDklLO3xaCYUwloa4kwMc0E0DxiukSo2A/s320/20230402-JGLARIV-183427-HDR.JPEG" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGbw9AhUHGTzkgBvr8JIpRcayM9mPb9FxvzWXVebXR0bqxVBT3msaddXAokbfBvlI2Nda2yNdCaZDt-Hl5fOpMEuJuNwhAtzHnwsGuEsCO2P0p-iYbRi7p4z8jAcL2f609R_QxJsL3TAfb_V6SSvXXmTdwcugmafS8ZNpKcP5sMhLDxmTFRfwEUdg_yyY/s6872/20230402-JGLARIV-185801-HDR-2.JPEG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4581" data-original-width="6872" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGbw9AhUHGTzkgBvr8JIpRcayM9mPb9FxvzWXVebXR0bqxVBT3msaddXAokbfBvlI2Nda2yNdCaZDt-Hl5fOpMEuJuNwhAtzHnwsGuEsCO2P0p-iYbRi7p4z8jAcL2f609R_QxJsL3TAfb_V6SSvXXmTdwcugmafS8ZNpKcP5sMhLDxmTFRfwEUdg_yyY/s320/20230402-JGLARIV-185801-HDR-2.JPEG" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">A supercell on 02 April south of Laguna Park, TX lasted quite awhile, starting out near Stephenville, TX as an HP but then evolved backward to this dry-end classic as it encountered a cap. The storm performed enough to be photogenic and the residents were happy the expected tornado potential for the day didn't pan out. Here is the SPC <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20230402" target="_blank">events page</a> for the day.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnkPQzoEwjyzv4BC9EmseSo8DXUkuno0K6Gx-IfpSVcFDjRBvzHPoI-ocp4ENymNJaBBohko_xL4sHsBYoAcy9XQb-bAHqY5Ls9Q09lOcdkvWqIfBnb6wLtSP4RenvwpII9w-jnRWFYvmFpHXd9bmEvfPGOJ1fARSGCFygo0ttRqKVQaPrrWzv8FYfY0A/s7008/20230419-JGLARIV-180944.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4672" data-original-width="7008" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnkPQzoEwjyzv4BC9EmseSo8DXUkuno0K6Gx-IfpSVcFDjRBvzHPoI-ocp4ENymNJaBBohko_xL4sHsBYoAcy9XQb-bAHqY5Ls9Q09lOcdkvWqIfBnb6wLtSP4RenvwpII9w-jnRWFYvmFpHXd9bmEvfPGOJ1fARSGCFygo0ttRqKVQaPrrWzv8FYfY0A/s320/20230419-JGLARIV-180944.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">The supercell before striking Cole, OK on 19 April</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">This storm's updraft was much wider than the preceding supercell or the pics from Laguna, TX and it clearly became more tornado than expectations from earlier on. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfJe7DTTX1lz-dtJOfclhR5ToDhMIjWM8WmjaODo09Ki-xfol81CJb_VKfZbc9XHl4lSJnBU3aot8FQP3j53oVuT5-qJAq1UiOYgaxMo413zeBKAltOdzgcV0R-tLidh2gaKFYepCPhdouCpA89g3-L1JEiLhlP05EicQUDx-Duun5jFAyKMUyL8f4rLY/s4032/20230511-iphone-204049.HEIC" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfJe7DTTX1lz-dtJOfclhR5ToDhMIjWM8WmjaODo09Ki-xfol81CJb_VKfZbc9XHl4lSJnBU3aot8FQP3j53oVuT5-qJAq1UiOYgaxMo413zeBKAltOdzgcV0R-tLidh2gaKFYepCPhdouCpA89g3-L1JEiLhlP05EicQUDx-Duun5jFAyKMUyL8f4rLY/s320/20230511-iphone-204049.HEIC" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Cole again? Yep. This pic was taken on 11 May in a much more relaxed setting. There was an abundance of research assets deployed on this storm with great datasets being studied. The rest of my family saw this and I vicariously witnessed it driving back from KC. Here is the WFO Norman <a href="https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-20230511" target="_blank">event page</a> for today. (photo by Daphne LaDue) </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxO6rdz9ISolmtwA0thodgeV_TZW02nGfqmLhbKF9gszX_uPFn1zF4M7gGNhvf3RRwZQCiDqYBp3jUhu89C8dx7rD4nZqPpedGWOoakIT34We75zFBXQvy54TgWVucF4ZcAC862H6WRXOcOYB6zOP3wCWQdMxL9tvYyInHwXzrfWObLYxajwaTR5wlOAs/s6204/20230615-JGLARIV-195930.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4151" data-original-width="6204" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxO6rdz9ISolmtwA0thodgeV_TZW02nGfqmLhbKF9gszX_uPFn1zF4M7gGNhvf3RRwZQCiDqYBp3jUhu89C8dx7rD4nZqPpedGWOoakIT34We75zFBXQvy54TgWVucF4ZcAC862H6WRXOcOYB6zOP3wCWQdMxL9tvYyInHwXzrfWObLYxajwaTR5wlOAs/s320/20230615-JGLARIV-195930.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">An embedded supercell west of the National Weather Center on 15 June. I was embedded in the Norman WFO warning ops but managed to get out and sneak in some lightning pics. The aqua cast above the lowest plates seems to be a common feature with dense and wide precipitation cores whether daylight or embedded lightning is the light source. This was a big event day for Norman's and Amarillo's county warning areas. The damaging Perryton, TX occurred today, as well as a significant tornado supercell tracking through southwest Oklahoma. See <a href="https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-20230615" target="_blank">Norman's </a>and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ama/June_15_2023_Perryton_Tornado" target="_blank">Amarillo's </a>events pages.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIZQ09N_75OfBBzEOYlYCRhEb8XSgDNnI2mQNXvAiH17vmdL_EhsTVl0hJaSNawNvOasmksMa4fs3yAom1Fk49TCQcB-oAGjxdMC492P0nmvpo9NOWICxOg2ajcyjLYYNhrJZy0WzuyR98SYTsyDLmhh7n9dtid2AE7EvjlU-iDL5wkwCJPe3Iwd-him0/s7008/20230527-JGLARIV-192922.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4672" data-original-width="7008" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIZQ09N_75OfBBzEOYlYCRhEb8XSgDNnI2mQNXvAiH17vmdL_EhsTVl0hJaSNawNvOasmksMa4fs3yAom1Fk49TCQcB-oAGjxdMC492P0nmvpo9NOWICxOg2ajcyjLYYNhrJZy0WzuyR98SYTsyDLmhh7n9dtid2AE7EvjlU-iDL5wkwCJPe3Iwd-him0/s320/20230527-JGLARIV-192922.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">A supercell east of Plains, TX on 27 May. This storm didn't have the aqua color, perhaps the core wasn't thick enough to attenuate the longer wavelengths. But it did have this yellowish green color suggesting some of the sunset colors were being attenuated but not all. This storm did produce a tornado on the TX/NM border and I was there with my partner, Harald Richter, but the tornado was not obvious unless with a closer view. SPC has an <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20230527" target="_blank">events page</a> here, and Jeff Piotrowski has a <a href="https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1662694604976820224" target="_blank">post</a> about this.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmkzk3lMgBM7eb4ht6hHK7q6ADMkz0b4XNWj9YhCxQN8f7NGUELzhK9hPzA8c95AoUZCTIdKi7FJzmAoWODGKjip9jD9k5PzBc6snjuZqeSzv4WM3poT21bHaAlVlmMWQ_5AITtoV77NG3Y9siu_IE7omfnc5Cge2P9ecLisoJqIT2AkBuWqj5zpzNNEI/s7008/20230617-JGLARIV-185955.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4672" data-original-width="7008" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmkzk3lMgBM7eb4ht6hHK7q6ADMkz0b4XNWj9YhCxQN8f7NGUELzhK9hPzA8c95AoUZCTIdKi7FJzmAoWODGKjip9jD9k5PzBc6snjuZqeSzv4WM3poT21bHaAlVlmMWQ_5AITtoV77NG3Y9siu_IE7omfnc5Cge2P9ecLisoJqIT2AkBuWqj5zpzNNEI/s320/20230617-JGLARIV-185955.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">A nasty hybrid supercell/bow west of Fort Supply, OK on 17 June. This storm blew through Laverne with one tornado reported in the vicinity. But the big story was the hurricane force winds and then the continuing swath of wind reports all the way into eastern OK where other tornadoes were reported. SPC has an <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20230617" target="_blank">events page</a> on this storm.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEildaGumLloiXIBfWMT8Wt_7a0BC8n9_pbxo0QJ3UBjn2RzWKVALG4X0zHy3HMH5orEhIBmdd0qHwgOU3ZUm-bPaQazt1TFmHXoSyszDGLHFZwNG2nz2tVIjywrwg_cD55Reldtg_UhPrhhLmgrfDgFjtMH01FqnnACQTjxG2ji9xnn0uihtnMuFQiSZh0/s7008/20230827-JGLARIV-183708-3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4672" data-original-width="7008" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEildaGumLloiXIBfWMT8Wt_7a0BC8n9_pbxo0QJ3UBjn2RzWKVALG4X0zHy3HMH5orEhIBmdd0qHwgOU3ZUm-bPaQazt1TFmHXoSyszDGLHFZwNG2nz2tVIjywrwg_cD55Reldtg_UhPrhhLmgrfDgFjtMH01FqnnACQTjxG2ji9xnn0uihtnMuFQiSZh0/s320/20230827-JGLARIV-183708-3.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Lightning flashes over downtown Florence, IT on 27 August. I had a lucky hotel room with a view for this event which occurred around 0200 LT. I set up the camera so that I didn't have to think when the expected storms rolled through.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidcR-3DeWwo3gQcIFU2RnrnHBLQ1s6HRZpNZL9saweDfjt98BD2TY1Fr9r2PnHHraiYsq1XmfZHHaPujKLoR11jXeD0hstXd-5XsFH7M8W0Qvj8DBcKCF3d-ue3pC4klLk9MU7VDVYW-4Xm2kMRzz2HiEcEvVh80gGZG5ivCBBwH9URJXg9AryLoR8XNw/s6972/20230923-JGLARIV-174141-HDR.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4648" data-original-width="6972" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidcR-3DeWwo3gQcIFU2RnrnHBLQ1s6HRZpNZL9saweDfjt98BD2TY1Fr9r2PnHHraiYsq1XmfZHHaPujKLoR11jXeD0hstXd-5XsFH7M8W0Qvj8DBcKCF3d-ue3pC4klLk9MU7VDVYW-4Xm2kMRzz2HiEcEvVh80gGZG5ivCBBwH9URJXg9AryLoR8XNw/s320/20230923-JGLARIV-174141-HDR.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Rapidly developing storm north of Bristow, OK on 23 September. This became a supercell briefly but was embedded in too many other storms for it to complete its transition. The storm of the day was southeast of Ada which I'm happy to see made <a href="https://twitter.com/spahn711/status/1740949676579504451" target="_blank">Alex Spahn's</a> year highlights.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm6G42JtffKKMu30o6fZhTz-31inpfD096XzshLpD7lhSGbd9xOHDO5MwtHhU_8dOgQFaJ1zYp_UGl1hKAiqhrxamCNzpqWbROvf_BY5qUrSUwCMvJeQiM-dJ-IzpTw_paYoBc39yP6nZELNbsYgawTU7vFKjKUX1imLo_-xJAle2-2dZB_AYyQ-uD6l8/s6778/20231004-JGLARIV-153054-5.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4519" data-original-width="6778" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm6G42JtffKKMu30o6fZhTz-31inpfD096XzshLpD7lhSGbd9xOHDO5MwtHhU_8dOgQFaJ1zYp_UGl1hKAiqhrxamCNzpqWbROvf_BY5qUrSUwCMvJeQiM-dJ-IzpTw_paYoBc39yP6nZELNbsYgawTU7vFKjKUX1imLo_-xJAle2-2dZB_AYyQ-uD6l8/s320/20231004-JGLARIV-153054-5.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">A fall storm west of Weistheimer Airport, Norman on 04 October briefly gets that look. It was quickly consumed by other storms but a brief unexpected photogenic structure is a bonus on Daphne's birthday. Here is SPC's <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20231004" target="_blank">events page</a>.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><br /></div>Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-13218809177992044842020-05-30T14:03:00.004-07:002022-07-01T15:53:33.539-07:00In memory of Leslie Lemon, Severe Storms researcher<div class="kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q" style="font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;">
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OMG. I’m saddened to hear my colleague and friend passed away yesterday. I worked with Leslie (Les) Lemon for several years while he was part of WDTD’s family. He was the consummate meteorological observationalist, always enthusiastic, ever happy to share his insight, yet humble in ways. He loved our new NWS students as they came through our doors. His talks to them about tornadic thunderstorms reminded me of a comfortable easygoing fireside chat where the students were transfixed by his gift of storytelling and teaching at the same time. He routinely received the highest score of any of our workshop talks. </div>
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He was so excited to chat with me looking at this or that storm live on radar or perhaps after the fact. I remember more than one time where the excitement he was feeling began to spill over to us. If I felt like needing a break from the bureaucracy I’d just go over to his office and talk about the weather. Perhaps the most amazing one of these times was when we had one screen the live feed of James Spann on while a large tornado was going through Tuscaloosa. The other screen was the GRLEVEL2 display of the Birmingham, AL radar data. We were both simultaneously in awe of seeing the high-end tornadic radar signature and of course horrified at the visual of the tornado hitting the city. The Greensburg, KS storm was another. I know that Mike Umscheid<span style="font-family: inherit;"> and he wrote a wonderful conference paper on that one. </span></div>
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I can’t put down the impact Les had on the operational weather community. In many ways, he was like Ted Fujita except with Doppler Radar data. He has the Lemon technique of diagnosing severe thunderstorm structure on the radar. This is what every NWS meteorologist and most other operational meteorologists learn in radar interpretation courses. Much of his technique he wrote about in publications. One of those is the infamous Lemon and Doswell (1979) paper. His technique still forms the backbone of severe storms warnings decision making today, even with Dual-pol radar data. I worked with him to modify the technique with dual-pol but it remains his. So instead of the enhanced Lemon technique, it’s the modified Lemon technique but always with his attribution, just like with the enhanced Fujita Scale. </div>
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Les always seemed underemployed. He never held a position commensurate with his skills and perhaps the closest he came was either with the lab way back or with WDTD. That he seemed underemployed was our problem. As with many truly smart people, sometimes society just hasn’t figured out to tap their full potential. Les’s intelligence was in his ability to observe relationships and note trends then convert them to something actionable. He also had the ability to teach in ways that made concepts stick. He wasn’t a programmer, a statistician, or a production engine of content that yielded obviously high marks in ROI. The benefits he brought could not be easily measured but I think it’s safe to say we know it now when we see it. Isn’t this so similar to some of the invaluable weather data we use and can’t live without, like visible satellite data? </div>
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I’ll think of more to say and look for pics later. Clearly, my mind is recalling other memories, of which there are many. Of this I can say, he’s right up there with Liz Quoetone and others when it comes to impact on me in the realm of operational meteorology. I foresee that the severe storms conference coming up should be an excellent time to remember his achievements.]</div>
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I'm going to add to this post a few more memories. </div>
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First, here's a picture of him back in the Techniques Development Unit of SELS. This is in a paper on the <a href="https://ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/article/view/13/15" target="_blank">history of severe storms research</a> in the EJSSM: </div>
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Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-76996061731376888442020-05-28T07:32:00.002-07:002020-05-28T08:32:44.302-07:00Racial injustice is adversely impacting me, a white guy<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="498bg" data-offset-key="e3tqn-0-0" style="color: #1d2129; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
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A respected member of the American Society for Civil Engineers (ASCE), a professor of engineering at an R1 institution, and a member of a standards committee I chair, wrote this to me just yesterday.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>His message below is directed at the leadership of ASCE, a professional organization of which he's a member.<span class="apple-converted-space"> He's anonymous in this post. His letter</span> clearly points to the personal threat he feels from our society and a feeling of near despair.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>He wonders why he's focusing on engineering solutions to improving community resiliency when our social fabric is pulling apart.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Is the real threat from society from tornadoes and hurricanes, or is it from our huge social inequality and racism?<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>I think all professional societies need to speak out their positions.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>This personal threat is affecting careers, work productivity, more stress, less productivity, and a threat of a continued downward cycle. <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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From my colleague directed at the ASCE<o:p></o:p></div>
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Dear Glenn:<o:p></o:p></div>
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Today’s my birthday and I should be celebrating in whatever way the COVID-inspired lockdown will allow. I’m not feeling very celebratory at the moment.<o:p></o:p></div>
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I feel very much under a PTSD cloud as I saw the headline I Cannot Breathe, wondering whether this was the anniversary of Eric Garner’s murder in NYC years ago. Alas, this was a new murder, a lynching by members of the Justice System, who replaced the swinging ropes in the live oak trees of a hundred years ago with the Knee on Neck Asphyxiation Technique to end the life of Mr. George Floyd with his face flattened into the asphalt.<o:p></o:p></div>
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We continue to witness these overt racists acts of a society in decline, where this perpetrator, this police officer, who we now know from his social media accounts can meet the President of our country at a rally and receive accolades, then to proceed with that calm, smug look, to kill another person on the street in broad daylight. And yet, as we watch the demise of our politics, and the loss of any conscience and empathy from our leaders, we the public are all silent, as individuals and as institutions. Crickets can be heard over the protests from our media or from our other institutions and businesses.<o:p></o:p></div>
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After the rancor of this news cycle, all that will remain will be comments about who looked better wearing their mask or not, and how much points the stock exchange had gained. No one will remember George Floyd, the man who was killed on 26 May 2020. Because our society continues to turn away from accusing white people of their racism, or confronting our past inhumane acts or addressing the pernicious hatred for the black skin that goes unchecked. Yet we are comfortable maintaining different standards for the value of life, for blacks versus whites. If the politics fail us what then? If our societal norms are fading away why worry? What is the point of striving for the best engineering solutions if the society itself is being torn apart at its seams? Can we blissfully go on, wearing blinkers ignoring these atrocities because “they weren’t attacking engineers”? Surely our ethical and moral duties as engineers extend beyond the bricks and mortar of our daily production.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Our institutions are becoming more and more irrelevant as we ignore the inequities in our society and the daily abuses of our human rights. Imagine the black engineers in SGH who carry this millstone every day. Consider that for them every site visit into a client’s home could end badly. They wear this badge that they could be accused, attacked or killed for being black and in the wrong place. The silence of ASCE, its members and all engineering companies is deafening in the face of this outrage. ASCE is not alone of course, we all are to blame, but why are we so afraid to do what is right? Or have we all accepted two standards in fact exist, one white, one black?<o:p></o:p></div>
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Until the outrage at the murder of another black man at the hands of a police officer is universally felt and loudly expressed, these lynchings will continue. They are used for racial intimidation, and they are sanctioned by our society. Black men and women will continue to keep a wary eye on our white counterparts who may speak fondly about equality from a safe liberal enclave but when the time comes to stand up and defend our rights, they slink away. Somebody else’s problem. As I proudly wear my ASCE Fellows badge, I know it will not protect me. I know my PhD, or my years of experience, and academic research will be of no value when I am confronted by a police officer who wants to kill a black man on that day. At such time, that’s all I will become just another black man to be made an example of.<o:p></o:p></div>
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When the story of our times are written, do consider which side of this divide should ASCE be? Should we simply ignore the politics and continue our production until the American kristallnacht? Or is it time for us to take a meaningful stand? One person can change the world. One company must make a start. One profession can decide enough is enough. Let us be that profession, Glenn. I hope you and your ASCE/SEI Board will have the courage and determination to start this movement among civil engineers as we seek to make our society a livable place for all.<o:p></o:p><br />
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To say that we still continue to see great injustice in the US is an understatement. We’re seeing COVID attack disadvantaged communities more than others. Black, Hispanic, and Native American communities are disproportionately hit because their members often have to risk exposure to make ends meet. Now we continue to see black people suffer violence by police and vigilantes at a much greater rate than others. <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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He's not the only one.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Every person of color (POC) I know of feels personally threatened.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>I heard comments from one that worries every time his son leaves the house.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Another woman worries about her father's safety every time he's on the road. These are people that are also well respected in meteorological circles.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>To paraphrase my colleague below, the unfortunate thing is that their well-deserved degrees, titles, and reputations do nothing to them when they're in a community filled with people that may not know them. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Personally, I'm not immune to my own biases.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>They're so situational.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>I'm easily imagining my POC colleagues in a conference, all of whom I'm in awe of their accomplishments and productivity.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>But put them on a street and in a hoodie and I'm embarrassed to say I might have a different impression.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>The only thing I can do is to use the part of my intellectual brain to overcome such ill-conceived notions and reset my judgment. <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>I will not be that person who calls the police on a black man filling up his car.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>And if I see such injustice, I hope to be that other person that can defend someone being wrongly charged.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>My wife, Daphne, sent these links that point to our rights when stopped by police or to document and report any injustices we see. <span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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"One of the things we can do as his colleagues are to read up on our rights: <a href="https://www.aclu.org/know-your-rights/" style="color: #954f72;"><span class="s1" style="color: #dca10d;">https://www.aclu.org/know-your-rights/</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span class="s2" style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://www.aclu.org/know-your-rights/stopped-by-police/" style="color: #954f72;">https://www.aclu.org/know-your-rights/stopped-by-police/</a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
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And as the white person we could find ourselves in a position to take photographs or video of the police:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span class="s2" style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://www.aclu.org/issues/free-speech/photographers-rights/filming-and-photographing-police" style="color: #954f72;">https://www.aclu.org/issues/free-speech/photographers-rights/filming-and-photographing-police</a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
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'Taking photographs and video of things that are plainly visible in public spaces is a constitutional right—and that includes police and other government officials carrying out their duties. … The right of citizens to record the police is a critical check and balance. It creates an independent record of what took place in a particular incident, free from accusations of bias, lying, or faulty memory. It is no accident that some of the most high-profile cases of police misconduct have involved video and audio records.'"<o:p></o:p></div>
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I wish I could do more but perhaps it's best that we (as whites) just shut up and put ourselves in their shoes.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Put ourselves in the twilight zone and see what would happen if our places in society were flipped.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Maybe practice a few ideas in this article:<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://medium.com/equality-includes-you/what-white-people-can-do-for-racial-justice-f2d18b0e0234" style="color: #954f72;"><span class="s1" style="color: #dca10d;">https://medium.com/equality-includes-you/what-white-people-can-do-for-racial-justice-f2d18b0e0234</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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But at least I can advocate our professional societies to express their intolerance to intolerance.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>Thus I support my colleague's letter to ASCE below and to my other friend who wrote a similar letter to the American Meteorological Society.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>I also write this entry to express my solidarity with my friends and colleagues that feel the threat of racial intolerance.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></div>
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Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-46713647700100017852020-04-06T19:46:00.000-07:002020-04-08T20:48:48.559-07:00Timeline of COVID March-April 8<br />
20200408<br />
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Now we're into the stock market rising as investors are becoming optimistic that we're seeing a global flattening of the curve. Perhaps it's time to take advantage of some relatively discounted stocks. But as the future may look brighter to them, the death rates are peaking and will likely be at a plateau for the next week or two. It's buckle-down time. <br />
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I did go out to Braums yesterday morning–the first that I donned one of the n95 masks I've got around. Braums is a small convenience store attached to a fast food joint. They make their own milk and I figured in the morning it would be relatively uncrowded. I was right. There were only two other shoppers and a cashier. One of them was wearing a mask and that eased my awkward feeling of being the other one with a mask on. After I left, I quickly doffed my mask; doffing means I removed it by the straps only making sure I didn't touch the filter. I think I did okay though the mask did some pirouettes as I took it off. Later I learned that I should've removed one strap at a time starting with the top. Damn, I felt like one wrong move and that's it, I'm hosed. At least I had my wash station in the RAV. It was the third time I used the station. The two other times were 2 weeks before yesterday. My station consists of a flexible 5 gallon plastic container with a faucet that we use for camping and a liquid soap dispenser in the door pocket. It's quite handy and I use it anytime after I touch anything public, or merchandise. <br />
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Upon coming back home, I took the products out of the bag, one at a time, to disinfect on our mobile cutting board in the garage. Then each one goes into another bag to be brought inside. I also took the vegetables and fruit inside to be rinsed. The first time I did this I washed the fruits and veggies with soap but I've heard that's not advisable as soap could be absorbed. As I'm doing this I wonder how long this will go on. No longer do we go out on weekends and I'm the only one going out. Also, I go in the mornings and to smaller stores. Will this go on even after everything opens up? I suspect I may for quite some time.<br />
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Now the latest thoughts. I'm seeing some good news<br />
This story shows promising research in developing an all-encompassing anti-viral medication that can be taken orally. Called EIDD-2801(named after Emory Institute for Drug Development) has been successfully used on mice and is now going to clinical trials. Another anti-viral called Remdesivir is another in trials. Either one can be subject to resistant viruses but the combination can be much more powerful. Here's to successful clinical trials.<br />
<a href="http://news.emory.edu/stories/2020/04/covid_eidd_2801_lung/index.html">http://news.emory.edu/stories/2020/04/covid_eidd_2801_lung/index.html</a><br />
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Another good news item: There are several stories of centenarians surviving this virus. I see an article somewhere in the news every time another one survives. One of them survived the 1918 flu pandemic. How encouraging!<br />
<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bill-lapschies-oregon-veteran-coronavirus-recover-104-years-birthday/">https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bill-lapschies-oregon-veteran-coronavirus-recover-104-years-birthday/</a><br />
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How about decreasing air pollution as good news? Well, I have chosen to call this good news. As shutdowns spread globally, air pollution has remarkably decreased. The most noticeable areas were the most polluted areas. This picture from northern India where residents could see the Himalayas for the first time in 30 years is so poignant to me. How is it that 30 years could go by without people in <span style="background-color: white; color: #2b2b2b; font-family: "roboto"; text-align: center;">Pathankot being able to view the mountains? Imagine residents living there from birth to adulthood seeing the mountains for the first time? It's analogous to residents of cities traveling out into the countryside and seeing the Milkyway for the first time. I cannot imagine what that's like.</span><br />
<a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/audio/himalayas-visible-for-first-time-in-30-years-as-pollution-levels-in-india-drop">https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/audio/himalayas-visible-for-first-time-in-30-years-as-pollution-levels-in-india-drop</a><br />
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These stories have been coming out since early March when China's pollution decreased.<br />
<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/nasa-images-chinas-air-pollution-decreased-amid-coronavirus-measures.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/nasa-images-chinas-air-pollution-decreased-amid-coronavirus-measures.html</a><br />
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Then in mid-March, it was Italy's turn to be in the news about decreasing pollution.<br />
<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-pollution/air-pollution-clears-in-northern-italy-after-coronavirus-lockdown-satellite-shows-idUSKBN2102X4">https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-pollution/air-pollution-clears-in-northern-italy-after-coronavirus-lockdown-satellite-shows-idUSKBN2102X4</a><br />
Imagine how many lives were saved just on the account of having a couple months of clean air. Would there be thousands living by the end of the year that might otherwise not be? It's quite conceivable.<br />
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Other good news comes from Germany where they have been quite successful in their testing. I think only Iceland has exceeded Germany's testing rate. The result is a much better idea of fatality rates as well as helping to flatten the growth curve.<br />
<a href="https://apnews.com/03d48eb93fa6cb66262de6f7d57f27df?fbclid=IwAR1Raxr78A2Cq8xudcOV0uD2JfJxCZeOCyzdIIUcHPqUNZ5sAHzfrXMWMio">https://apnews.com/03d48eb93fa6cb66262de6f7d57f27df?fbclid=IwAR1Raxr78A2Cq8xudcOV0uD2JfJxCZeOCyzdIIUcHPqUNZ5sAHzfrXMWMio</a><br />
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Now for troubling news. This virus is tremendously infectious. And it's only because it takes advantage of our proclivity to spread droplets and aerosols far and wide This story of a Belgian-Dutch study shows that I've got to be 10 m or more away from other runners and bikers because of the wakes we leave behind. My take on this is 'know the wind direction' and stay out of people's wakes. The youtube link below is even more distressing. Using laser beams, Japanese researchers filmed the spray of particles emanating people's sneezes, coughs and even just talking. They modeled the dispersion of these particles and showed how far and wide they travel in a closed room. This makes me not want to ever show up to a conference again.<br />
<a href="https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08">https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08</a><br />
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<a href="https://youtu.be/EPNBHuu755E">https://youtu.be/EPNBHuu755E</a></div>
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Perhaps even more disturbing is that blacks in the US are so worried about wearing masks that they would choose to risk being infected than to be mislabeled as a threat. So here's yet another consequence of racism and fear. Black people are more likely to suffer from infection and also die from COVID-19. Blacks and Hispanics are more likely than others to not be able to telework or have health insurance. Add that to the fear of facial protection and we're starting to see how this disease disproportionately exacts a toll on the same people like with so many other threats.<br />
<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/us/face-masks-ethnicity-coronavirus-cdc-trnd/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/us/face-masks-ethnicity-coronavirus-cdc-trnd/index.html</a><br />
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Finally, Modley resigned a day after he spent $244k to fly down to Guam to berate the crew for their loyalty to a Captain that may have saved many lives. Yay! Now reinstate Capt Crozier after he hopefully recovers well!<br />
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20200406<br />
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Villains in the news regarding COVID: <br />
Our Secretary of the NAVY Thomas Modley berates Aircraft Carrier, Capt Brett Crozier, for appealing for help to unload his ship when his crew became sick. True, Capt Crozier didn't follow through chain of command. But I can't imagine anybody reaching his rank not knowing that. Something forced him to e-mail 30 NAVY officers outside classified channels. In so doing, he was removed from his post while contracting the disease himself. Thomas Modley's erratic, expletive-laden rebuke in front of the Aircraft Carrier's crew did nothing but further alienate the crew from the NAVY's leadership. I put Modley in the list of villains – shameful.<br />
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<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/politics/uss-tr-crozier-modly/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0sSO7eLFaWMsAH72_oUQKsxyDn1XKyGii6IM1HaJO-kxOC3kJ8o5AwSb0">https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/politics/uss-tr-crozier-modly/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0sSO7eLFaWMsAH72_oUQKsxyDn1XKyGii6IM1HaJO-kxOC3kJ8o5AwSb0</a><br />
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Another villain, or ill-advised, Dr. Drew, who spread disinformation about the virus, claiming that it was nothing to worry about, now admits his mistake. How much damage have these people caused (45 included)?<br />
<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/celebrity/dr-drew-apologizes-was-wrong-about-coronavirus-threat/ar-BB12cbT1?fbclid=IwAR3FxDrkouvczdpozPNYhqaGbklhl2uXeH5hAkpgC4QtP7vJDddCqcdOsOc">https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/celebrity/dr-drew-apologizes-was-wrong-about-coronavirus-threat/ar-BB12cbT1?fbclid=IwAR3FxDrkouvczdpozPNYhqaGbklhl2uXeH5hAkpgC4QtP7vJDddCqcdOsOc</a><br />
He learned what it's like to be on the wrong side of the asymmetric penalty function of a warning.<br />
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COVID timeline:<br />
Business Insider has an excellent timeline of this pandemic. It starts December 31 with the Chinese notification to the WHO of a new disease.<br />
<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-timeline-history-major-events-2020-3">https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-timeline-history-major-events-2020-3</a><br />
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But now there are <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/03/26/coronavirus-fact-check-could-your-december-cough-have-been-covid-19/2899027001/?fbclid=IwAR0BHRx6OztA9uNlTRgwTyzFq2JXGg5G60_lPaY4Fy-4Zlq47gpP3HHhWEY" target="_blank">stories</a> that COVID-19 may have been in the US in December. I've heard of people suffering from weeks of severe coughs and fever. It certainly was spreading in Wuhan province since late November.<br />
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Heroes: Grocery Store employees. <br />
I didn't want to hear about this but it was inevitable. Store employees are becoming sick and some are dying. I have an amazing new outlook on the danger they face when dealing with a broad spectrum of shoppers, some adhering to social distancing while others literally sneeze in cashier's faces with perceived impunity. Many employees demanded stores add various measures to mitigate transmission.<br />
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<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/06/supermarket-workers-deaths-coronavirus-/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2aaq4tx-vPMShNd4RjT7nBmxiGqz-yFEA4LTaqV-BlBwgiyxJb5SV1muI">https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/06/supermarket-workers-deaths-coronavirus-/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2aaq4tx-vPMShNd4RjT7nBmxiGqz-yFEA4LTaqV-BlBwgiyxJb5SV1muI</a><br />
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Two weeks ago was the last time I shopped at Sprouts in Norman. At the time, I only saw two shoppers with masks. One store employee greeted me at the entrance with a cart and a wipe. I thanked him much. I went in the morning and so the store was quiet. What shoppers there were kept distances from each other. One shopper had to get by me in a narrow aisle. I turned to face the merchandise and heard her speed up to get by me, much like a cat does when trying to run through a constriction. I bought my groceries and proceeded to the checkout. I talked with the cashier and thanked her for wiping down the conveyor belt. She wore a mask, to which I was grateful. At the time I didn't have one for I followed the advice of professionals that I didn't need one in a store. Case counts weren't as high as they are today. Anyway, I asked the cashier how shoppers were. Her main complaint was that shoppers tended to violate the six-foot rule at checkout; markers were taped on the floor at six-foot intervals. But she didn't mention any more severe violations of social distancing.<br />
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When I go shopping soon, I will be masked and I heard a majority of others are doing the same.<br />
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Mitigation measures: <br />
For weeks we've been reducing our exposure to public spaces. Even since March 16, after we got over our flu-A (yes we had the vaccine), I decided not to fly to my mother's 90th birthday family reunion; Daphne asked that I quarantine myself for five days upon coming back. Daphne hasn't left the house in over two weeks while my outings were limited to a grocery store, the Lowes outside garden center, and Marcum's nursery. Even there, I waited till the checkout cleared out before checking out myself. <br />
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Next time I go out I'll be wearing a mask. But now I see that virus particles linger for quite some time on them. But how many that are left after a day are not viable? Who knows.<br />
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<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-covid19-can-last-on-face-masks-research-study-2020-4?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=sf-bi-main&fbclid=IwAR194uL5CYkAQ52Gp8HRCfVyhWb2qsXrFes3TBNB6iH7kgCI2tzTH6UFLlA">https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-covid19-can-last-on-face-masks-research-study-2020-4?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=sf-bi-main&fbclid=IwAR194uL5CYkAQ52Gp8HRCfVyhWb2qsXrFes3TBNB6iH7kgCI2tzTH6UFLlA</a><br />
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20200404 -<br />
Popular culture-<br />
Somebody just showed us that all of our new cultural behavioral changes have been summed up in various MASH episodes. We've known all along.<br />
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Mao3OzWw9I&feature=youtu.be<br />
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The mask hunt<br />
A shortage of masks has resulted in an international hunt for them, sometimes using less than honorable methods. I just heard Canada may retaliate after Trump redirected 3M to keep all masks within the US. So instead of helping each other, we turn into packs of wolves.<br />
<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/europe/coronavirus-masks-war-intl/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/europe/coronavirus-masks-war-intl/index.html</a><br />
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Crazy conspiracists:<br />
Now, 5G cellphone towers are being attacked because of a certain claim that millimeter-wave radiation is dangerous for the immune system. This article sets the record straight. However I've not known conspiracists to be convinced they're wrong based on one article. Hopefully, anybody wavering on the fence will lean toward rationality.<br />
<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/columnist/2020/03/21/did-5-g-cause-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic/2873731001/?fbclid=IwAR376QnNZ3fKJdlgmyFnb9DhjUnBt3aYm1tCxcH7-XIricb9MU-F339dK-Y">https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/columnist/2020/03/21/did-5-g-cause-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic/2873731001/?fbclid=IwAR376QnNZ3fKJdlgmyFnb9DhjUnBt3aYm1tCxcH7-XIricb9MU-F339dK-Y</a><br />
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The aftermath<br />
What about all the PTSD from going through this crisis? Some stories come from patients in ICU that they're not the same coming out the other end.<br />
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/03/coronavirus-survivors-recovery/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/03/coronavirus-survivors-recovery/</a><br />
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Today's report from Jason Persoff<br />
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COVID Update 4/3</div>
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So the CDC wants people to wear masks now? I'm uncertain about this switch in position when considering the evidence.</div>
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First off, if you're sick, YOU wearing a mask makes a HUGE difference. Masks of any kind reduce the amount of viral particles shed into the air via droplets (main mode of transmission), but does nothing to stop aerosolized particles. This study: Rengasamy S, Eimer B, Shaffer RE. Simple respiratory protection—evaluation of the filtration performance of cloth masks and common fabric materials against 20-1000 nm size particles.Ann Occup Hyg 2010 Jun 28;54(7):789-98, looked at the issue and concluded the following:</div>
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"The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) conducted a study of the filter performance on clothing materials and articles, including commercial cloth masks marketed for air pollution and allergens, sweatshirts, t-shirts, and scarfs.</div>
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Filter efficiency was measured across a wide range of small particle sizes (0.02 to 1 µm) at 33 and 99 L/min. N95 respirators had efficiencies greater than 95% (as expected). For the entire range of particles tested, t-shirts had 10% efficiency, scarves 10% to 20%, cloth masks 10% to 30%, sweatshirts 20% to 40%, and towels 40%. All of the cloth masks and materials had near zero efficiency at 0.3 µm, a particle size that easily penetrates into the lungs."</div>
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But if you're sick, wearing a mask does reduce the particle counts, just not outstandingly. Every bit helps. But do aerosolized particles that are <0.3 microns matter in COVID? This appears to be answered by an excellent study in Nature Medicine.</div>
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This study by Leung NH, et al, (h/t Alan Schenkel) found some pretty big news. Here is the quote and I'll follow that with a summary:</div>
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"Our findings indicate that surgical masks can efficaciously reduce the emission of influenza virus particles into the environment in respiratory droplets, but not in aerosols...This has important implications for control of COVID-19, suggesting that surgical face masks could be used by ill people to reduce onward transmission. Among the samples collected without a face mask, we found that the majority of participants with influenza virus and coronavirus infection did not shed detectable virus in respiratory droplets or aerosols...For those who did shed virus in respiratory droplets and aerosols, viral load in both tended to be low... Given the high collection efficiency of the G-II and given that each exhaled breath collection was conducted for 30min, this might imply that prolonged close contact would be required for transmission to occur, even if transmission was primarily via aerosols, as has been described for rhinovirus colds...Our results also indicate that there could be considerable heterogeneity in contagiousness of individuals with coronavirus...."</div>
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What this study shows is that by ill people wearing masks, they do reduce the risk of disease transmission. But, just talking to someone in a room masked or not, appears not to be a big risk for others to catch the virus since the viral loads in these droplets and aerosols are pretty low. This does *not* account for people coughing or sneezing where viral loads are very high.</div>
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So how should this apply to the issue of masks. I offer this:</div>
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#) If everyone wears some kind of mask, it WILL decrease the frequency of spreading the disease by keeping asymptomatic infected people from having a way to easily transmit it.</div>
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#) Wearing a mask to protect yourself from the disease offers very little protection unless it's a surgical or N95 (or higher grade) mask. BUT, it does still offer SOME protection, even if it's made out of cloth. </div>
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#) Masks may give people a FALSE SENSE of security, but they must be used properly to work at all. You still need to socially distance. Period. Second, removing a mask properly requires you to know how to doff a mask. In short--you never ever touch the front of the mask, only remove the mask with the ties in the back or elastics. Never let your hand or any part of your body come in contact with the front of the mask. That front side of the mask should always be treated as if it is teaming with germs. Wash your hands thoroughly after any contact with your mask--do not doff your mask someplace you can't immediately disinfect.</div>
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#) YOU should not be using a surgical mask or N95 mask if possible--right now tons of healthcare providers NEED these. If you wish to donate yours (which is the correct answer right now), our hospital will take those donations at <a href="mailto:SendCOVIDsupplies@uchealth.org">SendCOVIDsupplies@uchealth.org</a>. Any amount helps preserve our PPE supplies and helps us fight the disease while you stay home.</div>
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#) The fear that there is tons of coronavirus in the air is FALSE. The study from the NEJM (which I've previously nitpicked about its artificiality in a room with no air turnover) does not fly in real life. Studies done on real patients with COVID show very low infectivity with simple talking in the same room. This should mean that you're safe walking about a store for short periods of time, and there's NOT a ton of virus to be found in the air in real life. But run from anyone who sneezes or coughs ;). </div>
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#) If you are ill with anything these days, start wearing a mask if you can tolerate it to decrease your spread to others, and STAY AT HOME. Ideally 10 days following your last fever without the use of anti-fever medications like acetaminophen (Tylenol).</div>
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#) Better yet, just stay home except for necessities or to get some outdoor exercise. And WASH YOUR HANDS!!! ALL THE TIME!!</div>
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Our lost chances for taking action:</div>
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Here's another excellent report on how we lost our chance to take action. The White House was completely inept at personalizing the threat and doing something about it. </div>
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<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true">https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true</a></div>
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What we need to do now to prepare for the next round</div>
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We can't stay locked up forever and neither can we afford to reach herd immunity. So how do we snake our way from being immobile to getting somewhere where we can manage the outbreak until a vaccine appears? You know that as soon as we go back to work once case numbers go down there will be another outbreak. We can't get away with it as long as there are a vulnerable population and viruses lingering. The CDC has to get out of their asses, come up with a plan to deal with spot outbreaks, and be given a blank check to do what it takes.</div>
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<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/whatever-happened-to-the-cdc/2020/04/03/b39f30e0-75d0-11ea-a9bd-9f8b593300d0_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/whatever-happened-to-the-cdc/2020/04/03/b39f30e0-75d0-11ea-a9bd-9f8b593300d0_story.html</a></div>
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I am hearing that the CDC is testing antibody tests.<br />
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20200324<br />
Updates from Jason Persoff<span style="color: white; font-family: , ".applecoloremojiui"; font-size: 13px;"> </span><br />
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Several developments that may be of concern...</div>
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#) First off, the connection to NSAIDs and worsening of disease was incorrect. It was a ramped up rumor mill not connected to any science, but attributed to the WHO. The WHO has no concerns about NSAIDs, so use them as before.</div>
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#) The connections with ACE inhibitors and ARBs is still not clear. Jury's out. However, that's not likely a connection, more of a theoretical risk.</div>
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#) We have been seeing younger people coming in and ending up on the ventilator rapidly. We're talking late teens/early 20s. This is puzzling given the Chinese data, and worrisome to me. Sure, these could be just a couple of aberrant cases, but I also heard Children's Hospital has a couple of kids on ventilators there too. So, while kids, teens, and young adults largely do well, that doesn't mean you should discount the possibility of these age groups getting very sick, very rapidly.</div>
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I'm attaching an internal document on the science of NSAIDs and ACEI/ARBs below from one helluva smart pharmacist of ours if you want the details. More to follow....</div>
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Clinical Pearl - Ibuprofen, ACEi, ARBs, and Steroids in the midst of COVID-19</div>
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By Kyle Molina, PharmD</div>
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In regard to NSAIDs, specifically ibuprofen, there is a report that went viral online yesterday (3/18) that World Health Organization (WHO) is recommending against use the use of ibuprofen for patients with COVID-19. Initially, there was no mention of this on the WHO website or within their media releases. This claim was from external media websites and, stems from the minster of WHO, not a formal recommendation by the WHO1. The WHO minister reportedly made the claim on twitter over the weekend, as mentioned in forwarded BMJ article, based on reports of 4 young healthy French patients who had taken ibuprofen and progressed severe disease. It is important to note that although this is a BMJ article, it is a new piece which has not undergone peer review, and there are calls for retraction of the piece based on the sources of these claims. The reported incidents are attributed to an uncited infectious diseases doctor in the South of France, which per BBC reporting yesterday morning is a social media hoax.2 There is apparently a similar claim floating around on Whatsapp and twitter originating from Ireland which cite similar story, however, the Infectious Diseases Society of Ireland has confirmed that the doctor cited in this claim is not even a real person. The other claim, has been that NSAIDS have previously been shown to exacerbate viral illnesses (most people have been citing the link between NSAID use and severe cutaneous varicella complications). It is not clear to me we can extrapolate this to cutaneous varicella to COVID-19 infection. The final line of arguement, stems from a lancet publication3 examining the link of ACE expression in the role of COVID infection, and cites animal evidence that ibuprofen increase ACE expression – I address the ACE theories below. The Europeans Medicine Agency released guidance yesterday saying there is a lack of a scientific link between ibuprofen use and COVID at this time.4 In addition, WHO has provided explicit clarification that they ARE NOT recommending against the use of ibuprofen – this was posted on their official twitter this morning and represents the WHO’s first official communication on the issue.5</div>
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With respect to ACE/ARBs, given that ACE appears to be a critical site for SARS-COV entry, many are speculating on the role of the enzyme in COVID pathogenesis. Early COVID studies showed a significant number of deaths occurred in those with hypertension, coronary heart disease, and diabetes, disease states associated with higher circulating levels of ACE and frequently an indication for ACE inhibitor or ARB. However, upon multivariate analysis of risk factors associated with in-hospital death from China, hypertension, diabetes, and coronary heart disease did not maintain their univariate association and may be just markers for advance age. Advanced age was a risk factor for in-hospital mortality (OR 1.1; 95% CI 1.03-1.17, P=0.0043) in multivariate analysis.6 ACE inhibitors are not known to prevent transmission or viral replication and may or may not bind the same epitope as SARS-COV-2 does for entry. It is unlikely that these agents prevents transmission via direct inhibition of the enzyme given these agents have not been identified in high throughput screens of related SARS-CoV previously. Another argument being made is that RAAS inhibition, ibuprofen, and TZDs may cause upregulation of circulating ACE, causing patients to be more susceptible to infection or more severe disease. Lines of evidence suggested include that Italians in general use ACEs, whereas South Koreans tend to use other antihypertensive medications, and this may relate to the difference in mortality rates seen between countries. I think we need to be skeptical as there are national differences in age, percentage of smokers, likely comorbidities. In addition, early infection prevention approaches differed significantly between the two countries, and I think we have all read about the burden on the Italian healthcare system this week. There are additionally conflicting animal models with previous SARS infections. The aforementioned Lancet article additionally proposes genetic differences between the ACE polymorphisms which might have a role, but it’s unclear at this time. The American Heart Association, the Heart Failure Society of America, and the American College of Cardiology issued a statement yesterday recommending “continuation of RAAS antagonists for those patients who are currently prescribed such agents for indications for which these agents are known to be beneficial, such as heart failure, hypertension, or ischemic heart disease”.7 With that said, Anthony Fauci, the Director of National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, did say yesterday in an interview with JAMA that he found these theories at least biologically plausible and should be investigated in studies before we make any changes in the use of these agents.8 There is not currently enough information to change practice, and we have no information whether modifying these drug regimens will do more harm than good.</div>
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Steroids have been an additional subject of discussion this week. A study published in JAMA last week indicated that use of methylprednisolone resulted in lower likelihood of death among those who developed ARDS.8 Notably, this was an unadjusted analysis and not the intent of the study, thus is subject to significant confounding. However, there is other RCT level evidence patients with moderate-to-severe ARDS benefit from early dexamethasone administration, therefore it is at least plausibly beneficial for our sickest patients with COVID and ARDS.9 The concern with routine use of corticosteroids in those with COVID is that steroids may diminish humoral immunity and allow for more rapid viral replication, prolonged viral shedding, as seen in some studies of other respiratory viruses including influenza and respiratory syncytial virus.10,11 In contrast, corticosteroids are likely still beneficial among COVID patients with a compelling indication (e.g., asthma, COPD, septic shock, likely ARDS). The risks and benefits of corticosteroids should be carefully weighed for each patient.</div>
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This is all to say we have extremely limited data to suggest we need to change our current practices with use of these medication. In this present time, be very cautious and skeptical of information being reported as it is susceptible to false claims or based on limited evidence. Please critically evaluate recommendations for data support and authenticity.</div>
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I’ll provide updates if any of this information changes and if you have any questions please let me know.</div>
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1. <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/who-recommends-to-avoid-taking-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-symptoms">https://www.sciencealert.com/who-recommends-to-avoid-taking-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-symptoms</a></div>
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2. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/51929628">https://www.bbc.com/news/51929628</a></div>
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3. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8/fulltext">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8/fulltext</a></div>
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4. <a href="https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-gives-advice-use-non-steroidal-anti-inflammatories-covid-19">https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-gives-advice-use-non-steroidal-anti-inflammatories-covid-19</a></div>
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5. <a href="https://twitter.com/WHO">https://twitter.com/WHO</a></div>
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6. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext</a></div>
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7. <a href="https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/articles/2020/03/17/08/59/hfsa-acc-aha-statement-addresses-concerns-re-using-raas-antagonists-in-covid-19">https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/articles/2020/03/17/08/59/hfsa-acc-aha-statement-addresses-concerns-re-using-raas-antagonists-in-covid-19</a></div>
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8. <a href="https://www.pscp.tv/w/1YqJDEbyZgoxV">https://www.pscp.tv/w/1YqJDEbyZgoxV</a></div>
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9. Wu C, et al. Risk Factors Associated With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome and Death in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pneumonia in Wuhan, China. JAMA Intern Med. Published online March 13, 2020. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.0994</div>
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10. Villar et al. Dexamethasone treatment for the acute respiratory distress syndrome: a multicentre, randomised controlled trial. Lancet Resp Medicine. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(19)30417-5">https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(19)30417-5</a>.</div>
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11. Nelson L , et al . Viral Loads and Duration of Viral Shedding in Adult Patients Hospitalized with Influenza, The Journal of Infectious Diseases, Volume 200, Issue 4, 1 August 2009, Pages 492–500, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/600383">https://doi.org/10.1086/600383</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 12px;">12. Moreno G, et al. Corticosteroid treatment in critically ill patients with severe influenza pneumonia: a propensity score matching study. Intensive Care Med 44, 1470–1482 (2018). </span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00134-018-5332-4" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00134-018-5332-4</a><span style="color: white; font-family: , ".applecoloremojiui"; font-size: 13px;"> </span><span style="color: white; font-family: , ".applecoloremojiui"; font-size: 13px;"> </span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-family: , ".applecoloremojiui"; font-size: 13px;">recommendations</span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-family: , ".applecoloremojiui"; font-size: 13px;">recommendations</span><br />
A whole suite of websites brings the grim realizations to us.<br />
The latest site shows in stark terms when each state will go through its own surge and how unprepared they will be. Oklahoma looks to be short 200 ICU rooms.<br />
<a href="https://covidactnow.org/">https://covidactnow.org</a><br />
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20200322<br />
Epidemiologists are the experts in a new spotlight.<br />
We've had epidemiologists who've thwarted other outbreaks come out to give us a picture of what's coming.<br />
<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/?mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=facebook">https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/?mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=facebook</a></div>
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20200318<br />
Our lost chances of taking action:<br />
This article shows how Asian countries learned how to respond to a new outbreak when SARS erupted onto the scene in 2003.<br />
<a href="https://cmr.asm.org/content/20/4/660">https://cmr.asm.org/content/20/4/660</a><br />
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Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-57513257369709070182019-02-17T21:26:00.001-08:002019-02-18T10:21:23.508-08:00Should we be talking about the next atmospheric rivers in the southeast US?If you haven't seen rainfall forecast for the southeast US for the next week, then you should. The impacts from it will be in the form of flooding on all scales. With nearly 10" of rain expected in northern MS to eastern Tennessee, between now and February 23, the Tennessee Valley Authority will have its hands full dealing with all the excessive runoff. The national flood outlook highlights several areas of likely river flooding in the TVA's area of responsibility, and possible flooding over a much broader region from MS eastward to the midAtlantic states.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZEOJwGf8nIfGYFurAfmF-08nbeTzOydTzG6xo2pf8yR2akhO7sqF8oFjZmooXhLq6kYcRyXdOXNNK0spAw9F4RKz1ssvu0dZxyeWcob4pbChD0703ryuhTW53d-6MVV4oPcGB7f8bsfM/s1600/20190218-00z-WPC7dayQPF.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="562" data-original-width="750" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZEOJwGf8nIfGYFurAfmF-08nbeTzOydTzG6xo2pf8yR2akhO7sqF8oFjZmooXhLq6kYcRyXdOXNNK0spAw9F4RKz1ssvu0dZxyeWcob4pbChD0703ryuhTW53d-6MVV4oPcGB7f8bsfM/s320/20190218-00z-WPC7dayQPF.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">WPC's 7 day rainfall outlook made in the evening of Feb 17.</td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuJPMeh2MMXBQppULqCDSrYssGVTgj74SL0TjD8Dw50w1wr7vI5QPuGO2JhzpCdq4wIqHumE44fKHa-NmEf6eNQik60zuOwpOGV3AzZ1ZfNWsCbtd2FI7s9V4fzhfafBbs9reZ5dRnkc0/s1600/Sigfloodoutlook-Feb18-23.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="684" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuJPMeh2MMXBQppULqCDSrYssGVTgj74SL0TjD8Dw50w1wr7vI5QPuGO2JhzpCdq4wIqHumE44fKHa-NmEf6eNQik60zuOwpOGV3AzZ1ZfNWsCbtd2FI7s9V4fzhfafBbs9reZ5dRnkc0/s320/Sigfloodoutlook-Feb18-23.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The NWS significant river flood outlook made on the evening of Feb 17.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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All of this will be made possible by the advent of a nearly stationary deep upper trough in the western US and a ridge on the eastern Seaboard. The passage of several upper-level shortwave troughs moving through the mean trough will allow several extratropical cyclones to pass through the Midwestern states but none of them will be able to sweep a cold front through the Southeast US, and at least a few of them will produce substantial atmospheric rivers. The biggest one will occur in mid- to late week, potentially lasting up to a full day over northern AL to KY. Water vapor transport will possibly exceed 1000 kg per meter per second. This pattern fits closely to what <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00065.1" target="_blank">Moore and co-authors</a> found in 2015 to be associated with extreme precipitation events in the southeast US during the cool season. It's likely this atmospheric river event will come to pass and quite soon after the last one.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgXLgse7LL5XgVVsED1Nepv_aGRAqQBVPJzk8Ug2ze74jaKcNFmUo3REPofewAeV3SkGJDmrwRs6oHC9twfuXtB4g_Fvj-CVa07ojWPaiZzX_cPl8V4iUZwwTJUfiCbLnwqSVuTjKA9CU/s1600/naefs_2019021712_conus_anom_ivt_SFC_72.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="653" data-original-width="805" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgXLgse7LL5XgVVsED1Nepv_aGRAqQBVPJzk8Ug2ze74jaKcNFmUo3REPofewAeV3SkGJDmrwRs6oHC9twfuXtB4g_Fvj-CVa07ojWPaiZzX_cPl8V4iUZwwTJUfiCbLnwqSVuTjKA9CU/s320/naefs_2019021712_conus_anom_ivt_SFC_72.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The forecast integrated water vapor transport forecast from the largest of three atmospheric river events forecast over the period from Feb 18 to Feb 23, courtesy of the North American Ensemble Forecast System. </td></tr>
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Atmospheric rivers have been in the news lately after the flooding rains and huge mountain snows that fell on California last week. And that's with good reason. The sounding site at the National Weather Service, San Diego, CA just registered its highest precipitable water for the cool season. The integrated water transport was at least 750 kg per meter per second. Perhaps the more remarkable aspects of this river was its length and depth. Sheldon Kusselson, retired research scientist at NOAA/NESDIS and an expert in satellite analysis of water vapor, remarked that he's seen few rivers visible all the way up to 300 mb in the layer precipitable water product (see his analysis below). The accompanying rainfall broke the daily record at Palm Springs, CA with nearly 4". Nearby Mount Polamar recorded over a foot of rain. Meanwhile the Sierra added prodigious new snow accumulations to their expanding snow base. Mammoth Mountain added almost six feet. The floods that followed were substantial, especially around Palm Springs. Multiple news sources mentioned atmospheric rivers, including <a href="https://www.livescience.com/64767-atmospheric-river-california-rain-roofalanches.html" target="_blank">LiveScience</a>, <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/atmospheric-rivers-get-an-intensity-scale-like-hurricanes/" target="_blank">Wired</a>, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/15/atmospheric-river-unloads-record-rainfall-california-spurring-flooding-mudslides/" target="_blank">Washington Post</a>.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6dyn0fANi3YMRTMdSPLskQMM0T4K-Sac49MpVKjiAFTyTwIGknehLAW0uzRgMAhmH6wBycukb0AX2yp9Kea3JEcxcCY5vUOGcsGWUwUXVFTTjYUADnqy3tGH0cT8D-C3u-bFRWH9uYTo/s1600/naefs_2019021300_conus_anom_ivt_SFC_12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="653" data-original-width="805" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6dyn0fANi3YMRTMdSPLskQMM0T4K-Sac49MpVKjiAFTyTwIGknehLAW0uzRgMAhmH6wBycukb0AX2yp9Kea3JEcxcCY5vUOGcsGWUwUXVFTTjYUADnqy3tGH0cT8D-C3u-bFRWH9uYTo/s320/naefs_2019021300_conus_anom_ivt_SFC_12.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqLjWa2PjrZMEh5H-2svLRbogWv5OMTw8R2ssrDASm5pgp9heLgnGod5VvCROZO16XMc1fuAZV-w47soeW1Wf69axN2PrhZ9sl-TaQ9glarb29fbk-06CXEQ93YTQOoY9blfId1vJmT3A/s1600/California+Atmospheric+River+Event+At+Four+Layers_Feb14%252C2019.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1600" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqLjWa2PjrZMEh5H-2svLRbogWv5OMTw8R2ssrDASm5pgp9heLgnGod5VvCROZO16XMc1fuAZV-w47soeW1Wf69axN2PrhZ9sl-TaQ9glarb29fbk-06CXEQ93YTQOoY9blfId1vJmT3A/s320/California+Atmospheric+River+Event+At+Four+Layers_Feb14%252C2019.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The 13 Feb 2019 Atmospheric River is analyzed by Sheldon Kusselson, NOAA/NESDIS retired. </td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii4wKn0fxS3s-cqWxZnvIMBJaB7VXBX-DkqEm-63Owd3ntuNJkyIHqRs3LzVU0zAidK_IIrnGwR5LmovOun7yREE4LoEPhHnhZOlkpW5JCmz6v_iM_oAuvwSqOP57a4ENxsllV0ANFY7s/s1600/2019-02-14_10-33-03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="597" data-original-width="897" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii4wKn0fxS3s-cqWxZnvIMBJaB7VXBX-DkqEm-63Owd3ntuNJkyIHqRs3LzVU0zAidK_IIrnGwR5LmovOun7yREE4LoEPhHnhZOlkpW5JCmz6v_iM_oAuvwSqOP57a4ENxsllV0ANFY7s/s320/2019-02-14_10-33-03.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A radiosonde climatology of San Diego precipitable water where the observed value on 13 February far exceeds any previous precipitable water maximum (thin red trace) during the cool season.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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However, I haven't heard any mention of the upcoming atmospheric river in the news media, or for any past flooding events in the Southeastern US. In my recollection, the media only mentioned the term 'atmospheric river' when one struck California, subjecting the state to all the impacts we've heard about last week. And it's probably no surprise either. The precipitation events occurring in the Western US, especially California, are almost completely dominated by atmospheric rivers. As <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0279.1" target="_blank">Mahoney and co-authors in 2015</a> pointed out, heavy precipitation events in the southeastern US, on the other hand, can come from a multitude of synoptic and mesoscale patterns during the warm and cool seasons. They found that 41% of heavy precipitation events were matched to an atmospheric river. I suspect that the term hasn't really caught on without the dominance of atmospheric rivers controlling southeast US heavy rain events.<br />
<br />
But that's not to say that atmospheric rivers shouldn't be recognized as major flood producers in the southeast. Consider the Nashville, TN flood of early May of 2010 where 12-15" of rain flooded the downtown, resulting in huge losses. The event was big enough to trigger the National Weather Service to deploy the only service assessment team that year. The huge rain event was fed by a persistent strong low-level jet, rapidly feeding tropical moisture into mesoscale convective complexes training over the same area for nearly a day. That feed was identified by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00126.1" target="_blank">Moore in 2012</a> to be an atmospheric river drawing moisture northward from Central America. Moore determined that this atmospheric river differed from ones existing solely over the ocean because the low-level jet was partially governed by lee cyclogenesis, and with a stationary midlevel trough to the west, the river wound up stalled.<br />
<br />
This time may be a little different upon considering that multiple shortwave troughs will be traversing through the mean western trough. There will be similarities too. Each transient extratropical cyclone will have a low-level jet forming an atmospheric river with a tap deep into the tropics, particularly the central Carribean. The moisture is already rich along the Gulf Coast with the onset of the first river. There will be no fronts to displace the moisture and thus, little time needed for each cyclone to re-establish an atmospheric river.<br />
<br />
The one question may be, why bother call the upcoming moisture-laden low-level jets atmospheric rivers? Does naming them add value to the awareness of the upcoming rain event, or improve the accuracy of the forecasts? I can't say that the forecasts will be improved. But I do say it's important that we recognize that these processes occur globally. Multiple papers have been written about the role of atmospheric rivers in transporting moisture from the tropics toward the poles (see <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2014.00002" target="_blank">Gimeno and co-authors in 2014</a>, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3095.1" target="_blank">Waliser and co-authors in 2012</a>). They've documented that there are several going on around the Earth at any one time. Thus if so much effort has been made to name these moisture feeds into California, then perhaps we should spend the same time doing the same wherever they occur. As Ralph and co-authors <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0157.1" target="_blank">just recently documented in 2018</a>, the AMS Glossary of Meteorology now has an official definition of an atmospheric river. The definition defines an Atmospheric River to be:<br />
<br />
<b style="font-family: Roboto, serif; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1; text-indent: 14px;">Atmospheric river</b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "roboto" , serif; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 14px;">–A long, narrow, and transient corridor of strong horizontal water vapor transport that is typically associated with a low-level jet stream ahead of the cold front of an extratropical cyclone. The water vapor in atmospheric rivers is supplied by tropical and/or extratropical moisture sources. Atmospheric rivers frequently lead to heavy precipitation where they are forced upward—for example, by mountains or by ascent in the warm conveyor belt. Horizontal water vapor transport in the midlatitudes occurs primarily in atmospheric rivers and is focused in the lower troposphere. Atmospheric rivers are the largest “rivers” of fresh water on Earth, transporting on average more than double the flow of the Amazon River.</span><br />
<br />
There is no mention that atmospheric rivers are confined to some arbitrary geographical location. And so neither should anyone else. Call them for what they are anywhere.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>First edit:</b><br />
Marshall Shepherd pointed out to me a comprehensive study on the climatology of southeast atmospheric resource events by Debbage and co-authors published in 2017 (including Marshall). Their study provided more information on the frequency of these events impacting the coastline from Brownsville to Cape Hatteras. They report an atmospheric river affects somewhere between these end points about 45% of all days where an average of 26 events per year affect each of the approximately 100 mi sections along the midAtlantic coastline to about 18 events per year along similar sections of the Texas coastline. Their synoptic climatology of 500 mb ridge/trough positions and 850 mb flow for Gulf Coast atmospheric rivers, also shows similarities to some of the forecast events coming up the next week.<br />
<br />
<b>some readings</b><br />
<a href="https://www.livescience.com/64767-atmospheric-river-california-rain-roofalanches.html">https://www.livescience.com/64767-atmospheric-river-california-rain-roofalanches.html</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/atmospheric-rivers-get-an-intensity-scale-like-hurricanes/">https://www.wired.com/story/atmospheric-rivers-get-an-intensity-scale-like-hurricanes/</a><br />
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<br />
<table border="0" class="references" style="color: black; font-family: Roboto, serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: italic; margin-left: -7px; padding-top: 10px;"><tbody>
<tr id="bib3"><td style="font-style: normal; padding-bottom: 10px;" valign="top"><span style="background-color: white; color: #3e3d40; font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(28, 29, 30); color: #1c1d1e;">Debbage, N. , Miller, P. , Poore, S. , Morano, K. , Mote, T. and Marshall Shepherd, J. (2017), A climatology of atmospheric river interactions with the southeastern United States coastline. Int. J. Climatol, 37: 4077-4091. doi:</span><a href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1002/joc.5000" style="-webkit-text-decoration-skip: objects; background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0055a5; text-decoration: none;">10.1002/joc.5000</a></span><br />
<span class="NLM_string-name" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span class="NLM_string-name">Dettinger, <span class="NLM_given-names">M.</span></span>, <span class="NLM_string-name"><span class="NLM_given-names">F. M.</span> Ralph</span>, and <span class="NLM_string-name"><span class="NLM_given-names">D.</span> Lavers</span>, <span class="NLM_year">2015</span>: <span class="NLM_article-title">Setting the stage for a global science of atmospheric rivers</span>. <span style="font-style: italic !important;">Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union</span>, <b style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1;">96</b>, <a class="ext-link" href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1029/2015EO038675" style="color: maroon; margin-left: 5px; word-break: break-all;" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1029/2015EO038675</a>. </span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #3e3d40;">Dirmeyer, P. A., and Kinter, J. L. (2009). The maya express—late spring floods in the U.S. </span><i style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3e3d40; outline: 0px;">Midwest. Eos. Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #3e3d40;"> 90, 101–102. doi: 10.1029/2009EO120001</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">Gimeno, </span><span class="NLM_given-names" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">L.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><span class="NLM_given-names" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">R.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;"> Nieto, </span><span class="NLM_given-names" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">M.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;"> Vázquez, and </span><span class="NLM_given-names" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">D. A.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;"> Lavers, </span><span class="NLM_year" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">2014</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">: </span><span class="NLM_article-title" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">Atmospheric rivers: A mini-review</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">. </span><span class="citation_source-journal" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1;">Front. Earth Sci.</span></span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><b style="color: #444444; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1; text-indent: 14px;">2</b><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, doi:</span><a class="ext-link" href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.3389%2Ffeart.2014.00002" style="color: maroon; padding: 0px; text-indent: 14px;" target="_blank" title="External link, opens new window">https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2014.00002</a><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;"><br /></span> <span class="NLM_string-name" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">Lavers, <span class="NLM_given-names" style="display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px;">D. A.</span></span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, and </span><span class="NLM_string-name" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;"><span class="NLM_given-names" style="display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px;">G.</span> Villarini</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><span class="NLM_year" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">2013</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">: </span><span class="NLM_article-title" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">Atmospheric rivers and flooding over the central United States</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1; text-indent: 14px;">J. Climate</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><b style="color: #444444; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1; text-indent: 14px;">26</b><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><span class="NLM_fpage" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">7829</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">–</span><span class="NLM_lpage" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">7836</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><a class="ext-link" href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00212.1" style="color: maroon; padding: 0px; text-indent: 14px;" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00212.1</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span> <span class="NLM_string-name" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">Mahoney, <span class="NLM_given-names" style="display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px;">K. M.</span></span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, and Coauthors, </span><span class="NLM_year" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">2016</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">: </span><span class="NLM_article-title" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">Understanding the role of atmospheric rivers in heavy precipitation in the southeast United States</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1; text-indent: 14px;">Mon. Wea. Rev.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><b style="color: #444444; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1; text-indent: 14px;">144</b><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><span class="NLM_fpage" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">1617</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">–</span><span class="NLM_lpage" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">1632</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><a class="ext-link" href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0279.1" style="color: maroon; padding: 0px; text-indent: 14px;" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0279.1</a><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;"><br /></span> <span class="art_authors" style="font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Miller, D.K., D. Hotz, J. Winton, and L. Stewart</span><span style="background-color: white;">, </span><span class="year" style="font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">2018</span><span style="background-color: white;">: </span><span class="art_title" style="font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><a href="https://journals-ametsoc-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0060.1" style="color: maroon;">Investigation of Atmospheric Rivers Impacting the Pigeon River Basin of the Southern Appalachian Mountains.</a></span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span><span style="font-style: italic;">Wea. Forecasting,</span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span><b style="font-family: FontAwesome, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">33</b><span style="background-color: white;">, </span><span class="page" style="font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">283–299, </span><span style="background-color: white;"></span><span class="doi" style="font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><a href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0060.1" style="color: maroon;">https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0060.1</a></span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span> <span class="NLM_string-name" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">Moore, <span class="NLM_given-names" style="display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px;">B. J.</span></span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><span class="NLM_string-name" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;"><span class="NLM_given-names" style="display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px;">P. J.</span> Neiman</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><span class="NLM_string-name" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;"><span class="NLM_given-names" style="display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px;">F. M.</span> Ralph</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, and </span><span class="NLM_string-name" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;"><span class="NLM_given-names" style="display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px;">F. E.</span> Barthold</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><span class="NLM_year" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">2012</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">: </span><span class="NLM_article-title" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">Physical processes associated with heavy flooding rainfall in Nashville, Tennessee, and vicinity during 1–2 May 2010: The role of an atmospheric river and mesoscale convective systems</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1; text-indent: 14px;">Mon. Wea. Rev.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><b style="color: #444444; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1; text-indent: 14px;">140</b><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><span class="NLM_fpage" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">358</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">–</span><span class="NLM_lpage" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">378</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><a class="ext-link" href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00126.1" style="color: maroon; padding: 0px; text-indent: 14px;" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00126.1</a><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">Moore, </span><span class="NLM_given-names" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">B. J.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><span class="NLM_given-names" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">K. M.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;"> Mahoney, </span><span class="NLM_given-names" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">E. M.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;"> Sukovich, </span><span class="NLM_given-names" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">R.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;"> Cifelli, and </span><span class="NLM_given-names" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">T. M.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;"> Hamill, </span><span class="NLM_year" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">2015</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">: </span><span class="NLM_article-title" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">Climatology and environmental characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the southeastern United States</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">. </span><span class="citation_source-journal" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;"><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1;">Mon. Wea. Rev.</span></span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><b style="color: #444444; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1; text-indent: 14px;">143</b><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, </span><span class="NLM_fpage" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">718</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">–</span><span class="NLM_lpage" style="color: #444444; display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px;">741</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;">, doi:</span><a class="ext-link" href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1175%2FMWR-D-14-00065.1" style="color: maroon; padding: 0px; text-indent: 14px;" target="_blank" title="External link, opens new window">https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00065.1</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; text-indent: 14px;"><br /></span> <span class="art_authors" style="font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Ralph, F.M., M.D. Dettinger, M.M. Cairns, T.J. Galarneau, and J. Eylander</span><span style="background-color: white;">, </span><span class="year" style="font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">2018</span><span style="background-color: white;">: </span><span class="art_title" style="font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><a href="https://journals-ametsoc-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0157.1" style="color: maroon;">Defining “Atmospheric River”: How the <italic toggle="yes">Glossary of Meteorology</italic> Helped Resolve a Debate.</a></span><span style="background-color: white;"></span><span style="font-style: italic;">Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,</span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span><b style="font-family: FontAwesome, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">99</b><span style="background-color: white;">, </span><span class="page" style="font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">837–839, </span><span style="background-color: white;"></span><span class="doi" style="font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><a href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0157.1" style="color: maroon;">https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0157.1</a></span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #3e3d40;">Waliser, D. E., Moncrieff, M. W., Burridge, D., Fink, A. H., Gochis, D., Goswami, B. N., et al. (2012). The year of tropical convection (May 2008–April 2010): climate variability and weather highlights. </span><i style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3e3d40; outline: 0px;">Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #3e3d40;">. 93, 1189–1218. doi: 10.1175/2011BAMS3095.1</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #3e3d40;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #3e3d40;"><span class="art_authors" style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Zhu, Y. and R.E. Newell</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">, </span><span class="year" style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">1998</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">: </span><span class="art_title" style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493%281998%29126%3C0725%3AAPAFMF%3E2.0.CO%3B2" style="color: maroon;">A Proposed Algorithm for Moisture Fluxes from Atmospheric Rivers.</a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-style: italic;"><span class="journalName">Mon. Wea. Rev.,</span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"> </span><b style="color: black;"><span class="volume">126</span></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">, </span><span class="page" style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">725–735, </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"></span><span class="doi" style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126%3C0725:APAFMF%3E2.0.CO;2" style="color: maroon;">https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0725:APAFMF>2.0.CO;2</a></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "fontawesome" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span> https://eos.org/meeting-reports/setting-the-stage-for-a-global-science-of-atmospheric-rivers</span>Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-26939668276685935922019-02-16T13:40:00.000-08:002019-02-16T13:46:30.523-08:00Did we realize that we appreciate government work?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I worked on this blog entry in the later days of the government shutdown after hearing stories that federal employees were becoming demoralized from their perceptions that they weren't valued. Well, I went back to work, got paid, and quickly became consumed by all the catchup I had to do from the shutdown. So my I almost, but didn't quite, finished the blog. Now I did and thus posted now. Perhaps it's not quite in step with the news cycle since we averted a following shutdown. But I think this is an important takeaway from the shutdown. We are appreciated.<br />
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I recently saw a post from a friend of mine during the shutdown that he heard of NASA scientists being recruited away to Silicon Valley companies and not looking back. I'm not sure when this happened but I could imagine that during the shutdown a lot of government researchers were thinking of doing the same. After all, why would anyone want to hang out without pay doing research in the government when they could be making multiple times that amount working for some hot company?<br />
I'm pretty sure that Ronald Reagan quipped something to that effect in this quote <span style="background-color: white; color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif; font-size: 14px;">“<i>The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would steal them away</i>.” </span><br />
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<span style="color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(24, 24, 24); font-size: 14px;">President Reagan may have said many valid quotes in his tenure, but I'm going to say that this one is not true. I've been around long enough to know amazingly smart people that remain in government. Why? Because money isn't the number one motivating factor that governs their happiness. There are other motivating factors. In the world of meteorology where I ply my trade, most of my colleagues, many as smart as anybody in the private sector, do research and forecast the weather in NOAA. Most of them haven't run away or have been snatched by the private sector. They'd prefer to advance the science and make the best forecasts they can because they believe in protecting life and property and advancing related missions in NOAA. None of them mentioned they want to make more money, only enough so that they can focus on their mission and not worry about their quality of life. I believe this to be true of many sectors of government, however, I would have to say that for my career, working in NOAA ranked as high as any government agency in satisfaction.</span></span><br />
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We've had our shutdowns in the past, big ones happened when Newt Gingrich led Congress into a budget battle with President Clinton for 21 days back in 1995-1996. Or how about when Senator Cruz did the same with President Obama for 13 days? None of them resulted in entirely missing a paycheck. And when it did happen this time, I've heard many stories about demoralization around the news media. The most demoralized seem to come from those working for the least pay, like in the TSA or the IRS. I can certainly emphasize with them considering that they were running out of funds to pay for basic life necessities. It's hard to think about your job when you're not getting paid and you're running out of money. Even better-paid employees were wondering about whether it was worth staying in the government, even without the shutdown.<br />
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You see, it's because the shutdown brought to light the years of vitriol that we've heard since 1980. Another Ronald Reagan quote came to mind that goes like this: <span style="background-color: white; color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif; font-size: 14px;">“Government is not a solution to our problem government is the problem.” Now he might've been focusing on larger aspects of government and not the individual employee or his/her worth to society. But the negative impressions of government employees from certain sectors of the US seemed to grow from there. Think about quotes like 'We're from Washington and we're here to help', or that government employees are overpaid and lazy. This kind of attitude strikes hard at the very core of why we work in the government. We work in the civil service because we're service-oriented. Our mission is to serve American people or push the frontiers of knowledge. Our sense of importance is not dependent on how much cash we can earn but by making a difference to someone's lives for whom we serve. It's that simple. So imagine how these quotes above can attack at our sense of service? For this reason, the shutdown that lasted this long could have had a strongly demoralizing influence on civil servants, no matter if we got paid or not. There is plenty to show that scientists in federal labs are being <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/24/us/civil-servants-government-work.html?fbclid=IwAR1-i73dXLbHtYUoJ099Nh5hjRTdQDYGxkvjMEEm2dIirI4UYsXmNkPtV9M" target="_blank">pushed out </a>because they feel unappreciated, or worse, perceived to be an annoyance by half of the American public. This is especially true when certain pundits proclaimed that a shutdown only inconveniences a few tourists because a national park gift shop is closed. I'll let you know if who if you want.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span> <span style="color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(24, 24, 24); font-size: 14px;">But this shutdown showed another thing that I think never came to light as strongly previously – an awakening about how much civil servants are appreciated. If there's one good thing about this shutdown, it's a reminder of what this society would be like without us. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(24, 24, 24); font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></span> <span style="color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(24, 24, 24); font-size: 14px;">First off, there were the news media reports that alarmed everyone about the negative impacts on the country that multiplied every day there was this partial government shutdown. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif; font-size: 14px;">One story after another warned about the immediate impacts, like <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/425326-airline-industry-fears-bite-from-shutdown" target="_blank">commercial air travel</a>, and <a href="https://nbaa.org/aircraft-operations/the-government-shutdown-and-business-aviation/impact-of-the-government-shutdown-on-general-aviation/" target="_blank">general aviation</a>. Perhaps the biggest story on the aviation side was what would happen if large numbers of <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/425326-airline-industry-fears-bite-from-shutdown" target="_blank">TSA agents and air traffic controllers failed to show up for work</a>? The answer would surely be a crippled travel infrastructure. The reported ground stop at LaGuardia and travel delays in Philadelphia and Newark airports surely seem to go along with the higher than normal absences of air traffic controllers. But that's just scratching the surface. There were numerous stories about IRS workers taking emergency leave and the threat to the US from a<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-law-enforcement-officers-association-writes-letter-to-trump-shutdown-has-become-extremely-dangerous/" target="_blank"> hobbled FBI</a>.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span> <span style="background-color: white; color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif; font-size: 14px;">In my world as a National Weather Service employee, there were plenty of stories about the negative impacts of the shutdown on the NWS. Already, reported by WRAL, some broken down river gauges<a href="https://www.wral.com/weather-service-employees-forecast-difficult-times-ahead-if-government-shutdown-doesn-t-end/18139361/?fbclid=IwAR1Zr7R6Fe9z9Ctj_Xyqtv2GEMyp9MGfgg18mwSRlKPPEoI7i535-D7Q6Ns" target="_blank"> were not repaired</a> because of the shutdown in North Carolina. Not just equipment but new stories described the sinking morale of forecasters such as by <a href="https://ktvq.com/news/local-news/2019/01/24/amid-snow-storms-forecasting-in-billings-takes-hit-during-government-shutdown/?fbclid=IwAR03PjS1RQ1RKznEfv4893108ROfLVcsH5hP0583YQt73AkhO873SFHyUIA" target="_blank">KTVQ in Billings, MT</a>. Fortunately, the dedication of NWS forecasters working without pay meant that the US was spared the much starker consequences of a shutdown with no weather services. However Longer term impacts were starting to build up because training and forecast improvement work was stopped, and federal employees were furloughed. NPR documented what hurricane preparedness planning was <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/685414053/government-shutdown-stalls-preparedness-for-upcoming-hurricane-season?fbclid=IwAR1ITSkVBbe5a3lsi-2iy0TBtBsUHND8f30rBvzdFJw-NH3mfhtQW5bqR5g" target="_blank">lost</a> for an entire year. It doesn't end there because the NWS lost over a month of training new and experienced employees in all aspects of doing their jobs, and developing new improvements to forecasting such as the new global model called the FV3, and an improved forecast guidance system called the National Blend of Models. These impacts were not lost to the media (from KTVQ to <a href="http://time.com/5492377/weather-forecasts-goverment-shutdown/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-share-article&utm_content=20190103&fbclid=IwAR10hwn-M_9yd71LrqR31kO8OwECdBsARxVxwccwTvKkeCkUUwTEJJY9W4s" target="_blank">TIME</a>). Step out a bit to a more broad scale, and one can see how much impact there was. Take the comments from Marshall Shepherd (Head of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at University of Georgia) about how the shutdown affected his student's ability to do their research using NOAA and NASA data. These impacts may not seem as dire as shutting down airports but multiply these by thousands and they become much larger.</span><br />
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<i>"1. Several NOAA websites with data that I use in lectures/student assignments are down. I had to completely restructure assignments this week<span class="text_exposed_show" style="display: inline; font-family: inherit;">.</span></i></div>
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<i>2. One of my doctoral students has a NASA civil servant on his PhD committee. We are trying to schedule his proposal defense this Spring, but the NASA person is furloughed and will likely be backed up when it is over. </i></div>
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<i>3. Several students in our Department planning to graduate in May are unable to complete senior projects, theses, or dissertations because they cannot access data needed from NOAA or other shuttered websites.</i></div>
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<i>4. I have pending grant proposals to NASA and NSF. If funded, they bring $$ to UGA as overhead/indirect. Additionally, it allows me to offer research assistantships to new graduate students. The longer I wait for a decision from the Agency, the more likely UGA is going to lose this talent to some other University.</i></div>
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<i>5. Our Atmospheric Sciences students were not able to meet with federal scientists at our biggest discipline conference in Phoenix because NASA, NOAA, and NSF colleagues couldn't go. This limits Georgia students' access to potential jobs, internships, fellowships, and so forth."</i></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span> <span style="color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(24, 24, 24); font-size: 14px;">So these are the negative impacts and perhaps they give us federal employees that our work is vital and potentially damaging if missed. Perhaps there's a more important reason to consider when our importance is in doubt. It's the realization that our work was appreciated. Our stakeholders and the public empathized with our travails, and the kindness of our stakeholders displayed support of our livelihoods. Again, this appreciation was widespread. I take examples from my most familiar corner of civil service – the NWS. Numerous stories remarked on the fact that the NWS stayed open and its users, gratified. Look in particular on the story from Montgomeryadvertiser about the accurate tornado warnings provided by NWS Birmingham forecasters literally saved lives. The <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/01/12/national-weather-service-forecasts-winter-snow-storm-government-shutdown/2558998002/?fbclid=IwAR10g9ZzjAQ44onGy_TnUIUdsl5TOv6ymT_kSi9xkCSh3bRXGYCqoTbmkIg" target="_blank">USAToday </a> highlighted how forecasters stayed on the job to forecast blizzards across the northern US. FOX40 reported on residents in Sacramento talking of their appreciation that the NWS Sacramento office was open and <a href="https://fox40.com/2019/01/07/nws-meteorologists-still-monitoring-storms-around-the-clock-despite-government-shutdown/" target="_blank">providing information</a> on a storm that knocked power out to thousands. The good stories appeared daily in the media, ranging from local to national news (like CBSnews). Amidst all of this, I've been heartened to see too many examples to count of local government agencies and broadcasters bringing lunches to their local NWS offices in appreciation of their work and with a bit of solidarity. I pasted only the tip of the iceberg below as examples of generosity expressed throughout the NWS. Heck, even our sister agency, Environment Canada, provided meals across borders to offices in Montana, Alaska, and elsewhere. Our work was appreciated, and this is just my narrow view from the NWS.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(24, 24, 24); font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></span> <span style="color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(24, 24, 24); font-size: 14px;">Overall, the partial shutdown of the federal government demonstrated that we were wanted, appreciated, and its partners and people across the US expressed dismay at how we were treated. Not only that but the evidence also appears in surveys, such as that conducted by Pew Research, that <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/26/few-americans-support-cuts-to-most-government-programs-including-medicaid/" target="_blank">federal programs are valued by the public and partners</a>. I note that both republicans and democrats favor keeping federal spending at least the same levels for every one of the topic areas except providing foreign assistance. Close to the backyard where I work, I find it heartening that 94% of Democrats and 80% of Republicans do not want a decrease in scientific research. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(24, 24, 24); font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #181818; font-family: "merriweather" , "georgia" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(24, 24, 24); font-size: 14px;">So, while optics sometimes appears to show that the American public don't favor federal employees, the evidence shows otherwise. That's the evidence. I also share just a small sample of pictures and stories posted on social media by my colleagues from around the country. This should give you a sense of NWS partners giving their thanks. I'm sure this is repeated throughout the various agencies of the federal government.</span></span><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">NWS employees keep providing service amidst hardship</span></b><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSiCvKGNxAFToMyWH9asVNOCg7-X8bp99rjVcS8YX6Be_E7NWHlzC42DAArkRLH6V5Ai6soRttCz6MlelKQUAs8M4B2agITgFuN-xVjLVXDzstvcS5g4T_jhIb-GXsOMNgHKO9JNm3U98/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.27.15+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="338" data-original-width="507" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSiCvKGNxAFToMyWH9asVNOCg7-X8bp99rjVcS8YX6Be_E7NWHlzC42DAArkRLH6V5Ai6soRttCz6MlelKQUAs8M4B2agITgFuN-xVjLVXDzstvcS5g4T_jhIb-GXsOMNgHKO9JNm3U98/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.27.15+PM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">John De Block posted this<a href="https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/2019/01/21/wetumpka-al-tornado-national-weather-service-missing-pay-during-shutdown/2631678002/?fbclid=IwAR2XPDAONRiO01qe0xXoq0gZ2ieR4oNwdO-NV0ZYSfKCTv10ZbU39nVuie4" target="_blank"> article</a> from the Montgomery Advertiser. . </td></tr>
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<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/01/12/national-weather-service-forecasts-winter-snow-storm-government-shutdown/2558998002/?fbclid=IwAR10g9ZzjAQ44onGy_TnUIUdsl5TOv6ymT_kSi9xkCSh3bRXGYCqoTbmkIg">https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/01/12/national-weather-service-forecasts-winter-snow-storm-government-shutdown/2558998002/?fbclid=IwAR10g9ZzjAQ44onGy_TnUIUdsl5TOv6ymT_kSi9xkCSh3bRXGYCqoTbmkIg</a><br />
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<a href="https://fox40.com/2019/01/07/nws-meteorologists-still-monitoring-storms-around-the-clock-despite-government-shutdown/">https://fox40.com/2019/01/07/nws-meteorologists-still-monitoring-storms-around-the-clock-despite-government-shutdown/</a><br />
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<b>Appreciation of government work</b><br />
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<a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/26/few-americans-support-cuts-to-most-government-programs-including-medicaid/">http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/26/few-americans-support-cuts-to-most-government-programs-including-medicaid/</a><br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf5Abs9hnVXvOEhjKfCWTXdroZ6Dqx8HmGxH253BjaTgOqxiJ2V-q724ld72gJPnjc339Ai4PECYrTVJlKH4KJe4eB7li4oD6mgza6OKk7loRu9GBWD71rc9PMMn1DXG8Qi4wETGWj2is/s1600/Gifts-2-NWSFFC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="960" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf5Abs9hnVXvOEhjKfCWTXdroZ6Dqx8HmGxH253BjaTgOqxiJ2V-q724ld72gJPnjc339Ai4PECYrTVJlKH4KJe4eB7li4oD6mgza6OKk7loRu9GBWD71rc9PMMn1DXG8Qi4wETGWj2is/s200/Gifts-2-NWSFFC.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Food was delivered to the NWS at PeachTree City, GA</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWKtC899o_IqwpqRCT3YLUqza6k1CUsCuw4e8n5lpn7Znas8Vjb01p21wfWnATKY4F1zsglGVySeXEf4I5D0FBtbztohV8Ar0z1MTr9QxNjSflifMp36SeN0RJgxM5Oe57j6WEJ3cJ10k/s1600/IMG_7854.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="431" data-original-width="576" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWKtC899o_IqwpqRCT3YLUqza6k1CUsCuw4e8n5lpn7Znas8Vjb01p21wfWnATKY4F1zsglGVySeXEf4I5D0FBtbztohV8Ar0z1MTr9QxNjSflifMp36SeN0RJgxM5Oe57j6WEJ3cJ10k/s200/IMG_7854.JPG" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Here at my place of employment at the National Weather Center, there was enough generosity to nearly break a table in half.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyoILObeOZnKh2Nm96LMXiTvPLFTbgEJtuFLzA8UxKvfcPFUEiGjPC9n_Q2gGDKKBlfWXRmv0QFIQhbg3A7LZTgYs4NCkOhCf6H19-S-GxRYerpxLkBJhuoYZnKAmu2_kI6VZaF0Q1gXc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+4.24.19+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="504" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyoILObeOZnKh2Nm96LMXiTvPLFTbgEJtuFLzA8UxKvfcPFUEiGjPC9n_Q2gGDKKBlfWXRmv0QFIQhbg3A7LZTgYs4NCkOhCf6H19-S-GxRYerpxLkBJhuoYZnKAmu2_kI6VZaF0Q1gXc/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+4.24.19+PM.png" width="192" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Webster Parish Police Jury delivered BBQ to the NWS Shreveport office.</td></tr>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqMrX7QiRKXnjoBOtyfPioaZcaK8pWl7LNfJ55FLSU3vGCEHaGmX_UjuvTpO3AGFxDio_Q4Er_-1yQ27O1nOKODM8wAvAFZXk23ZkzdrvZrACHrnZ6WP_RBmxkA3H9QfRoAxXLgAI5tQw/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.00.02+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="458" data-original-width="505" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqMrX7QiRKXnjoBOtyfPioaZcaK8pWl7LNfJ55FLSU3vGCEHaGmX_UjuvTpO3AGFxDio_Q4Er_-1yQ27O1nOKODM8wAvAFZXk23ZkzdrvZrACHrnZ6WP_RBmxkA3H9QfRoAxXLgAI5tQw/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.00.02+PM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">I think this caption says it all. Others show their support when they understand someone else is in need of a hand.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRKGfi3zZnkopNKH4eg4KyEHFwDY49kN-3ab6KHTjF7apd8vvMd0O3MrJNhyphenhyphengbw0mzaO9sm-HKGljbHtYfLhWHnar5ltVXy5hiDtooNaaypP9BRxSEST0ubXjMiFvFb9aolGTQb1Q3Sus/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.12.46+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="495" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRKGfi3zZnkopNKH4eg4KyEHFwDY49kN-3ab6KHTjF7apd8vvMd0O3MrJNhyphenhyphengbw0mzaO9sm-HKGljbHtYfLhWHnar5ltVXy5hiDtooNaaypP9BRxSEST0ubXjMiFvFb9aolGTQb1Q3Sus/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.12.46+PM.png" width="258" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The city of Roanoke, VA posted a list of services willing to help furloughed federal workers.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhtB3O-ruukEo-gKoDSnYBeMC_Dv2E1xs2TkQvqAvhuPHTahdk_ltlgNA7xKXc0rA8O3xZEa6VWyS1CjoRNHcuAr7q-HciA4UPynPjlMVYVFNae-6hfB2sN3Kj4EkBBKPAkqxD9xcODFA/s1600/Indianapolis-supports-feds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="396" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhtB3O-ruukEo-gKoDSnYBeMC_Dv2E1xs2TkQvqAvhuPHTahdk_ltlgNA7xKXc0rA8O3xZEa6VWyS1CjoRNHcuAr7q-HciA4UPynPjlMVYVFNae-6hfB2sN3Kj4EkBBKPAkqxD9xcODFA/s320/Indianapolis-supports-feds.jpg" width="207" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The city of Indianapolis provides a community resource expo for furloughed and excepted feds.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7D0KBmcS43EZPf1r7lkk3myVibHy6gkCf6MX_p6TvxCr1UfTyHkv9lqGmaoV-k7jaqFKmLprf_8E1N9sDpfRztccF7qbNmMtM8Quq9LCKj4TdPggN3k9KjrqlLTmPWQttGi2GABHYy4s/s1600/Coconino-county-feeds-NWS-FGZ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="562" data-original-width="750" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7D0KBmcS43EZPf1r7lkk3myVibHy6gkCf6MX_p6TvxCr1UfTyHkv9lqGmaoV-k7jaqFKmLprf_8E1N9sDpfRztccF7qbNmMtM8Quq9LCKj4TdPggN3k9KjrqlLTmPWQttGi2GABHYy4s/s320/Coconino-county-feeds-NWS-FGZ.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Coconino County Roads Public Works team shared lunch with the NWS Flagstaff office.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHi9cXPyCNzfAdY9H4aVWVBIwT3BzRrOV0dgqfEPnAkaCjVXWKR9tGr2btYthISzcjbI2ZUIIvUTCWa80SYRNcQxmlQhsa_7GQc3-LH8LoAd4e1Ou7Yh7x6OzzX80NGo742Ay-w9zu-b4/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.19.09+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="467" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHi9cXPyCNzfAdY9H4aVWVBIwT3BzRrOV0dgqfEPnAkaCjVXWKR9tGr2btYthISzcjbI2ZUIIvUTCWa80SYRNcQxmlQhsa_7GQc3-LH8LoAd4e1Ou7Yh7x6OzzX80NGo742Ay-w9zu-b4/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.19.09+PM.png" width="286" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Mad River Glen ski resort offers free skiing to federal employees during the shutdown.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfQ91bGYGRZUYnZtcXlBvlYxMUV1ogPAsHYaXbDqC3BHK9Xchg236t1PX-7R1uiDSTykyLgc50WlDpgU0UWx7X53gYGwpQi7ODy6nFJnapB_Fa78J6fcnN9Etzrskf0_FKXZBECeFqQn4/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.21.33+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="505" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfQ91bGYGRZUYnZtcXlBvlYxMUV1ogPAsHYaXbDqC3BHK9Xchg236t1PX-7R1uiDSTykyLgc50WlDpgU0UWx7X53gYGwpQi7ODy6nFJnapB_Fa78J6fcnN9Etzrskf0_FKXZBECeFqQn4/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.21.33+PM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Dave Snider sent this post of the lunch at the Alaska Aviation Weather Unity, Volcano Advisory Center, Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center, and the Anchorage Weather Forecast Office made possible by Environment Canada Edmonton.<br />
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<tr><td><br /></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjgbxj_rRtXAU2EEJVYZDEHYSXgTxO5PpyBnxK7RhhGp7GqxXb3gi856QsLo1lP2ADysVf8xuoBg950Q_5BO2VTQqUkudFtgT4fCIipSDGhQs0R3Mpdc1Z3woTeSEWsShRcojlFSpKg-s/s1600/Free+Pizza+at+NWS+Hastings.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjgbxj_rRtXAU2EEJVYZDEHYSXgTxO5PpyBnxK7RhhGp7GqxXb3gi856QsLo1lP2ADysVf8xuoBg950Q_5BO2VTQqUkudFtgT4fCIipSDGhQs0R3Mpdc1Z3woTeSEWsShRcojlFSpKg-s/s320/Free+Pizza+at+NWS+Hastings.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Kate Shawkey posted this free lunch at the NWS Hastings office.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5deCsaSmFN4wyzZ00wXF9UGkO6DJRkBXpJxPPdqVhydhqPPpJDtG89-7n1vP5Ea0uBmeX53CD_bS_oKud3Ywrr3Owm_lF7abYPmtHify37flmeDOzIqPjpy8x6Ps_cHw9In7PjyNelvg/s1600/Thank+you+wall+at+NWS+OUN.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5deCsaSmFN4wyzZ00wXF9UGkO6DJRkBXpJxPPdqVhydhqPPpJDtG89-7n1vP5Ea0uBmeX53CD_bS_oKud3Ywrr3Owm_lF7abYPmtHify37flmeDOzIqPjpy8x6Ps_cHw9In7PjyNelvg/s320/Thank+you+wall+at+NWS+OUN.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Rick Smith posted a picture of their wall of appreciation at NWS Norman, OK.</td></tr>
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<br />
<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/01/10/government-shutdown-freebies-deals-and-help-furloughed-workers/2523404002/?fbclid=IwAR0x5sKYlOo-NkE5Y1qeDcO387QMB8_ew-MZMNdrbeNLCgxftnEAWui8fjg">https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/01/10/government-shutdown-freebies-deals-and-help-furloughed-workers/2523404002/?fbclid=IwAR0x5sKYlOo-NkE5Y1qeDcO387QMB8_ew-MZMNdrbeNLCgxftnEAWui8fjg</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Realizing that government support is important</span></b><br />
LA times: Shutdown showed America's dependence on the federal government (<a href="https://apple.news/AVwPsHlQBTTiJvGkTlCu1Dg">Read the full story</a>)<br />
<br />
<b>Air travel</b><br />
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/">https://www.washingtonpost.com</a><br />
<a href="https://nbaa.org/aircraft-operations/the-government-shutdown-and-business-aviation/impact-of-the-government-shutdown-on-general-aviation/">https://nbaa.org/aircraft-operations/the-government-shutdown-and-business-aviation/impact-of-the-government-shutdown-on-general-aviation/</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/boeing-warns-shutdown-could-hurt-business-and-aviation-industry.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/boeing-warns-shutdown-could-hurt-business-and-aviation-industry.html</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/425326-airline-industry-fears-bite-from-shutdown">https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/425326-airline-industry-fears-bite-from-shutdown</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blue-flu-tsa-agents-skip-cannot-afford-work-free-212415393.html">https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blue-flu-tsa-agents-skip-cannot-afford-work-free-212415393.html</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Weather Readiness</b><br />
<a href="http://time.com/5492377/weather-forecasts-goverment-shutdown/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-share-article&utm_content=20190103&fbclid=IwAR10hwn-M_9yd71LrqR31kO8OwECdBsARxVxwccwTvKkeCkUUwTEJJY9W4s">http://time.com/5492377/weather-forecasts-goverment-shutdown/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-share-article&utm_content=20190103&fbclid=IwAR10hwn-M_9yd71LrqR31kO8OwECdBsARxVxwccwTvKkeCkUUwTEJJY9W4s</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.abcfoxmontana.com/bozeman/as-government-shutdown-continues-federal-employees-in-western-montana-face/article_074550f8-0f02-11e9-850d-1b427a0c1c4f.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=user-share&fbclid=IwAR23OJltPLHkVfu6ghnUN5COw3e6hbfn5VQ0uiigdV75VYeUS3kwR16qOpg">https://www.abcfoxmontana.com/bozeman/as-government-shutdown-continues-federal-employees-in-western-montana-face/article_074550f8-0f02-11e9-850d-1b427a0c1c4f.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=user-share&fbclid=IwAR23OJltPLHkVfu6ghnUN5COw3e6hbfn5VQ0uiigdV75VYeUS3kwR16qOpg</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live/video/20190123023148-with-much-of-the-country-experiencing-extreme-winter-weather-a-look-at-how-the-national-weather-service-is-handling-the-ongoing-shutdow/?fbclid=IwAR1g2i3j4FgjE-conGyUOd5xLV8YKTUs3AvItdq_ccgoroLzxXcoMuEk6Uk">https://www.cbsnews.com/live/video/20190123023148-with-much-of-the-country-experiencing-extreme-winter-weather-a-look-at-how-the-national-weather-service-is-handling-the-ongoing-shutdow/?fbclid=IwAR1g2i3j4FgjE-conGyUOd5xLV8YKTUs3AvItdq_ccgoroLzxXcoMuEk6Uk</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.wral.com/weather-service-employees-forecast-difficult-times-ahead-if-government-shutdown-doesn-t-end/18139361/?fbclid=IwAR1Zr7R6Fe9z9Ctj_Xyqtv2GEMyp9MGfgg18mwSRlKPPEoI7i535-D7Q6Ns">https://www.wral.com/weather-service-employees-forecast-difficult-times-ahead-if-government-shutdown-doesn-t-end/18139361/?fbclid=IwAR1Zr7R6Fe9z9Ctj_Xyqtv2GEMyp9MGfgg18mwSRlKPPEoI7i535-D7Q6Ns</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://ktvq.com/news/local-news/2019/01/24/amid-snow-storms-forecasting-in-billings-takes-hit-during-government-shutdown/?fbclid=IwAR03PjS1RQ1RKznEfv4893108ROfLVcsH5hP0583YQt73AkhO873SFHyUIA">https://ktvq.com/news/local-news/2019/01/24/amid-snow-storms-forecasting-in-billings-takes-hit-during-government-shutdown/?fbclid=IwAR03PjS1RQ1RKznEfv4893108ROfLVcsH5hP0583YQt73AkhO873SFHyUIA</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/685414053/government-shutdown-stalls-preparedness-for-upcoming-hurricane-season?fbclid=IwAR1ITSkVBbe5a3lsi-2iy0TBtBsUHND8f30rBvzdFJw-NH3mfhtQW5bqR5g">https://www.npr.org/2019/01/15/685414053/government-shutdown-stalls-preparedness-for-upcoming-hurricane-season?fbclid=IwAR1ITSkVBbe5a3lsi-2iy0TBtBsUHND8f30rBvzdFJw-NH3mfhtQW5bqR5g</a><br />
<br />
<b>Law Enforcement</b><br />
<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-law-enforcement-officers-association-writes-letter-to-trump-shutdown-has-become-extremely-dangerous/">https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-law-enforcement-officers-association-writes-letter-to-trump-shutdown-has-become-extremely-dangerous/</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Support</span></b><br />
<b><br /></b> <b>Lending Institutions</b><br />
<a href="https://global.americanexpress.com/contact-us" target="_blank">AMEX</a>, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://avadiancu.com/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515093000&sa=D&ust=1548545515185000&usg=AFQjCNHyZ2ryECxqnrrX-CLh--WMVZg9xA" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(17, 85, 204); color: inherit; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666984558105px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: inherit; widows: 2;">Avadian Credit Union</a>, <span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 10.5pt; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://message.bankofamerica.com/shutdown/?cm_sp%253DEBZ-BAC-Announcement-_-BACAnnouncement-_-AMT2SX3F01_SuperHighlights_Shutdown_Dec18_ctaGovtShutdown%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515094000&sa=D&ust=1548545515186000&usg=AFQjCNGG1Xg6POkHhYyOhs3oIvaVpuPe2g" style="color: inherit; text-decoration: inherit;">Bank of America</a><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">, </span></span></span><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.becu.org/support/member-assistance-program.%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515094000&sa=D&ust=1548545515187000&usg=AFQjCNFyGoe0ED8vK53ztf_XtAIWy46OLA" style="caret-color: rgb(17, 85, 204); color: inherit; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666984558105px; orphans: 2; text-decoration: inherit; widows: 2;">Boeing Employees Credit Union</a>, <span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.666666984558105px; text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.capitalone.com/contact/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515095000&sa=D&ust=1548545515189000&usg=AFQjCNGCt4_aHV_dHRhF8f3EiXEa2pKYaA" style="color: inherit; text-decoration: inherit;">Capital One</a>,</span><br />
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<span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial";"><span style="caret-color: rgb(17, 85, 204); font-size: 14.666666984558105px;"><u><a href="https://media.chase.com/news/chase-assists-during-government-shutdown" target="_blank">Chas</a>e</u>, </span></span><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.666666984558105px;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://online.citi.com/JRS/pands/detail.do?ID%253DUSGovShutdown%2526JFP_TOKEN%253D8KE7R80P%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515097000&sa=D&ust=1548545515191000&usg=AFQjCNHyJaJEKqDYesoURgrUbfmtWxv4gg" style="color: inherit; text-decoration: inherit;">Citibank</a>, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #555555; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.666666984558105px; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.congressionalfcu.org/loans/personal-loans/furlough-solutions%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515097000&sa=D&ust=1548545515191000&usg=AFQjCNEkaJA8LOXHQFhxwL_8kPZuY3sIfg" style="color: inherit; text-decoration: inherit;">Congressional Federal Credit Union</a></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #555555; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.666666984558105px; font-weight: 700;">:, <a href="http://blog.cu1.org/protect-your-finances" target="_blank">Credit Union 1</a>, Coast Central Credit Union, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.666666984558105px; text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.docfcu.org/emergency-loan%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515099000&sa=D&ust=1548545515191000&usg=AFQjCNFIrdp8HtQ9SSiBm8npI_0WZdk3UQ" style="color: inherit; text-decoration: inherit;">Department of Commerce Federal Credit Union</a></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline;">:, Discover Card, </span><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.666666984558105px;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.ent.com/campaigns/government-shutdown/?fbclid%253DIwAR36K1AMIw8zvl1DaSmOfedQrKxjTJBa208AYeZ4zRnNlgukYfLZyRljSN4%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515099000&sa=D&ust=1548545515192000&usg=AFQjCNE2YMY4DFRZbP4TdMLqZFEh2W0Ouw" style="color: inherit; text-decoration: inherit;">ENT Credit Union</a>, Fed <a href="http://www.fedchoice.org/my-life/furlough-center/" target="_blank">Choice Central Credit Union</a>, </span><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.firstcommand.com/cover-federal-pay/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515101000&sa=D&ust=1548545515192000&usg=AFQjCNH5b3wTctpnAaIwXyupMnJzGonACw" target="_blank">First Command Financial Services</a>, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.firstoklahomabank.com%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515103000&sa=D&ust=1548545515193000&usg=AFQjCNFQNeWXDNYeSmC1ORON4CxOcLomhA" target="_blank">First Oklahoma Bank</a>, Hebrew <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://hebrewfreeloandc.org/emergency-loans-for-federal-employees/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515105000&sa=D&ust=1548545515193000&usg=AFQjCNGDMRqRak6cYYJrNTB6AdbpwZBMiQ" target="_blank">Free Loan Association of Greater Washington</a>, <a href="https://www.iccu.com/contact-us" target="_blank">Icon Credit Union, Boise</a>, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.jfcu.org/SpecialAssistance%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515107000&sa=D&ust=1548545515194000&usg=AFQjCNExJWuKGXNBSBu1QfiRwa8UA8nrOw" target="_blank">Justice Federal Credit Union, </a>Landmark Credit Union - Wisconsin, Lending Club, Lowes, <span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.666666984558105px; text-decoration: underline;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.nasafcu.com/shutdown-assistance/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515108000&sa=D&ust=1548545515195000&usg=AFQjCNGrzzWC58gbaOxl3oOVPZpz-C2mvQ" target="_blank">NASA Federal Credit Union</a>,</span><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.666666984558105px;"> <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://navient.com/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515109000&sa=D&ust=1548545515195000&usg=AFQjCNHDP10giL5BlkaYUSgHG5roBra8OA" target="_blank">Navient</a>, </span><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.navyfederal.org/pdf/press-releases/2018/navy-federal-extends-paycheck-relief-to-those-affected-by-government-shutdown.pdf%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515109000&sa=D&ust=1548545515195000&usg=AFQjCNHsugZAkzEmruhH9NcLv3gE6VZqBw" target="_blank">Navy Federal Credit Union</a>, Paypal, <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.penfed.org/frequently-asked-questions/assistance%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1548545515110000&sa=D&ust=1548545515196000&usg=AFQjCNE6rPL6OniCTS72kqk-ZA87XdDTOw" target="_blank">Pentagon Federal Credit Union</a>, PNC Bank, Quicken Loans, San Diego Fed Credit Union, Service Credit Union, Stockman Bank - Montana, SunTrust, Synchrony Bank, USAA, US Bank, US Employees Credit Union, Washington Federal Bank, Wells Fargo</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRVRAw3T7EGPcIfDnnaFXQM7p3i6L2HFeiCe5grYGBTdtTdH1Rz19ig0z_EHLwDc4d8W5WQa34xst32PK0W8fwd1cQ_uvEb4MrBtyzUx2c-R6y1gi2xiOa-S-5uu05TLjP64C_TBbyTDY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.24.44+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="502" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRVRAw3T7EGPcIfDnnaFXQM7p3i6L2HFeiCe5grYGBTdtTdH1Rz19ig0z_EHLwDc4d8W5WQa34xst32PK0W8fwd1cQ_uvEb4MrBtyzUx2c-R6y1gi2xiOa-S-5uu05TLjP64C_TBbyTDY/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.24.44+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<b>Auto companies</b></div>
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Chrysler, Ford, Lexus, Subaru, Toyota VW</div>
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<b>Utilities</b></div>
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Alabama Power, Chugach Electric, Enstar Natural Gas, Dominion Virginia Power, GCI, Matanuska, Montana Dakota Utilities, Pepco, Memphis Light Gas and Water, Washington DC Gas</div>
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<b>Cellular,</b> all major companies</div>
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<b>Insurance</b></div>
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Geico, Country Financial, Safeco, State Farm</div>
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<b>Assistance Programs</b></div>
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United Way, Food Bank, catholic community Services - UT, St. Vincent de Paul - Seattle, Mercy Food Pantry - OKC</div>
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<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2tBNijN7HD81eR6U0oiuatsIqK_KnMxSPPW9zbwj_Z3uDLI2MYcLy8QZa49LL_2X8Zv3wR5wY1fDpCEWD0rM_cIKxGAkAbl70qRagLJncA2y62fEoRo2ng0C4CNrzWGVxLFCa9d6Isks/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.29.57+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="338" data-original-width="505" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2tBNijN7HD81eR6U0oiuatsIqK_KnMxSPPW9zbwj_Z3uDLI2MYcLy8QZa49LL_2X8Zv3wR5wY1fDpCEWD0rM_cIKxGAkAbl70qRagLJncA2y62fEoRo2ng0C4CNrzWGVxLFCa9d6Isks/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.29.57+PM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.800000190734863px;">James Brotherton shared this link of <a href="https://www.thrillist.com/news/nation/government-shutdown-free-food-deals-furloughed-workers?fbclid=IwAR0kA5zjCFljbnqNOGRLifMyTprT7kqmjVXzMVkjf4Qu7aRMsxnG6CvtMuk#" target="_blank">hundreds of food places</a> offering free food to furloughed federal employees.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFvESh9_F70eR2qScZdbIafANSR9uHn7zLfr2i1oL6aKgNBJdjmugFM2GYqBAowil_yfNg9cA5Qaxf43ntPqn9qfQPXX7BqRqVnQmywuPB7zvypBww1BA1ZTSceCS3u0_fq9Fcuju1XEo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.52.42+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="497" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFvESh9_F70eR2qScZdbIafANSR9uHn7zLfr2i1oL6aKgNBJdjmugFM2GYqBAowil_yfNg9cA5Qaxf43ntPqn9qfQPXX7BqRqVnQmywuPB7zvypBww1BA1ZTSceCS3u0_fq9Fcuju1XEo/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-26+at+5.52.42+PM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Julie Campbell shared this link of shutdown services from Montgomery Co., MD.</td></tr>
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<b>Things to do</b></div>
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Rosetta-stone gift offer, Anchorage Museum, Alamo Drafthouse Cinema, Adler Planetarium, American Bar Association continuing ed credits, Boulevard Brewing - KC, Enchanted Alaska, Oregon Zoo, OKC National Memorial adn Museum, Miami Free Admission to Museums, Harlem Globetrotters, Dallas Symphony, Utah's Hogle Zoo, U of Alaska SeaWolves games, <span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: , , "blinkmacsystemfont" , ".sfnstext-regular" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> </span><a data-ft="{"tn":"-U"}" data-lynx-mode="origin" data-lynx-uri="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpayitfurloughed.com%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR3J8AgrFuyqRUI5HVcGm8GbukwRM0U90drSGHlp3sfGYPvJjUi5GnAk_j4%23pabst&h=AT3qU3A8XC_smhN-iwa7qAijn8JHaRUk7C6lfYkZ4JeHoF5Njtomb8RCOc28TVGdaNGpajU3wZLGa4I56F1fAr7QVvVwPtdRzya8F-sVhbiI1_Amf5C2CEBbLVEoqUUqvDmPeMb1ZITPnecN_g5c-AzH" href="https://payitfurloughed.com/?fbclid=IwAR3J8AgrFuyqRUI5HVcGm8GbukwRM0U90drSGHlp3sfGYPvJjUi5GnAk_j4#pabst" rel="noopener nofollow" style="color: #365899; cursor: pointer; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">https://payitfurloughed.com/#pabst</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: , , "blinkmacsystemfont" , ".sfnstext-regular" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> </span></div>
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and this is the tip of the iceberg.</div>
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<br />Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-80929923254701086362019-01-16T06:32:00.001-08:002019-01-16T06:53:54.675-08:00The great government shutdown - day 27<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
I'm now furloughed for 27 days with no end in sight. Instead of developing courses, improving the EF Scale, thinking about the next generation of warning services, I'm at home growing increasingly concerned about how to weather this crisis. I do have other things to keep me busy. I'm still a meteorologist, and thus plan to keep my skills active, just through other means, such as this blog site. I'm also Chair of our local Scout Pack and the Pinewood Derby is coming up, along with other activities. I decided to see what working out 5 days a week does for me; I'm already noticing significant improvement. I help with my wife's proposal writing, and my son's homework. But I miss my other family at the Warning Decision Training Division, and I especially miss the interactions of my colleagues. <br />
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I'm beginning to see the potential of a war of attrition as federal employees lose hope that the government is a safe place to have a rewarding career. I'm also seeing the level of demoralization increase as people see how indifferent the administration is to the welfare of its employees. How can anyone working in the shutdown agencies not be demoralized when the president retweets whacko editorials calling for federal employees to just quit? I certainly hope that somebody cares and values the work that we do. </div>
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To this, I answer that people do care. I know how highly the emergency management community cares about the National Weather Service. They do every time the National Weather Service works with emergency management to prepare for big weather events like fires, blizzards, severe weather and hurricanes. I'm sure anyone looking to take their business to the next level cares that the Securities and Exchange Commission works. I'm sure the flying public cares that there are no delays in airport security and that air traffic controllers aren't distracted by how they're going to pay their bills. So far I've talked about the front face of the government, those employees that have to report to work in a shutdown. </div>
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They may be what the media talks about or what the public sees on a daily basis, but they are supported by a foundation of government employees that provide everything from research, administrative support, training, and more. They are the ones that are furloughed. Without them, everything will crumble. For my part, I'm one of those that provide training the National Weather Service forecasters. The forecasters consider what I do to be absolutely essential, and therefore I consider my job essential to the success of the National Weather Service. It's not just me, however. I work with an entire division devoted to training the NWS. We have cooperative institute research associates and contractors. None of the federal employees can do our job without their help. They're simply not expendable, like some commodity. They are professionals that become indispensable. As this shutdown continues, I fear that the foundation will start to give away as employees lose hope, or have to find other means to make ends meet. </div>
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For this reason, I wrote my senators expressing my grave concerns about the lack of interest in our welfare at the top. I wrote from my perspective. There are millions of other perspectives that our elected officials need to hear about. My letter is on top, followed by the responses of Senators Lankford and Inhofe below. The responses are a bit canned and they differ in content. But I hope you find some encouragement and if anything, some motivation to write your representatives and keep writing. </div>
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Dear Senator Lankford and Senator Inhofe:</div>
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My name is James LaDue and I work for the National Weather Service's (NWS) Warning Decision Training Division. My division's work is to develop courses and training on warning decision making to all forecasters in the National Weather Service. The types of warnings for which we conduct training include those related to severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, winter storms, flooding, and other hazards. The courses that we teach provides an important foundation for the success of the NWS in providing warnings to protect life and property. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The job I do is not just work but a passion of mine. I am the kind of person that looks forward to pushing the latest science into the operations of the NWS. Today my colleagues and I are unable to carry out our training because of the shutdown.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Now I weigh in on this shutdown with this letter as a private citizen. With no hope for a budget agreement any time soon, this shutdown is likely to become the longest in history. Consequently, this shutdown will likely produce larger and larger negative outcomes for our country as it continues to drag onward. Our division cannot educate incoming NWS employees on warning decision making until the shutdown is over. This is already causing a delay on the date in which our students will be trained to issue warnings. Even among the trained NWS staff, I'm already hearing of the stress and uncertainty impacting forecast and warning operations in the NWS. There is only so much time left before we will start to see these impacts badly affect the communities they serve.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Some of that is because many of my colleagues only have so much savings. And the rest is likely from a loss of feeling secure. My new federal employee colleagues are living with minimal savings or in high cost of living areas and cannot go on without pay after missing even a couple checks. Others have had events in their lives that have dwindled their savings and are now living closer to the edge of insolvency. All of us are shouldering the burden of increasing stress, not knowing when payment will come. We know sacrifice for country but practical matters of needing funds will begin to dominate everyone’s concerns. While creditors may show some leniency, they also have only so much patience.<o:p></o:p></div>
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While these issues come with every shutdown, this one has been accompanied with an excessive encroachment of politics into the federal workforce. I’m concerned about the posturing on both sides of the issues surrounding the budget impasse, especially the recent attempts to politicize federal employees. I don’t want to call out specific incidents because I think you’ve heard them too but I can if prompted. Like all federal employees, I work especially hard to make sure that my activities are as apolitical as possible. We are taught that every year when we must renew our ethics training. The politicization of federal employees by politicians to further their causes only serves to threaten our culture of ethical service and it must stop. To do so I implore the Senate to participate with the House to end this shutdown now so that the politicians do not attempt to further damage the apolitical nature of the federal workforce. Leave the politicians’ work to stay with the politicians by keeping the government open. <o:p></o:p></div>
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If we are to restore proper perspective of putting country before party, I implore the Senate to work with other branches of government to modify how appropriations are done so that federal employees and the people they serve don't suffer the consequences of budget disagreements. We are an embarrassment to ourselves and to every other country. No other country I'm aware of shuts down their government because of a budget impasse. I'm sure there are options to allow the government to continue functioning while budget disagreements are resolved. Needless to say, I've heard quite a few interesting options that I would love to share, though I'm sure you've heard of them. However, I'm sure you and your colleagues have reasonable options that can be considered in an amendment to the appropriations process. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Response by Senator Inhofe first</div>
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Dear Mr. LaDue:</div>
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Thank you for your correspondence regarding the recent government shutdown. As your voice in Washington, I appreciate being made aware of your views.</div>
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The President sent his budget proposal for fiscal year (FY) 2019 to Congress on February 12, 2018. This past June 2018, the Senate Appropriations Committee passed all twelve appropriations bills out of committee in a bipartisan manner. Of these twelve, nine have passed out of the Senate, and five have been signed into law by President Trump. These five enacted bills comprise over 75 percent of our government’s total discretionary funding for FY19. As a result, federal agencies like the Department of Defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs have been funded and will continue to operate without interruption. </div>
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<span style="display: inline-block; width: 33pt;"></span>The remaining seven funding measures that have not yet been signed into law were operating under a short-term continuing resolution until December 21, 2018. Due to dire security concerns on the U.S. southern border, the President made a commitment to increase border security funding and build a barrier at the border. Following the December 21 funding expiration, President Trump chose not to sign the pending funding measures because of their insufficient funding for border security. And, unfortunately, due to Democrats’ unwillingness to negotiate with our President, legislation appropriating funding for the federal agencies that fall within the jurisdiction of these seven funding measures expired with the continuing resolution on December 21, 2018. </div>
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<span style="display: inline-block; width: 36pt;"></span>The current shutdown is a burden on many Americans who faithfully serve our nation, and I am disappointed Democratic leaders have thus far not taken seriously the issue of border security. However, I am hopeful Democratic leaders reverse this obstruction and we reopen the government. As a member of Congress, one of my primary responsibilities is to ensure the safety of my fellow Americans. As such, I support President Trump’s effort to fully fund border security. </div>
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Proposals are currently circulating within Congress that would reopen the government but fail to providefull funding for a border wall—these simply defer a problem that we can no longer avoid. Our borders desperately need security. Insufficient resources allow thousands of immigrants to illegally enter the U.S. each year, and many of these illegal immigrants are involved in drug trafficking, human trafficking, and other crimes. Democrats, many of whom have supported satisfactory border funding in the past, are choosing to prolong the government shutdown by refusing to acknowledge the importance of this funding, which is in the best interest of all Americans. While I will continue to work to see that the federal government is reopened as soon as possible, I am committed to ensuring our southern border is secure. </div>
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Furloughed workers who may need assistance during this time can visit the Office of Personnel Management’s (OPM) website <a href="https://outreach.senate.gov/iqextranet/iqClickTrk.aspx?&cid=SenInhofe&crop=15553QQQ6369612QQQ6495944QQQ91935040&report_id=&redirect=https%3a%2f%2fwww.opm.gov%2fpolicy-data-oversight%2fpay-leave%2ffurlough-guidance%2f%23url%3dOverview&redir_log=183304614575585" style="color: #0563c1;">here</a> for guidance regarding how to operate under a funding lapse. Additionally, Congress recently passed S.24 - the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act, which ensures that backpay is provided for federal employees affected by the shutdown and allows employees required to work during the shutdown to use leave time. President Trump has agreed to sign this legislation.</div>
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Thank you, again, for contacting me regarding this issue. I look forward to supporting a solution that both provides border security funding and reopens important government agencies. If you are interested in keeping up with my work in the Senate, I encourage you to sign up for my online newsletter by visiting: <a href="https://outreach.senate.gov/iqextranet/iqClickTrk.aspx?&cid=SenInhofe&crop=15553QQQ6369612QQQ6495944QQQ91935040&report_id=&redirect=https%3a%2f%2finhofe.senate.gov%2fnewsletter%2fsign-up&redir_log=245111691669313" style="color: #0563c1;">https://inhofe.senate.gov/newsletter/sign-up</a> </div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 12px;">Sincerely,</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 12px;">James M. Inhofe</span><br />
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Response by Senator Lankford</div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt;"><br />January 15, 2019</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt;">Dear Mr. James LaDue, </span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Thank you for contacting me about the federal government shutdown. I appreciate your involvement in such an important national issue.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">As you are aware, the federal government is currently partially shut down, a carryover from the end of last year. The U.S. Constitution states that before federal tax dollars may be expended, Congress must first enact a law giving permission for those funds to be spent. Congress is required to fund the federal government with the passage of 12 appropriations bills by the end of fiscal year, which runs through September 30<span style="font-size: 8pt; vertical-align: super;">th</span>. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Over the past 12 months, Congress agreed on five of the 12 appropriations bills to fund most of the government including Defense, Veterans, Education, Health, Energy, and more. However, there were major disputes with the remaining 7 bills, most of which centered around the issue of border security.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The President requested, months ago, more federal funding for additional border security, including constructing more fencing and using additional technology along parts of the southern border. Our nation already has more than 700 miles of fencing, but some of it is old and in need of repair. Our office has been notified by border agents that there has been a significant decrease in the number of illegal immigrant entries since new fencing, constructed or replaced using $1.7 billion toward border security from the previous appropriations, has been placed in some areas. Border security has not always been and should not be a partisan issue. I support securing our southern border by adding technology, staff, and fencing where needed. National security should remain a top priority for Congress, and border security is a necessary part of it.</span></span></div>
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During a federal government shutdown, the entire government does not completely shut down. Essential services, national security, transportation, and safety functions continue to operate. Programs that are funded with mandatory funds (eg. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.) are not affected by a government shutdown. But there is tremendous cost financially and personally when the government shuts down since every agency without funding must cease new operations, workers are furloughed, contracts have to pause, grants stop, etc. Again, in this case about 75 percent of the government is funded, but the other 25 percent are feeling the consequences like not receiving their paychecks. I have spoken to many great federal workers and contractors that are frustrated and financially hurting during this shutdown. This is unacceptable.</div>
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I have <a href="https://outreach.senate.gov/iqextranet/iqClickTrk.aspx?&cid=JLankford&crop=15687QQQ17148934QQQ7827624QQQ9853424&report_id=&redirect=https%3a%2f%2ftwitter.com%2fSenatorLankford%2fstatus%2f1080872594117660674%3fref_src%3dtwsrc%255Etfw%257Ctwcamp%255Eembeddedtimeline%257Ctwterm%255Eprofile%253ASenatorLankford%257Ctwcon%255Etimelinechrome%26ref_url%3dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.lankford.senate.gov%252F&redir_log=214951906461520" style="color: #0563c1;"><span style="color: #0070c0;">worked</span></a> to end the shutdown politics and to propose a requirement that places the greatest burden on Congress and the White House when annual funding has not been completed. In addition, I’ve worked on a separate proposal that would keep the government open when Congress and the President cannot reach a funding agreement by the fiscal deadline. To force compromise and agreement on funding, it would include a series of weekly 5 percent cuts to congressional and White house funding. This is designed to dramatically ramp up pressure on decision makers to reach a funding agreement. This concept holds federal operations harmless while forcing Washington to do its job and carry out its constitutional responsibilities to fund federal operations.</div>
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I <a href="https://outreach.senate.gov/iqextranet/iqClickTrk.aspx?&cid=JLankford&crop=15687QQQ17148934QQQ7827624QQQ9853424&report_id=&redirect=https%3a%2f%2ftwitter.com%2fSenatorLankford%2fstatus%2f1076501394130173952%3fref_src%3dtwsrc%255Etfw%257Ctwcamp%255Eembeddedtimeline%257Ctwterm%255Eprofile%253ASenatorLankford%257Ctwcon%255Etimelinechrome%26ref_url%3dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.lankford.senate.gov%252F&redir_log=951479488721519" style="color: #0563c1;"><span style="color: #0070c0;">believe</span></a> that if Congress is unable to meet the appropriations deadline that the government should automatically and temporarily be funded at the previous year's levels. Executive branch cabinet members should not travel and Members of Congress must remain in D.C. until all negotiations are finished. The American people and federal employees should not be held hostage because Congress did not properly do its job. This bipartisan proposal will encourage congressional accountability.</div>
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I have also worked to develop major budget process reforms for Congress. We still operate under the 1974 Budget Act, which was created just after Watergate. It has always been a bulky process and has only worked as designed a total of 4 out of 44 years since it was enacted. Our three-step budgeting process and 12 appropriations bills process is not used anywhere else in the world.</div>
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We should reduce the number of appropriations bills to pass every two years to no more than four bills. We should mandate floor debate for greater transparency. We should conduct more oversight hearings, and we should completely rework the Congressional Budget Office process. Currently, I have about five other Members who are actively working with me on this budget redesign. I will continue to work with Members from both sides of the aisle to get the changes we need to fix this broken process that favors the status quo and spending more. I recently <a href="https://outreach.senate.gov/iqextranet/iqClickTrk.aspx?&cid=JLankford&crop=15687QQQ17148934QQQ7827624QQQ9853424&report_id=&redirect=https%3a%2f%2fwww.youtube.com%2fwatch%3fv%3dEuzvdKL9FpU&redir_log=785275912706296" style="color: #0563c1;">spoke</a> on the Senate floor to discuss my proposals to prevent government shutdowns.</div>
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Congress can also consider a continuing resolution (CR), which continues last year's funding into the current fiscal year and kicks the can of responsibility further down the road. A CR is better than a government shutdown, but it is also a terrible way to fund the government. Simply copying last year’s priorities into this year gives no oversight, no opportunity for change, and no certainty. Also, new contracts cannot start under a CR since there is no certainty for the future of any program. Congress has used 178 CRs to fund the government since 1977. Congress has not followed the correct annual process to fund the federal government since fiscal year 1995. While not every CR is bad, it is certainly not as good as individual spending bills that have more input and greater transparency. A little sunlight is a very good disinfectant for government waste.</div>
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As I continue to serve on the U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations and the Senate Finance Committee, I will fight for responsible federal spending and a long-term solution to our national debt. I will also continue my work as a member of the U.S. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee as we work to fix the nation's broken immigration system.</div>
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I hope this information is helpful. Please feel free to contact me again or sign up for my e-newsletter via my website at <a href="https://outreach.senate.gov/iqextranet/iqClickTrk.aspx?&cid=JLankford&crop=15687QQQ17148934QQQ7827624QQQ9853424&report_id=&redirect=http%3a%2f%2fwww.lankford.senate.gov%2f&redir_log=275171147907217" style="color: #0563c1;">www.lankford.senate.gov</a><span style="color: #1f497d;"> </span>for more information about my work in the U.S. Senate for all of us.</div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt;">In God We Trust,</span><br />
<img alt="" height="65" src="https://outreach.senate.gov/iqextranet/Customers/JLankford/SenatorSignature48.jpg" style="border: 0px solid currentcolor;" width="202" /><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 12pt;">James Lankford</span><span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /><span style="font-size: 12pt;">United States Senator</span></span> </td></tr>
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Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-34259243717032841062019-01-11T14:39:00.004-08:002019-01-11T14:42:00.283-08:00The Port Orchard, WA tornado of Dec 18, 2018The strongest tornado in Washington State since 1986. hit the town of Port Orchard, a suburban-style town about 40 mi west of Seattle and east of the southern Olympic Mountains. This story from KOMO nicely summarizes what happened.<br />
<a href="https://komonews.com/news/local/storm-survey-team-heads-to-gauge-damage-from-port-orchard-tornado">https://komonews.com/news/local/storm-survey-team-heads-to-gauge-damage-from-port-orchard-tornado</a><br />
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According to the NWS Seattle office, the tornado produced EF2 damage to homes in a neighborhood and also a storage facility. While the tornado track was relatively short, it was as wide as 300 yards. This event is the latest in several notable fall and early winter tornadoes that have occurred in western WA and northwest OR in recent years and is similar in strength to one that formed in the Pacific Ocean and came ashore <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2016/10/manzanita_twister_confirmed_as.html" target="_blank">to strike </a>Manzanita, OR in October of 2016.<br />
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Where did this tornado come from and was the threat predictable? Tornadoes are exceptionally rare in this part of the world; on average, only 1-2 occur in western Washington in a year. So there are not very many cases in which to build a rich repository of cases in which to build an analysis of common tornado-producing patterns. This means we have to depend on detecting the ingredients favorable for producing tornadoes. The tough part of this is that we don't know all the ingredients for tornadoes and even if we did, some may require observations that just aren't available to us on an operational basis. Even in the traditional tornado alley, it's difficult to determine what exactly happened to create tornadoes in any one event. </div>
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This case is no different in its marginal characteristics and didn't express the kind of predictability that operational meteorologists depend on to make a confident forecast. The Storm Prediction Center only forecasted general thunder in their <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getacrange.pl?date0=20181218&date1=20181218&csrf=0532cb5f0a17249e555893f43369fe3fec7c5f7d" target="_blank">morning and midday severe weather outlooks</a>. This is, after all, the time of year when cold upper-level systems combine with the mild Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures to generate instability, and this day was a classic case. Enough instability to generate convection is one thing, but a tornado friendly environment? SPC isn't anticipating one. The base situational awareness of forecasters and the public would likely be starting from a relatively low point.</div>
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But I don't think this event was undetectable, nor even unpredictable, and we have surface observing networks, model analysis, GOES data, and especially a WSR-88D not too far away. Some of these data suggest that it would be possible to ramp up situational awareness quickly when the evidence appears to show that the morning forecast was understating the threat. Let's assume the first indications that the environment may be favorable for tornadoes comes from the behavior of the storms themselves.</div>
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The first indication likely appeared from the development of the first detectable radar-observed signatures of rotation aloft. By far, of all storm types, supercells provide the precursor signatures with the most predictability. Squall line mesovortices can provide some predictability but with less lead time. And nonmesocyclonic tornadoes (aka landspouts) often provide no precursor signatures from radar at all. So, in this case, was there evidence of a supercell responsible for this tornado?</div>
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Here is the KATX WSR-88D radar loop for the two hours leading up to the tornado. This four-panel loop started near noon PST (labeled here 1:59 pm CST in the reflectivity panel). The parent cell of the tornado first appeared around an hour later, or 1 pm PST near Skokomish, WA. Already the half degree velocity appears to show some positive shear. Another 27 minutes had to pass, or by 1:32 pm PST before the radar indicates that the parent cell strengthened enough to produce a real mesocyclone signature with a rotational velocity of 40 kts (This lesson on WDTD's home page describes a <a href="https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/rac/severe/supercell-v/presentation.html" target="_blank">mesocyclone</a> and how to measure rotational velocity). At about the same time the differential reflectivity showed the onset of high Zdr values accompanying the reflectivity core. The half degree beam from KATX centered around 1.2 km above the radar. High Zdr values in high reflectivity most likely show large raindrops. But at the next elevation scan up, around 2.1 km, the same high Zdr values appeared at this time and here the surrounding values dropped. The Quillayute, WA sounding that morning showed the melting level around 1.4 km. This was likely a <a href="https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/rac/severe/updraft-severity-dp/presentation.html" target="_blank">Zdr column</a>, a common sign of an updraft transporting liquid droplets above the melting layer. These two features, updraft, and a mesocyclone persisted for 30 minutes with only minor fluctuations as the storm approached Port Orchard. A cell with a persistent mesocyclone and updraft fits the description of a supercell. The only feature not readily apparent is the absence of some kind of hook echo or a low-level reflectivity notch. I'm not surprised we don't see these features since this storm was quite small, both vertically and horizontally. </div>
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<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">A four panel loop from the KATX WSR-88D covering the two hours prior to the Port Orchard tornado. The panels start with reflectivity (upper left), base velocity (upper right), correlation coefficient (lower left) and differential reflectivity (lower right). </span></i><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwclYw68AaMhMfA3cl7kcgDXjEPvavS4kgEEnH5_HHujgWBIOK0ITzmIl6ncgvyLmVv2-uo1dSFIQPyjY8zFNdL2GWRjWXcpK24A6o8gx66VAW6qFiJm-FEvyPZRqD6Muscfgic18FFTo/s1600/20181218-KATX-4pZVCCZdr-elev13-1527PST.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1144" data-original-width="1600" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwclYw68AaMhMfA3cl7kcgDXjEPvavS4kgEEnH5_HHujgWBIOK0ITzmIl6ncgvyLmVv2-uo1dSFIQPyjY8zFNdL2GWRjWXcpK24A6o8gx66VAW6qFiJm-FEvyPZRqD6Muscfgic18FFTo/s320/20181218-KATX-4pZVCCZdr-elev13-1527PST.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>A radar loop over the two hours leading up to the tornado from the WSR-88D KATX. The reflectivity appears in the upper left, base velocity in the upper right, differential reflectivity (Zdr) in the lower right, and correlation coefficient (CC) in the lower left.</i></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI5oD8NUPcPPdbVKW37chJOLMEpdNVE4duY99r-tdZ6GqzHogcRMxxMRUI8aVC3BgBZkgcF-93KJnyFNBA4ecPcQ1ddzOS6DKWNjfUHa3VgEHaZn-I54-0Vssf5M4w554yTve9yVoO2hc/s1600/UIL.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1180" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI5oD8NUPcPPdbVKW37chJOLMEpdNVE4duY99r-tdZ6GqzHogcRMxxMRUI8aVC3BgBZkgcF-93KJnyFNBA4ecPcQ1ddzOS6DKWNjfUHa3VgEHaZn-I54-0Vssf5M4w554yTve9yVoO2hc/s320/UIL.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>The Quillayute, WA sounding from 2018 Dec 18 12 UTC.</i></td></tr>
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<b>Were these signatures worthy of a credible tornado threat?</b><br />
Accoing to the latest <a href="https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/courses/woc/documentation/severe/twg16-reference-sheets.pdf" target="_blank">tornado warning guidance</a> quick guide, 25% of mesocyclones with a rotational velocity of 40 kts are associated with tornadoes. This is pretty high, and achieves the highest skill if the decision is made to classify this mesocyclone as tornadic when it reaches this rotational velocity. But there is a significant disclaimer. The guidance makes no mention of the environmental conduciveness to creating a tornado. Plenty of atmospheres can produce supercells but with no capability to generate a significant tornado threat. While the guidance was taken from environments with tornado watches, was this environment worthy of seriously considering this guidance? Well, the morning sounding shows a few signs that say yes, and a couple that gives me pause.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFPuzQ450xSLjFYzh0mSBbM64rDV1nsDag6ZYDaBKxH2_Fxp4988ucqKCJqPmMD5Zdcm-VAABZOoaIMbwIRThvn4YTlVFOgi_0jFqsOeMCjDguGmeiJFqRUXRdBjR4GZi0g0kGgyEGYz0/s1600/tor-probabilities-20181218-1332PST.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="588" data-original-width="1600" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFPuzQ450xSLjFYzh0mSBbM64rDV1nsDag6ZYDaBKxH2_Fxp4988ucqKCJqPmMD5Zdcm-VAABZOoaIMbwIRThvn4YTlVFOgi_0jFqsOeMCjDguGmeiJFqRUXRdBjR4GZi0g0kGgyEGYz0/s400/tor-probabilities-20181218-1332PST.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>The left chart shows the probability of a mesocyclone being tornadic with a given low-level vortex signature strength presented by low-level differential velocity in m/s (LLDV) or rotational velocity in kts (LLRV). The right panel indicates the Heidke Skill Score should the decision be made that the given mesocyclone is tornadic as a function of LLDV and LLRV. The sources of information come from a 2003 Tornado Warning Guidance (TWG), a WDTD study, and Smith and co-authors in 2015. The purple filled circle with a black border represents the rotational velocity of the Port Orchard mesocyclone at 1332 PST.</i></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">First, the good signs. The most favorable sign was a rather impressive 35 kts of bulk wind difference in the lowest 3 km above the surface, 21 kts in the lowest one kilometer (bulk wind difference is a very simplified representation of a more proper shear measurement). Even more impressive, the shear direction sharply bent clockwise almost 90 degrees at roughly one km. The hodograph looked quite similar to that of many tornado-producing profiles found in multiple composite studies. The low-level 'sickle shape' of the hodograph permits a large amount of streamwise vorticity to be ingested into any convective updraft that manages to form. Two authors, <span style="font-family: "timesnewromanpsmt";">John M. Esterheld and Donald J. Giuliano, <a href="http://www.ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/article/view/33/38" target="_blank">studied</a> the association between the low-level shear orientation and the storm-relative low-level wind and the categorization of supercells from nontornadic to significantly tornadic. That angle is what's called the critical angle, and a value of 90 degrees would lead to having all of the horizontal vorticity represented by the shear to be streamwise. The critical angle appeared to be the nearly 90 degrees for the Quillayute sounding. </span></span><span style="font-family: "timesnewromanpsmt";"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "timesnewromanpsmt"; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span> On the other hand, the feature giving me pause was that the thermodynamic profile barely showed any instability. One representation of instability, CAPE, only yielded a meager 134 j/kg, and that's the maximum version available based on the morning sounding at Quillayute. This amount was well below anything that the tornado warning guidance can offer as enough to generate a strong enough updraft for a supercell. I would be looking for more before considering a reasonable prospect to generate a strong enough updraft. The only positive attribute to the thermodynamics was that the low-level lapse rate was somewhat high, or in other words, there was not much convective inhibition. But the presence of the storm in the afternoon surely pointed to more instability being available to the south and east of the Olympics than what the sounding showed. Sure enough, the Regional Atmospheric Prediction (RAP) model painted a more unstable picture with nearly 280 j/kg of uncapped CAPE using a 100 mb deep mixed layer parcel from a 22 UTC analysis at a point near the storm's location. A 100mb layer may be asking a lot for a storm who's depth was only 6 km. Thus I checked the surface-based CAPE and it was 490 j/kg. Perhaps the optimal layer from which a parcel may be drawn would be in the lowest 50 mb, but I think you get the picture that adequate CAPE appeared to be available.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg23FD1n36EnZOoyR_Or4qRSbzHjfuI6O-7gXecHb1YZSnKrfMzGYCdM4ZHGagZ6KiE_jnoq64rmDoh0eFJuBPL8IGWexv7u85EDCSnVCMB6pdQAJounvfFpi7vGycbCbQffyapGEtGz8/s1600/IMG_7545.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1180" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg23FD1n36EnZOoyR_Or4qRSbzHjfuI6O-7gXecHb1YZSnKrfMzGYCdM4ZHGagZ6KiE_jnoq64rmDoh0eFJuBPL8IGWexv7u85EDCSnVCMB6pdQAJounvfFpi7vGycbCbQffyapGEtGz8/s320/IMG_7545.PNG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>The RAP sounding near Port Orchard valid 2018 Dec 18 22 UTC. </i></td></tr>
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The 0-3 km bulk wind difference and the storm-relative helicity in the 0-1 km and the 0-3 km layers were higher in this RAP sounding than for the Quillayute sounding. Though the critical angle was less the component of the low-level shear oriented perpendicular to the 10 m storm-relative flow was still quite high. And perhaps it's quite likely that the actual hodograph shape may have had a higher critical angle. BTW, the critical angle, and the strength of the lower level shear really point to the fact that the streamwise vorticity was quite high. Any mechanism to tilt such vorticity would readily produce a low-level mesocyclone, even for storms not deviating to the right. The last severe storms conference in Stowe VT featured several studies of different types that indicated that we should pay more attention to streamwise vorticity. As an aside, we appeared to be circling back to this parameter since it's importance in producing mesocyclones was first studied by Robert Davies Jones in the early 1980s.<br />
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Okay, I only showed two sounding points, and one was from 12 UTC. But what was the spatial pattern of the environment capable of producing supercells and tornadoes? According to the 1-hour forecast of the 21 UTC RAP, Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP), most of western Washington State, and offshore areas had the potential for supercells. The only area not favorable was located in the northeast Olympic Penisula and north, where both the deep layer vertical wind shear and CAPE were lacking in the RAP analysis. The SPC formulation of the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) was below 1 in all areas except for coastal Oregon where CAPE was high enough to keep the parameter above 1. The RAP sounding above showed that the mixed layer CAPE likely brought down the STP to 0.2 but the fixed layer STP, which depends on surface-based CAPE, was higher. Again, sometimes mixing the lowest 100 mb of the atmosphere may be too much to ask when we're talking about a shallow convective layer such as this day. This even was not the first time that a significant tornado developed with barely any effective layer STP but higher fixed layer STP.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrCYr0mKhqsjGd0-8A7mgOQJdyJ830AIkvJFTu0ETU3BqNOqosYtg4o4kRHR2HWg4eMweTX1Rd_E5BRpBa_Dzk0AUqZGj6jFxOuNjn60eXlWfDRsfo9xDlHmHMzpgmZDDD92Pz6kYb4zw/s1600/IMG_7535.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrCYr0mKhqsjGd0-8A7mgOQJdyJ830AIkvJFTu0ETU3BqNOqosYtg4o4kRHR2HWg4eMweTX1Rd_E5BRpBa_Dzk0AUqZGj6jFxOuNjn60eXlWfDRsfo9xDlHmHMzpgmZDDD92Pz6kYb4zw/s320/IMG_7535.PNG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.800000190734863px;"><i>Above, the 21 UTC 1 hr RAP forecast of fixed layer Supercell Composite Parameter overlaid with 850 and 500 mb winds.</i></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Above, the 21 UTC 1 hr RAP forecast of fixed layer Significant Tornado Parameter.</i></td></tr>
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Thus returning to the question of whether there was enough information to issue a tornado warning. I would say that there was. Some events are completely undetectable and thus deny us the luxury of engaging in 20/20 hindsight. But this one left enough to show that we can engage in this activity. <br />
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The KATX radar was fortunately close enough to depict a supercell with a mesocyclone strong enough to have perhaps a 30% chance of a tornado provided the environment supported the possibility of tornadoes. The morning Quillayute sounding and the afternoon modified RAP analysis sounding showed hodograph profiles, sufficient CAPE, and low enough CIN to be favorable for tornadoes. I won't even consider whether the boundary layer relative humidity was sufficiently high. The environment had high relative humidity in the lowest 3 km and all soundings showed dewpoint depressions of only a few degrees at the surface.<br />
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Sometimes we need a little convincing that what appears to be favorable ingredients for rotating storms actually produced something elsewhere. Well, it appeared this supercell was not the only one in the area. The Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) depicted another mesocyclone track in the Pacific that occurred a couple of hours earlier.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrwbLW6M-QAqwt2NnxvYxrOrj5TLhCcxCdx0dwi9ll3_fR22kIfNMPFMmtCJqsEMyNkccItVtVytO2j5WdfHdt83uar4A8QmFEEDYZVhyphenhyphena7y_9hIRtxYu37JAwWIRAr6x0MS3AXX6RB5k/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-12-21+at+5.34.32+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="648" data-original-width="1003" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrwbLW6M-QAqwt2NnxvYxrOrj5TLhCcxCdx0dwi9ll3_fR22kIfNMPFMmtCJqsEMyNkccItVtVytO2j5WdfHdt83uar4A8QmFEEDYZVhyphenhyphena7y_9hIRtxYu37JAwWIRAr6x0MS3AXX6RB5k/s320/Screen+Shot+2018-12-21+at+5.34.32+PM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The MRMS rotation tracks product accumulated over six hours ending at 23 UTC 18 Dec 2018. A strong mesocyclone track appeared offshore west of the mouth of the Columbia River. The other, southeast of the Olympics.</td></tr>
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More importantly, back to the question of the longer range outlook, was there any signal in the NWP guidance from earlier in the day that ought to be reconsidered? Well, the 12 UTC SPC High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system did predict correctly that there would be plenty of CAPE, or at least a few hundred joules per kilogram, as the multi-panel display shows around the time of the tornado. The HREF also showed that convective cells would be plentiful according to the 11-hour paintball plot of >40 dBZ reflectivity valid for the same time. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhobKh8M4I222orGiUDX7pCBufx6brJXFaW_EbsdmsH5I9rPh7xBCqmtPP-tsRRiACiz3tcv_d6UawF5l2dRT9i6ZGZ-hOssrAPW6J76WakYWfD1i2kVACfqKyUNV96ERNYsW7nx5j2Vzg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-09+at+3.56.30+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="1020" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhobKh8M4I222orGiUDX7pCBufx6brJXFaW_EbsdmsH5I9rPh7xBCqmtPP-tsRRiACiz3tcv_d6UawF5l2dRT9i6ZGZ-hOssrAPW6J76WakYWfD1i2kVACfqKyUNV96ERNYsW7nx5j2Vzg/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-09+at+3.56.30+PM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>The HREF surface-based CAPE member plot valid 18 Dec 2018 22 UTC</i></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmWyAXotuhdpEMip0LvYRMgPSUSXsVMdXg2XwP_tIpgm_GhBlOL7q2dk82nezH3m5r18bJqj8xJ4DOq5DbeD-l3Ro82vFDxQzYGWjKZTQMrkyGwO3OaVzHD_P1vWRH9hEcH8s32u40Qlw/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-09+at+4.06.43+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1016" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmWyAXotuhdpEMip0LvYRMgPSUSXsVMdXg2XwP_tIpgm_GhBlOL7q2dk82nezH3m5r18bJqj8xJ4DOq5DbeD-l3Ro82vFDxQzYGWjKZTQMrkyGwO3OaVzHD_P1vWRH9hEcH8s32u40Qlw/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-09+at+4.06.43+PM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.800000190734863px;"><i>The HREF paintball plot of reflectivity > 40 dBZ from each member, valid 18 Dec 2018 22 UTC</i></td></tr>
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The HREF even showed that the fixed-layer sigTOR parameter would have an up to 30% chance of exceeding 1. However, most of the high probabilities were close to the coast where the CAPE was the highest. What happens inland was fracturing and lowering of probabilities. While not zero, it would be hard to have any confidence of a significant threat, at least significant enough to warrant a tornado outlook from the 12 UTC runs. And the updraft helicity forecast showed only one short-lived, low-value, plot in southwest Washington – hardly the kind of result that would promote anyone to raise the risk level.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihwCN4S-O2bE5PouYTfhXFRL6GfV-P9zL7pMl-zdgSGz7qDjiZLndLiVQTlql7xqlzrLfxyf7MwtL4WRhIALjG8AGk3u0VD9Xrm2kdENRo67Vnkkhl6fgwAY5FSs-i2m3J31yicUiuZ_I/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-09+at+3.53.38+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1018" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihwCN4S-O2bE5PouYTfhXFRL6GfV-P9zL7pMl-zdgSGz7qDjiZLndLiVQTlql7xqlzrLfxyf7MwtL4WRhIALjG8AGk3u0VD9Xrm2kdENRo67Vnkkhl6fgwAY5FSs-i2m3J31yicUiuZ_I/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-09+at+3.53.38+PM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.800000190734863px;"><i>The HREF probability of fixed-layer sigTOR parameter exceeding one, valid 18 Dec 2018 22 UTC</i></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkFwRrSS1i5s8qJlNI5U76updEt300yx0uyB-uLwLhAwfDO6bVpSK5ZBVuT51d8YXrJXFKwZEeeBJrzLS5ufGxDpfAitBlgTrfIC1mTfHl5rrktmb17LSlWF4urx4x0MNLXS_7P5JrALQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-01-09+at+4.03.29+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="818" data-original-width="1017" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkFwRrSS1i5s8qJlNI5U76updEt300yx0uyB-uLwLhAwfDO6bVpSK5ZBVuT51d8YXrJXFKwZEeeBJrzLS5ufGxDpfAitBlgTrfIC1mTfHl5rrktmb17LSlWF4urx4x0MNLXS_7P5JrALQ/s320/Screen+Shot+2019-01-09+at+4.03.29+PM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.800000190734863px;"><i>The HREF four hour ensemble maximum 2-5 km updraft helicity ending 19 Dec 2018 00 UTC</i></td></tr>
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So while the morning guidance didn't impress, there was reason to be on the watch for that rare event. The HREF shows CAPE and a nonzero probability that sigTor values exceeding one. The environment appeared to exceed expectations by just enough to allow more than one storm to produce a significant mesocyclone, one of those with a confirmed tornado, and the other not known due to its location. <br />
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<br />Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-60290223561602774722018-08-21T19:27:00.001-07:002018-08-21T19:55:38.533-07:00The tornado wind measurement of 19 August 2018 in Inola, OK <div>
Here's an interesting observation the Inola, OK mesonet site recorded after a tornado passed near or overhead. The 2 meter, 3 second wind gust observation wound up being higher than that located at10 m. The tornado responsible for this wind observation developed just southwest of the mesonet site, then struck a farm a mile to the northeast before moving on several more miles before dissipating. Overall, this tornado was rated EF1 based on the damage to some barns and trees.</div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">An infographic of the tornado track and the reported mesonet wind gusts from the Inola tornado of 2018 August 19. (courtesy of NWS Tulsa)</td></tr>
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This event would seem to confirm that tornadoes can produce stronger winds very close to the ground and shows that tornado wind environments don't adhere to the log normal vertical wind speed profile assumed during larger, straight line severe wind storms. While this rare measurement at two levels seem to confirm that tornadoes produce stronger winds below 10 m, there are some things I heard from several knowledgeable people in the mesonet program that may suggest the difference in wind gusts may be due to differences in instrumentation. I contacted Chris Febrich, James Hocker, and Cindy Luttrell at the Oklahoma Climate Survey, the organization in charge of the <a href="http://www.mesonet.org/" target="_blank">Oklahoma Mesonet</a>. They mentioned that the 2 m anemometer is a standard wind cup while the one at 10 m is an RM Young propeller vane anemometer. While not immediately obvious, their hypothesis suggested that the RM Young 10 m anemometer was not directed into the wind when the strongest gust arrived. A possible reason for this was that the wind shifted rapidly with time and that the RM Young at 10m may not have turned into the wind in time to sample the full speed of the peak gust. A propeller vane anemometer isn't likely to sample the wind at full speed unless pointed directly into the wind. And some time is needed for the vane to respond to a new wind direction. Conversely a cup anemometer isn't sensitive to changes in horizontal wind direction. Chris sent these few wind direction observations to highlight his concern.</div>
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171 degrees at <span class="m_-4063270740517556135gmail-aBn">20:36</span></div>
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267 degrees at <span class="m_-4063270740517556135gmail-aBn">20:37</span>(moment of peak gust)</div>
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289 degrees at <span class="m_-4063270740517556135gmail-aBn">20:38</span></div>
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Now, a vane anemometer is designed to completely reorient into a new wind direction in a much faster time interval than implied by these measurements. But we are talking about a small tornado and so the changes in direction may have happened much more quickly.<br />
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Chris also pointed out that the mesonet record contains no instances where the 2m wind gust exceeded the 10m at the same place and time. Within that period of record were four other mesonet sites struck by tornadoes.</div>
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So this doesn't put cold water on the possibility that stronger winds occurred at 2m vs 10m but it may mean we cannot use this case to show otherwise. Still, these are interesting observations which align well with the observed damage from this tornado. The link below gives you a drone-based view of the tornado path from where it passed through the mesonet site and then to the northeast to a farm residence. </div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistLauraMock/videos/1541739375930622/&source=gmail&ust=1534988188613000&usg=AFQjCNExIx3zLBdLyZjdlWYIIXtHYb1eQA" href="https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistLauraMock/videos/1541739375930622/" target="_blank">https://www.facebook.com/<wbr></wbr>MeteorologistLauraMock/videos/<wbr></wbr>1541739375930622/</a></div>
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The peak wind speed at 2m altitude is quite consistent with the damage incurred to the farm that can be seen in the drone footage and also witnessed by Scott Peake that you can see in his video link below.</div>
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<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.facebook.com/severestudios2/videos/273194563283820/&source=gmail&ust=1534988188613000&usg=AFQjCNGfep42pA5tkc7agMaVcDnDiDOuTA" href="https://www.facebook.com/severestudios2/videos/273194563283820/" target="_blank">https://www.facebook.com/<wbr></wbr>severestudios2/videos/<wbr></wbr>273194563283820/</a></div>
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These kinds of observations don't come by very often, and when they do, it's most likely courtesy of a field project such as <a href="http://www.cswr.org/contents/twirl.php" target="_blank">TWIRL</a> (Tornadic Winds: In-situ and Radar observations at low Levels) operated by the <a href="http://www.cswr.org/" target="_blank">Center for Severe Weather Research</a>. The teams in this project deployed portable surface stations into tornadoes to measure winds at 1m above the ground while mobile radar teams measured the winds overhead. The TWIRL project successfully deployed surface stations into two tornadoes, the 2018 May 9 Sulphur, OK tornado and the 2018 May 24 Dodge City area tornadoes. Neither tornadoes had measured winds at 1m exceeded the wind speeds measured by nearby radar. However, efforts to simultaneously measure winds at low and high levels in previous field programs, like VORTEX2, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00114.1" target="_blank">netted examples where winds measured at 10 m above ground exceeded the radar observations</a> at higher altitudes. And another event occurred where a serendipitus, and somewhat scary, encounter by a CSWR team produced very high resolution profile of winds where the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00070.1" target="_blank">maximum measured was only 3.5 m AGL</a>.</div>
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So why the fuss about whether the strongest winds are at low vs higher levels? It's because engineers design buildings to withstand a certain level of winds tuned to a reference level of 10m (the kind measured at most airports) over 3 second durations and then assume the winds are weaker below that level and stronger above. This wind profile is called a log normal wind profile. So for example, engineers would typically construct a building able to withstand a 3 second long gust of 90 mph at 10 m above ground where they would assume the wind at 3 m above ground would be perhaps 75 mph, and a wind at 100m above ground would be stronger. But the evidence shows tornadoes produce wind profiles that don't follow the log normal profile. And the result could be stresses on buildings that greatly exceed that produced by a standard log normal profile. But to what level tornadoes deviate from the log normal profile is something we don't know. Wouldn't it be nice if we did? Then we could have a better idea of how to design buildings with improved tornado resistance. The only way to find out is with more observations in a tornado boundary layer. That's why even serendipitus observations are important.<br />
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BTW, I am a Chair of a standards committee for the American Society for Civil Engineering (ASCE) that seeks to put the guidance in wind speed estimates into a document that includes not only anemometers and radars but also wind speed estimates from the EF Scale, tree-fall patterns, remote aerial measurements and building forensics. Hopefully soon we'll also include a section on photogrammetry such as what could be derived from Scott's video above.</div>
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Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-85375536216823920202017-12-31T15:53:00.000-08:002017-12-31T15:54:28.045-08:00The Strong Great Lakes Mesovortex of 30 - 31 December 2017<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;">One of the strongest lake-induced mesoscale vortices I've seen struck Marquette, MI yesterday with 60 mph wind gusts and an amazing longevity as it survived a passage over the UP of Michigan and then dropping</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> straight south down the long axis of Lake Michigan last night to eventually make final landfall midday today on the Michigan, Indiana shoreline. The Great Lakes produces numerous vortices during its convective lake effect season, ranging from small </span>misocyclones<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> less than 4 km wide documented by a study by Steiger and co-authors in 2013, to 4-50 km mesoscale vortices documented by Laird and co-authors in 2001. Some </span>misocyclones<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> have been reported to have caused winds strong enough to break tree limbs along the Great Lakes shorelines possibly as they've intensified into weak tornadoes. But I have not heard of the larger vortices being strong enough to do the same kind of damage. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">These vortices can produce impacts when well-behaved snow bands suddenly take sideways departures to visit areas not predicted to receive snowfall. This one produced impacts even in an area well-accustomed to lake effect snow. The snowfall rate and high winds shut down at least one state highway where an accident shut down US-41 south of Marquette. An employee at the NWS Marquette shot two pictures of the event, one of the main convective band associated with the mesoscale vortex approaching them and then a few minutes later, a whiteout.</span></span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQJlgF5STUssEuok-C8LLA34WHLMYMaqk5t4alkVIN1sRvku-KhZWH_fwm2kpahkpFBmgdHXTjp2C4tm5cVQScv8-qDCx7Nvb9AaGpwSWtNIARE5JdF3VyDgsCuRc1CRfrDZwGGIvlK80/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-12-31+at+4.44.01+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1034" data-original-width="1164" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQJlgF5STUssEuok-C8LLA34WHLMYMaqk5t4alkVIN1sRvku-KhZWH_fwm2kpahkpFBmgdHXTjp2C4tm5cVQScv8-qDCx7Nvb9AaGpwSWtNIARE5JdF3VyDgsCuRc1CRfrDZwGGIvlK80/s320/Screen+Shot+2017-12-31+at+4.44.01+PM.png" width="320" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">A tweet showing US-41 shut down due to whiteout conditions and an accident.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A picture, taken from the NWS Marquette, MI, shows the main convective band approaching shore to the north.</td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The peak wind gusts reported reached 60 mph near Marquette as the convective band on the western flank of the mesoscale vortex passed over the station. The surface map provided by NWS Weather and Hazards Viewer.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">As the mesovortex passed to the south and into Lake Michigan, residents around the Grand Traverse Bay tweeted pictures of funnel clouds, certainly representing tornado-like vortices. I'm not sure where these waterspouts were located relative to the mesolow but they may have been within a few hours of its passage. It goes without saying that the mesolow was ripe with vorticity and the available convection to help concentrate into misocyclones and perhaps even weak tornadoes.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKVwNaS9jTMkeKeWvMOm56KCg9DsF26wADn-Ea_IUgIKRgS2UHfwE0nMyDD1XPTJlGo9gYDKWsQC6vz52W_EKAeu7dowCa6JCI5AtoAm8yhvZVVZwha97cGirxkusHg_qfCmUSKoYkpL0/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-12-31+at+4.15.18+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1292" data-original-width="1280" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKVwNaS9jTMkeKeWvMOm56KCg9DsF26wADn-Ea_IUgIKRgS2UHfwE0nMyDD1XPTJlGo9gYDKWsQC6vz52W_EKAeu7dowCa6JCI5AtoAm8yhvZVVZwha97cGirxkusHg_qfCmUSKoYkpL0/s200/Screen+Shot+2017-12-31+at+4.15.18+PM.png" width="198" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://twitter.com/NWSGaylord/status/947266131450105861/photo/1" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/NWSGaylord/status/947266131450105861/photo/1</a></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The impacts continued down Lake Michigan although perhaps in an unexpected way. The lake effect band plaguing the south shore of Lake Michigan for some hours quickly weakened before the arrival of the mesovortex, potentially providing a narrow window of unimpeded travel. However the arrival of the mesolow meant that snowbands reoriented themselves and reached areas not expected to experience lake effect given prevailing synoptic scale wind direction. The east-west band slapped a broad section of the southern lake Michigan shoreline with rapidly dropping visibilities and enhanced winds capable of causing brief whiteouts. While the shoreline didn't see the 60 mph winds from yesterday's Lake Superior landfall, they were certainly strong enough to simulate the wintertime equivalent of a thunderstorm but with the extra benefit of whiteout conditions and added ice cover on road surfaces.</span></span><br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dwMsNWebRwo0STbZMQO53TB0_JHZbtdmBJf2HnqZ-fPlxyZg70mvijo0MtCOAxHb-YlAy5XaQEJktxazddBzA' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">A video loop of the Northern Indiana WSR-88D showing the impact of the mesolow on the location and behavior of the snow bands.</span></span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Maximum wind gusts from today's mesolow landfall in southern Lake Michigan. Image courtesy of the Weather and Impacts display from the NWS.</td></tr>
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<span style="color: #1d2129;"><span style="background-color: white; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;">This mesovortex event provided a platform to showcase two amazing advancements in meteorology. The first is the major upgrade in our GOES. The recent launch of GOES-16, and its placement as the eastern operational satellite provided a spectacular rapid update loops of the development and intensification of the mesolow over Lake Superior. the last minute explosion of convection that the canvassed the northern view from the NWS MQT office was well-captured one one-minute intervals from the satellite, manifested as rapidly expanding and glaciating anvils, similar to a summer thunderstorm. The satellite captured smooth ribbons of lake effect cloud streets converging into the mesolow from the north and east. The Marquette WSR-88D complimented the satellite by showing the internal structure of the mesolow and the strong winds whipping around its western flank. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;">The next day the new GOES captured another convective explosion just offshore of Lake Michigan's southern shore. The satellite explicitly showed the new convection convert from bright liquid water clouds to mostly ice the same way it did for summer thunderstorms. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; letter-spacing: -0.11999999731779099px; white-space: pre-wrap;">The second showcase was the eerily accurate prediction by the NAM, NAM 3km and the HRRR models from even two days in advance. This amazing success was partly courtesy of the excellent analysis of the low pressure in advance of the arctic front over Lake Superior from the day before it intensified. But the models could take advantage of the excellent lake temperature and ice cover analysis, as well as the model advancements that allowed them to accurately depict the structure and motion of the mesolow. </span></span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NAM 3 km surface temperature and wind analysis from the night before the mesolow formed and intensified before hitting Marquette.</span></td></tr>
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As an example, the 3 km NAM from the previous night accurately depicted the strong winds on the mesolow's western flank approaching Marquette during the middle of the day. It may have fallen short of the peak observed wind speeds but it certainly was good enough to show that a sudden onset whiteout conditions could be possible. And then in even more spectacular fashion, the same model run moved the mesolow down the axis of Lake Michigan. </div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0z8BL5932c95hpwiUxgvV5oubZQAotgcYlEsYEMUGhq5tyjNH2FLK8cjSNLTkhGR05E6dy4jgqI8A2E5IQoJpocwhdvdUvdfj8BetSoloDQ8HyAyPwxDxVzuTnOEoiNcx-HYfCs-azEo/s1600/nam3km_mslp_wind_ncus_16.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="783" data-original-width="1024" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0z8BL5932c95hpwiUxgvV5oubZQAotgcYlEsYEMUGhq5tyjNH2FLK8cjSNLTkhGR05E6dy4jgqI8A2E5IQoJpocwhdvdUvdfj8BetSoloDQ8HyAyPwxDxVzuTnOEoiNcx-HYfCs-azEo/s320/nam3km_mslp_wind_ncus_16.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">NAM 3 km 16 hour forecast surface winds and sea level pressure from 00 UTC Dec 30.</span><br />
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This persistent scenario depicted by the models prompted at least one NWS office to draft up a forecast and publish headlines announcing the mesolow's arrival a day ahead.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheICJxDRAMj0TbDA_zjoYGltzyA9jY7XQPsf0kytB7_7YRkF4PzY2Paqa69Ti5RLjQ1aN762CqUaJ-d86emgd7n-aQaqxagQTBJcKpT_VGi7KO39W0IQnVEsnXJJE7s2QWR7xkrlh8abU/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-12-31+at+5.28.19+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1132" data-original-width="1158" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheICJxDRAMj0TbDA_zjoYGltzyA9jY7XQPsf0kytB7_7YRkF4PzY2Paqa69Ti5RLjQ1aN762CqUaJ-d86emgd7n-aQaqxagQTBJcKpT_VGi7KO39W0IQnVEsnXJJE7s2QWR7xkrlh8abU/s320/Screen+Shot+2017-12-31+at+5.28.19+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Finally, this mesolow has many of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone and polar lows. It intensified over relatively warm waters of Lake Superior while a deep convective layer allowed for more intense concentration of the loose low pressure into something much tighter than I've seen before. A deep convective layer for this time and place is only about 3 km. The center of the low was surrounded by warm air, of 19-20 deg F, not the single digits or below zero readings from inland. Perhaps the strong warming was partly courtesy of strong sensible heat fluxes when the mesolow began to intensify. It's a feedback process that can help explain the genesis of tropical cyclones. In this cold environment, the process can only go so far. Yet we're not talking about a cat 5 potential environment, just one strong enough to do what we've seen here.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzBcD_YoGBLxEUbr5NDxbIS95byvdVsaUIcG14ZaE3Ilz5HHshhQtAbLEHilaO9BW58Un2lUu1yl_92NTIu9Mjyhyphenhyphent-htWBBMaRGF1HADmn6dzqbOamqpcOJoyzVSGYHjgCF-F-jnOcgM/s1600/nam4km_2017123112_006_42.19--86.88.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1180" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzBcD_YoGBLxEUbr5NDxbIS95byvdVsaUIcG14ZaE3Ilz5HHshhQtAbLEHilaO9BW58Un2lUu1yl_92NTIu9Mjyhyphenhyphent-htWBBMaRGF1HADmn6dzqbOamqpcOJoyzVSGYHjgCF-F-jnOcgM/s320/nam4km_2017123112_006_42.19--86.88.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A model sounding over Lake Michigan near the mesolow depicting the 3 km convective layer and vigorous vertical motion (horizontal orange lines). Image courtesy of COD and SHARPPY.</td></tr>
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<span class="art_authors" style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span class="NLM_string-name" style="color: #444444; display: inline; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">Laird, <span class="NLM_given-names" style="display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px;">N. F.</span></span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">, </span><span class="NLM_string-name" style="color: #444444; display: inline; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;"><span class="NLM_given-names" style="display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px;">L. J.</span> Miller</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">, and </span><span class="NLM_string-name" style="color: #444444; display: inline; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;"><span class="NLM_given-names" style="display: inline; margin: 10px 0px 0px;">D. A. R.</span> Kristovich</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">, </span><span class="NLM_year" style="color: #444444; display: inline; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">2001</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">: </span><span class="NLM_article-title" style="color: #444444; display: inline; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">Synthetic dual-Doppler analysis of a winter mesoscale vortex</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">. </span><span style="color: #444444; font-stretch: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">Mon. Wea. Rev.</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">, </span><b style="color: #444444; font-stretch: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 19px; opacity: 1; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">129</b><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">, </span><span class="NLM_fpage" style="color: #444444; display: inline; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">312</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">–</span><span class="NLM_lpage" style="color: #444444; display: inline; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 10px 0px 0px; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">331</span><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">, doi:</span><a class="ext-link" href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1175%2F1520-0493%282001%29129%3C0312%3ASDDAOA%3E2.0.CO%3B2" style="color: maroon; letter-spacing: normal; padding: 0px; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;" target="_blank" title="External link, opens new window">https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0312:SDDAOA>2.0.CO;2</a><span style="background-color: #ffffe4; color: #444444; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">. </span><a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/doi/10.1175/1520-0493%282001%29129%3C0312%3ASDDAOA%3E2.0.CO%3B2" style="color: maroon; letter-spacing: normal; padding: 0px; text-indent: 14px; white-space: normal;">Link</a></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span class="art_authors" style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">Laird, N.F., L.J. Miller, and D.A. Kristovich</span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">, </span><span class="year" style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">2001</span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">: </span><span class="art_title" style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"><a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493%282001%29129%3C0312%3ASDDAOA%3E2.0.CO%3B2" style="color: maroon;">Synthetic Dual-Doppler Analysis of a Winter Mesoscale Vortex.</a></span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-style: italic; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">Mon. Wea. Rev.,</span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"> </span><b style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">129</b><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">, </span><span class="page" style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">312–331,</span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"></span><span class="doi" style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"><a href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129%3C0312:SDDAOA%3E2.0.CO;2" style="color: maroon;">https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0312:SDDAOA>2.0.CO;2</a></span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span class="art_authors" style="background-color: transparent;">Linders, T. and Ø. Saetra</span>, <span class="year" style="background-color: transparent;">2010</span>: <span class="art_title" style="background-color: transparent;"><a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JAS3131.1" style="color: maroon;">Can CAPE Maintain Polar Lows?.</a></span> <span style="background-color: transparent; font-style: italic !important;">J. Atmos. Sci.,</span> <b style="background-color: transparent;">67</b>, <span class="page" style="background-color: transparent;">2559–2571, </span><span class="doi" style="background-color: transparent;"><a href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1175/2010JAS3131.1" style="color: maroon;">https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3131.1</a></span> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span class="art_authors" style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">Steiger, S.M., R. Schrom, A. Stamm, D. Ruth, K. Jaszka, T. Kress, B. Rathbun, J. Frame, J. Wurman, and K. Kosiba</span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">, </span><span class="year" style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">2013</span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">: </span><span class="art_title" style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"><a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00226.1" style="color: maroon;">Circulations, Bounded Weak Echo Regions, and Horizontal Vortices Observed within Long-Lake-Axis-Parallel–Lake-Effect Storms by the Doppler on Wheels.</a></span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-style: italic; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">Mon. Wea. Rev.,</span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"> </span><b style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">141</b><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">, </span><span class="page" style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;">2821–2840,</span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"></span><span class="doi" style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"><a href="https://doi-org.ezproxy.lib.ou.edu/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00226.1" style="color: maroon;">https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00226.1</a></span><span style="color: black; letter-spacing: normal; white-space: normal;"> </span></span><br />
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</span>Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-58844447154294211202017-01-22T10:52:00.003-08:002017-01-22T10:53:33.292-08:00Rare and dangerous high risk of tornadoes in GA and FL<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I haven't seen tornado outbreak environments like this in some years. The latest Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook still has a high risk for severe storms including long-track significant tornadoes for portions of south Georgia into north Florida. The last time that a high risk was issued by the SPC was almost three years ago according to Skip Talbot's Facebook post, and possibly no high risks have been forecast into the Florida peninsula. Now storms are starting to form along and ahead of a cold front in the western FL panhandle and north along the GA, AL border. Newer storms are firing up along the cold front south into the Gulf. These should be of interest to anyone concerned about their safety which should include especially the high risk zone. <br />
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Later, more isolated storms will fire to the south and threaten the Florida peninsula. While they may be more isolated, the environment will also support the potential for strong tornadoes. The risk may not be high for Tampa, Orlando and Melbourne, but if you're unlucky enough to be in the path of a potentially tornadic storm, assume it'll produce significant tornadoes putting you at risk.<br />
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Areas north of the high risk may not see an obvious environment supportive of tornadoes because of the widespread rain in southern Georgia. However this system is unusually far to the south, and our collective experience, limited. Thus I suspect that even western to central Georgia may see a tornadic threat as the surface low deepens dramatically to something rarely seen in central GA - up to five standard deviations below normal for this time of year. Outside of hurricanes, the sea level pressures will be very low down into FL as well. As a result low-level winds will be strong and that means that if you're experiencing a cloudy, cool rainy atmosphere now, that may change quickly to one favorable for severe weather very quickly. Residents in the Huntsville, AL area on the super tornado outbreak day of 2011 can relate to that. Temperatures were in the 50's all afternoon and then in the last hour, jumped to near 70 deg F quickly followed by a mile-wide long-tracked tornado.</div>
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Furthermore, the probability that any one supercell will produce a significant tornado currently stands in the 15% range according to research by Smith and Thompson and Marsh of SPC in the last few years. Get used to those numbers being extremely high. As cases are gathered and return intervals calculated, you may see them as rather unusually high. More importantly is that these numbers will go up from here as the day progresses. The key thing to consider is that area hodographs feature large storm-relative helicity, very humid atmosphere (in an absolute and relative sense) and lots of buoyancy for thunderstorms to grow uninhibited, as seen from this sounding from the HRRR in the FL Panhandle ahead of the storms.</div>
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Bottom line, if your sheltering location is dusty, or cluttered, clear it now!</div>
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Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-35136002210455009652017-01-12T21:39:00.004-08:002017-01-12T21:39:53.282-08:00What will roads be like Friday-Saturday central OK?The next winter storm is upon us one week after the cold snow we experienced. This time it's ice that's in the forecast and one big question is what the roads will be like. After a nearly record warm day on Wednesday with temperatures near 80 deg F, the ground temperatures are at least 10 deg F warmer than right before the snow storm and with temperatures expected to drop to just a couple degrees below freezing, it'll be tough to cool the ground surface to below freezing.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrR6Ad0k_qoyJPFRekGel5qEWUYNInthnaj2vZWHcGZJJgRGpZbHt66_4rlFT8ZAIYH8GNgHnskHGbiN-p4HKEbHSrHzRDPJtioYgJFVrHXMKPFoM6rD_3O3urX1UwborbrdQ37-BYeh8/s1600/Slide18.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrR6Ad0k_qoyJPFRekGel5qEWUYNInthnaj2vZWHcGZJJgRGpZbHt66_4rlFT8ZAIYH8GNgHnskHGbiN-p4HKEbHSrHzRDPJtioYgJFVrHXMKPFoM6rD_3O3urX1UwborbrdQ37-BYeh8/s320/Slide18.png" width="320" /></a></div>
But we're talking about freezing rain, right? It makes all the difference in the world and this time the trend will be to keep ground temperatures warm. As opposed to already frozen precipitation where upon landing and melting, extracts heat from the ground, rain deposits energy into the ground upon freezing. If the ground, or the road surface, were to freeze, the energy will have to be extracted by another mechanism. A continually fresh and deepening source of arctic air could accomplish this task. However forecasts from all numerical guidance and the NWS paint a scenario where the near surface air barely remains below the melting point throughout Friday and into Saturday morning, early. This is hardly the needed reservoir of cold required to cool the ground below the melting point in the face of all the latent heat to be added as the rain attempts to freeze.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2pi4yIN0NnOvpbf1Bw7CrxMJl2Bt_MEZM300CcP8xxZwHUAl3X4b5NegwGp7xUgRDpuXxbN5D2iGLCY-pz-VddtkDySNEzPuAHpyLe9rw33fzVaMsaDO8e_XePAHef-XI2phfLJaQ0mY/s1600/Slide24.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2pi4yIN0NnOvpbf1Bw7CrxMJl2Bt_MEZM300CcP8xxZwHUAl3X4b5NegwGp7xUgRDpuXxbN5D2iGLCY-pz-VddtkDySNEzPuAHpyLe9rw33fzVaMsaDO8e_XePAHef-XI2phfLJaQ0mY/s320/Slide24.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Consider also that the rain will be falling from a layer nearly at 60 deg F a few thousand feet above ground and you are asking a lot of barely subfreezing air to cool the rain drops while also extracting heat from the ground and successfully fighting off the latent heat added by any attempts at freezing. <br />
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All this points to road surfaces remaining wet in central OK throughout the duration of the freezing rain event. <br />
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Now the exposure of elevated roads paint a different story. The reservoir of heat will be eroded from multiple sides, allowing the surface to potentially reach a little below the melting point and allowing the potential for falling rain to freeze. Bridges and overpasses could become slick if untreated. But this event is well-forecast and hopefully the OKDOT attacks elevated surfaces before precipitation starts. Since the NWS forecasts the potential for hazards to occur, they can't depend on knowing for sure what our efforts of mitigation may entail and thus pay heed to these graphics below. <br />
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The bottom line is that elevated surfaces may become slick, if untreated in central OK while colder air could be sufficient for all untreated roads in NW OK.<br />
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Ice will accumulate on all trees, power lines in central and NW OK. However NW OK is most likely to bear the brunt of the heaviest rainfall. Three quarter to one inch accumulation of ice will cause power outages there, and into Kansas and adjacent Missouri. While this storm will not likely be equivalent to the catastrophic ice events of the past 16 years, it'll be bad enough.</div>
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<br />Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-15181732818191608172017-01-05T08:52:00.002-08:002017-01-05T08:52:47.634-08:00Fast moving snow system to hit central OK tonightOur first accumulating snow event of the season is looking more likely tonight. I've been monitoring the forecasts over the past several days and only by two days ago did the forecasts have enough confidence that snow would indeed happen. The impacts will be quite clear. Confidence is high that a period of accumulating snow will occur between midnight and 6 am, with the heaviest rates occurring within a couple hours of 3 am. The timing and accumulations are pretty well represented by the 09 UTC short range ensemble forecast (SREF) of snow depth, to which the NWS forecast office agrees. However, the SREF forecasts a large uncertainty in snow fall, anywhere from 0.5 to 6"! If you're the cautious type, you may want to consider planning for a 4+ inch event with much of it coming down in a hurry just before the morning rush hour begins tomorrow.<br />
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But you may want to ask how much of that snow will stick to the roads. Considering the possibility that no road crews go out tonight to pre-treat the roads with salt, an apt possibility for neighborhoods and minor roads, then all of the falling snow will remain frozen after landing. We've had nearly 36 continuous hours of subfreezing air, broken only by a few hours of temperatures a little above freezing yesterday afternoon. The Oklahoma mesonet soil temperatures 2-5 cm below ground in east OKC responded to yesterday's warm temperatures by rising to 40 deg F but since have fallen below 35 deg F this morning. Other central OK mesonet soil temperature sites have responded similarly. With plenty of arctic air feeding in from the north, all forecast 2 meter temperatures remain well below freezing, with a falling trend, through tonight and into tomorrow morning. The ground temperatures should easily fall below freezing before the first snow falls. Certainly all elevated roads will be even colder.<br />
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The impact means all untreated roads will be snow covered by 5 am tomorrow. These include neighborhood roads and minor streets, or in other words, where most people will attempt to depart. On the other hand, I would expect main snow routes, highways and bridges to be treated in advance of the snow. Once they're treated the chemicals should easily melt a 2" snow cover within a couple hours of the snow ending which should be in time for the majority of a morning commute as a majority of forecast guidance anticipates snow tapering off by 6 am. I would expect an hour or two delay should be sufficient to allow any remaining snow on treated routes to melt.<br />
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Now to be cautious, there are a few possibilities that may cause further delays for you. The temperatures tomorrow will remain well below freezing and so all unplowed snow in shaded roads will remain and there's a good chance enough clouds will remain that even normally sunny road surfaces will stay below freezing. Another issue could be if the DOT is delayed treating roads until the morning. You'll know quickly about that if you come upon a normally treated road and it's white. Or there is a third possibility of snow covered roads, even in treated areas, if the snow fall exceeds forecasts or if the heaviest falling snow gets delayed into the morning commute. <br />
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What is the possibility of getting more snow or the heaviest snow occurring after 6 am? I expect the possibility of both to be there. To understand why, consider the plots below. Our event will come from the intersection of an upper level storm system, marked by the 'L' in northern California this morning, and the elevated frontal boundary marking the top of the arctic air dome shown by the strong temperature gradient at the 700 mb level seen below. This type of upper-level storm provides forcing for rising motion well above the ground usually in the shape of a wave and the front provides the assist a little lower in the form of bands parallel to the temperature contours. The relative humidity pattern at the level of the frontal boundary aloft, also at 700 mb, indicates the air is already saturated and likely lifting along bands. When the upper-level system begins to arrive late tonight one or more bands along the front may intensify and drop heavy snow, heavier than forecast. The higher resolution models show some indications of bands, however the southern one doesn't last long appears to be more a reflection of the upper-level system. Yet a stationary band across the metro area is in a realm of possibilties and it could last into the morning commute resulting in plowable snow accumulations and more snow covered main routes.<br />
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One final interesting thing to consider with this snow event is whether or not we'll get the beautiful six-sided dendrite crystals. Consider that to get this kind of snow, we want to see strong rising motion occurring in the -12 to -18 deg C temperature layer aloft. Consider a forecast sounding below from the morning NAM model. The cold air at low levels is forecast to become cold enough to generate dendrites but there's not much in the way of rising motion. However thanks to warm air above the arctic air layer, we extend the optimal temperatures for dendrites into the layer where strong rising motion is forecast to occur. So with the cold surface temperatures, we should wake up to lots of dendrites. That's in theory. In reality, lots of factors may interrupt the processes to create spectacular dendrites but at least the possibility is there.</div>
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<br />Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-11693421092471809012016-01-21T22:03:00.000-08:002016-01-21T22:03:07.034-08:00If anything, the snow fall could be even bigger in DCThere's nothing more to add from tonight's guidance that wasn't considered in last night's. The uncertainty remains about the northern edge of the big snows as the SREF suite still insists NYC to Boston will get a major dump while the GFS keeps its southern solution. <br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">The NAM forecast of total snowfall for a 10 to 1 snow ratio from this evening emulates the narrative the earlier SREF depicts of heavy snow fall well into New England. New York City to Boston would join in on the fun. Courtesy Pivotal Weather</td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Meanwhile the GFS denies an epic snow fall for New York City to Boston. There is no scenario that denies the DC area an epic snowstorm. Courtesy of Pivotal Weather</td></tr>
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The big snow fall rates of 2-4"/hr will happen tomorrow pm in southwest VA, then spread into the DC to Shenandoah Friday night, finally into southeast PA and adjacent NJ Saturday afternoon. I favor this because it follows the motion of the 700mb WAA pattern, and perhaps the trough of warm air aloft as the upper-level low expands in size. However there's evidence that the DC area could be in the pivot region allowing more persistent snow well into Saturday night while at the same time the main system shifts more to the east.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Composite reflectivity and precip type from the high resolution NAM valid 03Z Saturday morning. The heaviest snow rates will be at the latitude of the DC area.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNlVIUs2YaVJ1D9DL_s1FAlnb2VXdv3D9XKuFifANz1eh8v8QRw1BM32rI4r7ItRi5dw_QB_VVKRriJwgW720YmVHj6-ZueupBlDWA37r0CkXUjVhuy85PTB3tt5PfTd3R3-MSEv4PZkQ/s1600/Slide10.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNlVIUs2YaVJ1D9DL_s1FAlnb2VXdv3D9XKuFifANz1eh8v8QRw1BM32rI4r7ItRi5dw_QB_VVKRriJwgW720YmVHj6-ZueupBlDWA37r0CkXUjVhuy85PTB3tt5PfTd3R3-MSEv4PZkQ/s320/Slide10.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">By 15 Z Saturday the heavy band is forecast to shift north into Southern New England to southeast Pennsylvania. Snowfall remains in the DC area courtesy of the wrapping elevated and saturated warm air advection.</td></tr>
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The snow fall rates alone will be sufficient to overwhelm all but the most frequently plowed highways. Considering the advertised monster snow on a Friday night, I'm anticipating most roads to be clear of traffic allowing whatever plowing planned to be unhindered. If you are daring to go out, you may be in light company. <br />
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I anticipate this snow to be equivalent to what's experienced in a heavy lake Ontario long axis snow band. I've experienced this and the following is a quick synopsis of what you would experience. Basically I will assume you have enough ground clearance to handle up to a foot of snow on the highway though any more than that and you may need a hummer. Expect the <1/4 to 1/16 mile visibility in large dendrites clusters to rimed snowballs to slow you down to the point that snow will quickly clog up your wind shield wipers. You will need to stop frequently to give them a whack before starting up again. Clicking on the high beams will give you the feeling of the Millennium Falcon engaging hyperdrive. No doubt the sensation will be distracting to say the least. <br />
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I'm expecting at some point the excessive mess-alpha scale vertical motion field will sufficient vertical instability to generate lightning, momentarily blinding you in a sheet of brilliant orchid purple. No doubt you'll expect to hear a blast of thunder but with the insulating effect of billions of frozen hydrometeors the sound will be surprisingly muffled. If there is to be lightning, the snow may wind up falling as soft graupel the size of nickels to quarters. Such intense convective frozen precipitation has been documented by <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00258.1" target="_blank">Picca et al. (2014)</a> in another epic snowband in Long Island. With temperatures approaching the melting point aloft, some of the grapple may appear refrozen, however the convective nature of the heaviest part of the band will prevent pure sleet. You'd have to be outside the band to see sleet, especially southeast of the district. One thing that may happen is that the band will be sufficiently electrified to charge the snow flakes and soft graupel to the point that it will stick to everything. It's quite likely signs will become caked with snow. Perhaps your car may as well requiring even more frequent wiping with your glove on the highway shoulder, should you find it. With the bad visibility and snow-caked highway signs, you'd better have a GPS enabled map to make sure you don't miss the exit should you wish to bail. If you do bail, make sure you've got 4-wheel drive or chains. There are plenty of hills that will offer up a free uncontrolled ride into something you don't want to hit.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1rdAjbtaBb1LquQiSB5ag67jx8nMIrnAPwrUH6Gr_x8AaGGx1I7TY0fiqRVYBquOYN4Mr50SZWWodHjCa7BZlPn1bbMYSd1a7FC3rimlIOT-RWWENx8WpN9LCvtEiNed2JUxQQac-Z8k/s1600/Untitled.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1rdAjbtaBb1LquQiSB5ag67jx8nMIrnAPwrUH6Gr_x8AaGGx1I7TY0fiqRVYBquOYN4Mr50SZWWodHjCa7BZlPn1bbMYSd1a7FC3rimlIOT-RWWENx8WpN9LCvtEiNed2JUxQQac-Z8k/s320/Untitled.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Forecast sounding for Dulles International Airport from the 00 Z 4km NAM (1/22) valid for 09 Z 1/23. Note layers of conditional instability in the midlevels sufficient for generating lightning perhaps.</td></tr>
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One parameter I don't expect will be a serious problem for your Friday night journey will be gobs of blowing snow in the immediate DC area. The winds will be probably 10-20 mph in tree-covered residential areas, enough for blowing snow to temporarily blind you. However you should still be able to drive 15 mph or so without needing a spotter ahead of you to let you know where the edge of the highway happens to be. In serious lake effect bands the winds can be over 40 mph and that's when I've needed a spotter. By Saturday morning sunrise, the real pressure gradient will kick in and that's when you'll see the mass aerial migration of accumulated snow on trees, rooftops, and clearings. Serious whiteouts, of the lake effect kind, will commence and your journey will be accompanied by frequent intermissions while you attempt to figure out where the road went. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK5Cw8VvopYOvP6X373dN3vrLN9ij9ViIBj8IQYzXZcCj52iXIBzxpHS527YP15qPI_l7K1hyphenhyphenG21xEBzgCKsdpbfjS4Lkeyf0El96zjexYEqRzlh_Dp7rFZyB27AO9wqhzGlil9Fw-fXU/s1600/Slide15.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK5Cw8VvopYOvP6X373dN3vrLN9ij9ViIBj8IQYzXZcCj52iXIBzxpHS527YP15qPI_l7K1hyphenhyphenG21xEBzgCKsdpbfjS4Lkeyf0El96zjexYEqRzlh_Dp7rFZyB27AO9wqhzGlil9Fw-fXU/s320/Slide15.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ten meter wind forecast from the 00Z 4km NAM valid for 03 Z Saturday morning. The winds in the DC residential and urban areas will be < 20 mph for the most part.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiES_9sLsdy9kwkzsX5nPGyjhwOGtarBwvoTECdEvnSc1n6HwHsYItdxt_ADmBtzL12JQXoqrNnFGda6KwgIWO6lkvp5eRgOLnZaFlJYazzAemAafWZlJC7VPY44ouHwaAjk7zPz9T9EMg/s1600/Slide17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiES_9sLsdy9kwkzsX5nPGyjhwOGtarBwvoTECdEvnSc1n6HwHsYItdxt_ADmBtzL12JQXoqrNnFGda6KwgIWO6lkvp5eRgOLnZaFlJYazzAemAafWZlJC7VPY44ouHwaAjk7zPz9T9EMg/s320/Slide17.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ten meter wind forecast from the 00Z 4km NAM valid for 15 Z Saturday morning. The winds in the DC residential and urban areas will be > 20 mph for the most part.<br /><br /></td></tr>
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At this point, you don't want to just drive around a relatively tame, marginal blizzard. You want to see true gale force winds resulting in blinding amounts of blowing snow. For that, you'll need to head closer to the coast. The problem is that most coastal areas will likely experience ice pellets and thus all you'd experience is the sound of high-velocity peppering of BB's against your windshield. Instead, you may want to head to coastal NJ, preferably the northern half, south of Barnegat Light, to perhaps Avalon. This may be the sweet spot where the easterly low-level jet will smack unimpeded into the coast and then some distance inland while intersecting the cold enough temperatures and intense vertical velocity. This is the area that I'd expect true blizzard conditions. However, some of that action may get down to the northern Deleware and Chesapeake bays too. That's good because if you're meandering around the DC area in the snow, you will not make NJ for a loooong time. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV79a9Ir4y0Ulw7aU5LPZtaFg0K98M2_YV55V6qskPnMbwxUL4TxiFhuHNH16oBOX9utLL-EpUjGnsBAPNXaQMAOSE8sCqVFxYB9HsAAdWqWbC4BSkBtyGTW1iFC4DO7aOMq1k8HMEmCQ/s1600/Slide22.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV79a9Ir4y0Ulw7aU5LPZtaFg0K98M2_YV55V6qskPnMbwxUL4TxiFhuHNH16oBOX9utLL-EpUjGnsBAPNXaQMAOSE8sCqVFxYB9HsAAdWqWbC4BSkBtyGTW1iFC4DO7aOMq1k8HMEmCQ/s320/Slide22.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">probability of blizzard from the WPC winter storm impact graphics. Notice that coastal NJ, northern Deleware are really the only places to be hit. Coastal New England and Long Island may get blizzard but the SREF may be wrong about the northern extent of the snow.</td></tr>
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This is probably a good thing anyway because you may wind up being a little too adventurous and decide to drive into the path of boardwalk-breaching waves or perhaps a falling power pole. The surge will be impressive anywhere along the Deleware to New Jersey coasts. With the full moon, the morning high tide will send water up to 4 ft above normal water level at that time which will offer the remnants of the 20' waves offshore to nail you.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7M9H2O3O_3-pW5ic4oI-IXso74tafQXLG-OQLIDp4BBfIj1cLBk78LDR6o9Ofib6zWcTJtG_brPA4S7rsLQrkjQC0NRaLZWwk1LInL-glLUt5QRk9-F-mGWymfPtjvIQJ_eqbhy-qvvw/s1600/Slide51.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7M9H2O3O_3-pW5ic4oI-IXso74tafQXLG-OQLIDp4BBfIj1cLBk78LDR6o9Ofib6zWcTJtG_brPA4S7rsLQrkjQC0NRaLZWwk1LInL-glLUt5QRk9-F-mGWymfPtjvIQJ_eqbhy-qvvw/s400/Slide51.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Waterlevel forecasts (normal tide in solid, forecast water level in dashed and confidence interval shaded) for Barnegat Light, NJ courtesy of SUNY Stonybrook.</td></tr>
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<br />Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-90030420818940061162016-01-20T21:32:00.000-08:002016-01-20T21:34:07.115-08:00The oncoming MidAtlantic blizzard still on track and my pick for the most miserable weather <br />
The latest forecasts for the MidAtlantic blizzard are on track for an extremely heavy snowfall event starting in the DC area by afternoon on Friday. With no melting expected after the snow flakes land on the ground, I'm expecting roads will quickly become snow-covered within an hour of first snow except where roads have been treated. And I'd expect more roads to be treated than with todays light snow, big impact event. But look at how quickly the SREF members pile on the snow within a couple hours of onset. The heaviest rates appear to occur with the strong surge of elevated warm air advection along the front end of this system Friday night. I don't imagine any road treatment, except for aggressive plowing, will be able to stay ahead of the accumulating snow. Considering that everyone will be expecting impassible conditions Friday night, I don't expect big traffic jams and numerous trapped people and thus plowing will not be seriously inhibited.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-hkca8ij18dUwrv9koXP1W-CNYl3oy2L9T4RilJivxDG7IZsItVwa09J6lb8uTIwScnkOqtAUjqGGVORHJp39JBvKWXZTTyaLkgcHCffBZR34Tql4HQ5ICtWBHJCQSA_R9hs2Fl_Q8IM/s1600/Slide02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-hkca8ij18dUwrv9koXP1W-CNYl3oy2L9T4RilJivxDG7IZsItVwa09J6lb8uTIwScnkOqtAUjqGGVORHJp39JBvKWXZTTyaLkgcHCffBZR34Tql4HQ5ICtWBHJCQSA_R9hs2Fl_Q8IM/s400/Slide02.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Forecast SREF snowfall accumulation at Washington DC. <br />
<a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/</a></td></tr>
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At least the winds will not be strong Friday night and visibilities will be restricted mainly by snow to 1/8 mi. Don't expect them to stay light by Saturday, however. While snowfall rates will diminish, roads exposed to fields could experience local whiteout conditions. <br />
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The 4km NAM does show one area where strong winds may begin earlier - the Shenandoah valley. Downslope or gap winds could enhance blowing snow and drop visibilities pretty quickly Friday night in some areas. Would this impact I-81? It would be interesting to find out.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB6yqCHpvbSsNMpxEzdUZTmpe3PB9ghc_qErdk2DXFfjwWdChsWwjugo0QBD9NpaiD3jY3R3bbHqZ9f81y1aV9s0t-9UmSPoDlBZzHPPLG51vikD19JA4qejNTnXFB9Wlvo6PdmDi1Ksc/s1600/Slide08.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB6yqCHpvbSsNMpxEzdUZTmpe3PB9ghc_qErdk2DXFfjwWdChsWwjugo0QBD9NpaiD3jY3R3bbHqZ9f81y1aV9s0t-9UmSPoDlBZzHPPLG51vikD19JA4qejNTnXFB9Wlvo6PdmDi1Ksc/s400/Slide08.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Forecast 10 m winds from the NAM 4km model. <br />
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=cmprefptype&rh=2016012100&fh=63&r=ma&dpdt=</td></tr>
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By Saturday the storm will be at its peak across the DC area and into Philadelphia to the New Jersey Coast. What I find impressive is the continuing variability in the thickness and precipitation fields from the short range ensemble from late this afternoon. The precipitation fields are quite varied amongst the SREF members, with the front precip edge ranging from southern to northern Pennsylvania. Likewise the snowfall accumulation forecasts are equally variable, more so from points along the northern fringe of the expected precipitation. Just like last year, I'll be thinking of the challenge facing NWS forecasters from State College to New York City when they have to come up with a snowfall forecast. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwfkvDIFlIgQSiL7uNkot54DspLz0gr-VhUsDDcwZowIgvONLJ57H13u4YFFLiyR4tG8XA-MH8O4oK5W5NiJ-VkL4G4bnVbkBb1exdwLNjTZCwMsF41QG6uqgSkxnquXhn4UNlABGT19w/s1600/Slide08.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwfkvDIFlIgQSiL7uNkot54DspLz0gr-VhUsDDcwZowIgvONLJ57H13u4YFFLiyR4tG8XA-MH8O4oK5W5NiJ-VkL4G4bnVbkBb1exdwLNjTZCwMsF41QG6uqgSkxnquXhn4UNlABGT19w/s400/Slide08.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">SREF forecast of 3 hour precipitation and sea level pressure for Saturday morning from the Wednesday afternoon run.<br />
<a href="http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html">http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html</a></td></tr>
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If I picked a spot where conditions would be most horrid, it may not be with the purely heaviest snowfall rates that may fall from the Shenandoah to northwest Maryland but instead, the northern New Jersey Coast. This area on Saturday will likely face the highest chance of blizzard conditions while at the same time the NOAA storm surge model depicts water level departures of more than 4 ft and waves over 20 ft high. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6uc6_0IpTldl_FHGW1YLjRUWl4sa98_ihOSwwDT2TkuAShf26zb3mo-DLcSJ_b7i65qTf1X2RxarmVudXou2XF9M7_v9Hp5dwvmj9HmfcwKN7IZ-E_lEpaJSwKVXSLioSSoSbbQl9QQ0/s1600/Slide13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6uc6_0IpTldl_FHGW1YLjRUWl4sa98_ihOSwwDT2TkuAShf26zb3mo-DLcSJ_b7i65qTf1X2RxarmVudXou2XF9M7_v9Hp5dwvmj9HmfcwKN7IZ-E_lEpaJSwKVXSLioSSoSbbQl9QQ0/s320/Slide13.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Forecast likelihood of blizzard conditions and >2"/hour snowfall rates for Saturday morning. <a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/">http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/</a></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVaZ37Q1VZt_uM92PEV1PAxgI7ApJK7eeS18FeqBRF41Z_Kt6MBADRRvnVC5Wb3UXrg8yu5Kmo0Tkc9ukpj-xHqP-ZJeytTspGKEas5lpJZFwcPnbhaEWyzGqQ1inS6gpzurx-THiiIvA/s1600/Slide19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVaZ37Q1VZt_uM92PEV1PAxgI7ApJK7eeS18FeqBRF41Z_Kt6MBADRRvnVC5Wb3UXrg8yu5Kmo0Tkc9ukpj-xHqP-ZJeytTspGKEas5lpJZFwcPnbhaEWyzGqQ1inS6gpzurx-THiiIvA/s320/Slide19.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;">Storm surge forecast by Saturday evening Jan 24. </span><a href="http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/et_surge/et_surge_info.shtml" style="text-align: start;">http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/et_surge/et_surge_info.shtml</a></td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuaHPhpODMKFXrtcVzlqkAmeIvuLAsDbMNqSf2KF0lB8o49X4PkA5_Rj8S6wwprBecAwhX88-8HFIydQvHraStr2xPqGnPn8Rf3w_T_di3DtxJPWWLt6OHOq7DQ0ehhHyKZJT0eXe7afU/s1600/Slide14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuaHPhpODMKFXrtcVzlqkAmeIvuLAsDbMNqSf2KF0lB8o49X4PkA5_Rj8S6wwprBecAwhX88-8HFIydQvHraStr2xPqGnPn8Rf3w_T_di3DtxJPWWLt6OHOq7DQ0ehhHyKZJT0eXe7afU/s400/Slide14.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Wave height forecasts from the Wavewatch model Saturday night <a href="http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-latest-hs-US_eastcoast-">http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-latest-hs-US_eastcoast-</a></td></tr>
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High tide at Barnegat, NJ Saturday afternoon could feature wave spillover into houses and boardwalks while wet wind driven snow plasters the sides of houses and covers roads with a gluey mess where the surge fails to reach at the same time bringing down power lines. Doesn't that sound wonderful?<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhynS2Cg8kIEelmttiyDYrR6JwUgI_TJbfFlSa-mCWKSyVifvMoKOEpKFGYugKXLShQX7MKEcRhQshqzY02QKtAlUs1ke2ktaJHz16LuC1mmruOZzGWCzQDRAsrUcIjTPeRoOu4iOUWdq8/s1600/Slide20.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhynS2Cg8kIEelmttiyDYrR6JwUgI_TJbfFlSa-mCWKSyVifvMoKOEpKFGYugKXLShQX7MKEcRhQshqzY02QKtAlUs1ke2ktaJHz16LuC1mmruOZzGWCzQDRAsrUcIjTPeRoOu4iOUWdq8/s400/Slide20.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Waterlevel forecast from SUNY Stonybrook for Barnegat, NJ <a href="http://stormy.msrc.sunysb.edu/">http://stormy.msrc.sunysb.edu</a></td></tr>
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Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-58862192623728916152015-04-03T08:51:00.000-07:002015-04-03T13:33:08.967-07:00Moore damage survey of March 25, 2015<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">The Moore tornado of March 2015 provided a challenge to damage surveyors to derive an accurate rating. Initially the NWS Norman office gave a preliminary rating of EF1 which led to some heartache by some of the media and yet allowed the survey teams to reassess the tornado strength. Eventually the members of the four survey teams met to discuss whether or not the tornado should be upgraded. There were several areas that were under </span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">consideration for an upgrade and the teams decided that the damage to several structures was enough to assign the tornado an EF2 rating and others that did not make the cut. This post provides some of the thoughts that went into deciding what to rate the tornado based on these structures. Before going on, you may wish to visit the NWS <a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20150325" target="_blank">Moore tornado page </a>for detail on the tornado path and also this <a href="http://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/03/27/the-science-behind-the-oklahoma-and-arkansas-tornadoes-of-march-25-2015/" target="_blank">post</a> about the meteorological aspects of the tornado. I also highly recommend this <a href="http://tornatrix.net/?p=2131" target="_blank">blog entry</a> by Robin Tanamachi for a well written story of what what it was like to be surveying this tornado. This blog post is a more detailed perspective from someone who is a meteorologist trying to understand the point of view of an engineer and a forest ecologist when faced with damage to structures and trees. I try my best but both the engineer and the ecologist have a much more </span>in-depth understanding of the terms I attempt to use and the application to their fields. You may find some edits to this post once they begin to read it. :^)</span></div>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Moore tornado began at 2335 UTC on March 25 near Southwest 119th St. and May Ave. in southwest Oklahoma City and ending near Northeast 36th Ave and Indian Hills Road. As the tornado matured it moved east and then took a turn to the southeast. The track was surveyed by four teams: The first covered the beginning quarter of the track (Chris Spannagle, Steve Mullens, Alyssa Bates and Matt Taraldsen), The second looking over the wide portion of the track just west of I-35 included Doug Speheger, Tiffany Meyer and Robin Tanamachi, The third covered the area from I-35 and east for three miles involved Dan Dawson, Robert Prentice and I, and then a team of one, Greg Stumpf, surveyed the final few miles of the track.</span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_cmgCakdx06kE6Esy9HkoHlLSen7UcQF9IMVvPTGELZT-IQwjx8qaC9wMawgDOMRLCFmQ7xNZftJfUYJiFqY8T37JZQlhSnhTXtNrX1KwumrKKMrqmqY75cQGhzksFckvdtTP5t4qr6E/s1600/Slide26.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_cmgCakdx06kE6Esy9HkoHlLSen7UcQF9IMVvPTGELZT-IQwjx8qaC9wMawgDOMRLCFmQ7xNZftJfUYJiFqY8T37JZQlhSnhTXtNrX1KwumrKKMrqmqY75cQGhzksFckvdtTP5t4qr6E/s1600/Slide26.jpg" height="300" width="400"></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Figure 1. A map of the Moore tornado of March 2015 including damage tracks and also a faded image of the rotation tracks where red indicates azimuthal vorticity of .01 /s or greater. The three boxes represent areas of </span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The first area of interest included the only areas of damage determined to be EF2. These were in the vicinity of the Southgate elementary school area and then a half mile to the southeast. Both team one and team 2 surveyed these areas but Robert Prentice and I did a more detailed survey of the Southgate elementary school (labeled '2' below). The area of interest to me was the house with the highest degree of damage found in the entire tornado track and that is labeled '1' in figure 2.</span><br>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk9mcSboSyCToTtEMqXI9nMLyUsk-O_r0NDbz6FkoXuXOk9cuyLGelWbeNX1YB224wtjISGCupmqsWsYdLbUkbgaq1JHV4JZfy9SV6o406gTWZ2njHOKkMD6E8fokAONwSysKOVp3-lYo/s1600/Slide27.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 2. An intermediate zoomed view of the most intense portion of the tornado with EF scale contours and individual damage points where blue is EF0, green is EF1 and yellow, EF2.</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk9mcSboSyCToTtEMqXI9nMLyUsk-O_r0NDbz6FkoXuXOk9cuyLGelWbeNX1YB224wtjISGCupmqsWsYdLbUkbgaq1JHV4JZfy9SV6o406gTWZ2njHOKkMD6E8fokAONwSysKOVp3-lYo/s1600/Slide27.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">The
Southgate school</span><span style="color: black; vertical-align: baseline;"> area contained the most intense
portion of the tornado with the maximum width and intensity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Much of the tornado was dominated by a
northwesterly inflow jet from the RFD with occasional corner flow vortices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The strongest of these vortices hit just west
of Southgate elementary and then to the southeast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’ll focus on the first one that included
Southgate and a couple houses to the west (labeled 1 and 2 in figure 3).</span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuw7AJcDY3FjKBuuxC0QlOSHnDL5qPXAk6YqwT-KeMADyUhbD3E6MlK4ZWHoNWwekuvuXjXplZaMM-JkDzIHiUcSIJ0wZgRY14TiOmhGkYissTJX_cuTQ-WJ3cnqB4s2q_wAlX-OGQYlo/s1600/Slide28.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 3. The highest zoomed view of the first area of interest including the EF2 house (1) and the Southgate elementary school (2a-c). </td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuw7AJcDY3FjKBuuxC0QlOSHnDL5qPXAk6YqwT-KeMADyUhbD3E6MlK4ZWHoNWwekuvuXjXplZaMM-JkDzIHiUcSIJ0wZgRY14TiOmhGkYissTJX_cuTQ-WJ3cnqB4s2q_wAlX-OGQYlo/s1600/Slide28.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> The<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> house in the images below lost several walls
once the roof was lifted away (figure 4). According
to the teams surveying this house, there were anchor bolts driven every 8’ to a
depth of about 2” along the bottom sill plates into the foundation. Otherwise there were shot nails driven into
the foundation. Not much is known about
the roof-to-wall connections, however the house appears in Google’s </span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">street view</span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
product and some assessment can be made about the shape of the structure (figure 6). While the house was embedded in
shrubs a gable roof can be identified both on the west and south ends. Since the debris in the picture facing NW
appears to have blown eastward, the west gable was likely exposed to the
strongest winds. It is possible the weak
links in the house were the gabled west side of the roof and the garage door
seen in the second picture (figure 5). The expected
wind speed for collapsed exterior walls was 132 mph but team 2 lowered the wind
speed down to the lower bound 113 mph.
Both lie within the EF2 rating. </span>The Cleveland County Assessors site indicates that the house was built in 1963. </span><br>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The next house to the north also
lost its roof though it preserved all of its exterior walls. The surveyors lowered the estimated wind
speed to 107 mph, which is EF1, based on their similar appraisal of weaker than
typical construction quality.</span></span></div>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Not many other DIs exist in close
proximity of these two houses, except for other upstream and downstream
houses. The trees in the pictures were
located outside the core region of the tornado thus leaving only the telephone
poles as potentially representative confirming damage indicators. All of them were replaced after
the tornado, however a piece of one lay against one of the collapsed walls in
the first picture (figure 4). Broken wooden poles
also yields an EF2 rating with an expected wind of 118 mph.</span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaCfHV9lpiLtSsOWKKOeIt_HNGcTIwcIy_ye_iQ6g7cDtTBTJAOS9GnkgMkYuokT5oqWFGW5CieVZ028bEsbE15TJWMIYkNx8qf4b9ofc2TSzvF0oNtYNvST0N7yMb46-BxqSdN8KMPWg/s1600/Slide29.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 4. A photograph of the EF2 house with roof gone and some walls collapsed. <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ_xHHrblJZbsp7UK6d-YZNtchU2hatmysfew0XEcbuSbL8M5_yDcz2fmsTwBDwm-nCxdd47ZYsVSrTj4PqDsB1heGN4LIlSW8zQHJJJGk9xhqWb_JG9C-2_0swkwdc9P8PhGip4mA5Xs/s1600/Slide30.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 5. A photograph of the same house from its west side facing east. The garage door blown inward was below a gabled roof end. The house on the left also lost its entire roof but all walls remained standing.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpqMcUqbpHnfwpJcm4vPV5xNnNtY0N2UuF6l7xii6NfNVemBNS0d_QlI5SGealt6DezlecTfMcraCO2OsyHTFj6B5ViW0Dv1CVhoflUixy2buPftBz750I4y1tAN558q056ZDyJKZhFWI/s1600/Slide31.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 6. A Google street view picture of the house from the same view as the first image of the house above. </td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 12pt;">The
Southgate elementary school, built in 1963, lost part of its roof on the
southwest end of the building. This
image in figure 6 shows some of the debris that landed to the west of the school consisting of
insulation boards and roof membrane. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span></span><br>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinPdqENqnUq1NkwFIhubhAAwbabRVJRrWFXeb-1KHDy8G3w8UOFxdVp1jz4dN9xHZWbTj8HyqC2JKYR-Z5BEE0pGTzgwxPU003NLTJmARO9ssOCzs-wgFqqE_M4T8zYLeGcsTctmZMbTo/s1600/Slide33.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 6. The Southgate elementary school viewed from the west (labeled 2a in figure 3).</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinPdqENqnUq1NkwFIhubhAAwbabRVJRrWFXeb-1KHDy8G3w8UOFxdVp1jz4dN9xHZWbTj8HyqC2JKYR-Z5BEE0pGTzgwxPU003NLTJmARO9ssOCzs-wgFqqE_M4T8zYLeGcsTctmZMbTo/s1600/Slide33.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The
southwest side of the school featured a peculiar roof</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> uplift forming an arch, upon which the
roof soffit was tilted into the vertical and may have subsequently acted as a
vertical load support (figure 7). Whether this
support prevented the collapse of the roof deck is possible though unknown at
this point.</span></span><br>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh0wWQGinDaBF18TvI5YOj_DlpiF9xQQUdqPNrdqrXXFcAtJKFek7P6HQeuMRBpKxcNMKDX666kRwXwX9tm0P3PVQzNBPtqheSgmKcRqSs4R4hNd_OTiW0Ohk_AkVilOe7pMRyjmJY7hQ/s1600/Slide34.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 7. The school viewed from the southwest (labeled 2b in figure 3).</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh0wWQGinDaBF18TvI5YOj_DlpiF9xQQUdqPNrdqrXXFcAtJKFek7P6HQeuMRBpKxcNMKDX666kRwXwX9tm0P3PVQzNBPtqheSgmKcRqSs4R4hNd_OTiW0Ohk_AkVilOe7pMRyjmJY7hQ/s1600/Slide34.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 12pt;">The
interior view of the roof uplift revealed in figure 8 shows an</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
unreinforced CMU block wall. In this
hall the weak link was the grouting one course below what appears to be a very thin bond beam. In the next room to the east the bond beam separated from
the steel web joists. The interior also
shows the soffit that tilted vertically and helped to possibly keep the roof
supported through its studs and plywood sheathing. It’s not known here whether the uplift
pressure was from </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">Bernoulli</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> forces above the roof edge or interior
pressure from breached windows in adjacent classrooms. More likely a combination of the two forces
pushed the roof upward. The roof covering
was still intact in this picture and shows insulation boards attached to the
web joists. I was surprised to see no
metal roof decking. Thus I considered this
roof to be lower than expected quality for a wind speed estimate.</span></span><br>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP2A0UNJd0WN_A45lUhQIkWiyqkuZ7AJDH_GTk46-yV0I2TdL8QBFV26NEjFrNSumDs_IX4PGVoiy7-gingv5DnIUPdeofgqYoRgMlbPc7BsztYSjG7VD-RyjBm48_m9dGT0VQj7Xv1cI/s1600/Slide35.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 8. An interior view of the uplifted roof over the entrance visible in figure 7.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Two
rooms to the northwest a classroom lost all the roof decking, most</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> likely contributing to the debris field
to the west of the school. No metal roof
decking was visible in the debris field (figure 9).
Though here the bond beam appears to be a metal girder, stronger than
the masonry bond beam further southeast, I considered this roof to be lower
than expected quality here as well due to the lack of significant roof decking. I
rated this portion of the school as uplift of roof decking and significant loss
of roof covering (>20%) with an expected wind speed of 100 mph. I consequently lowered the wind speed to 95
mph. This estimate still yields an EF1 rating.</span></span><br>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPWwVY8gPhlnutW_berY_utSl3dXoBhiLRRxiQ3p7dkL48k0VNwKMPdQ0IZy5ESqbmEPx36rhuBwz3AMjGNrW_1WL1GxE3haFZ8tPJtQSDn_1bs8gElB4Hz4Pt5KNoGYGEArah2vAzTC0/s1600/Slide36.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 9. An interior view of a class room on the west side of the school.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPWwVY8gPhlnutW_berY_utSl3dXoBhiLRRxiQ3p7dkL48k0VNwKMPdQ0IZy5ESqbmEPx36rhuBwz3AMjGNrW_1WL1GxE3haFZ8tPJtQSDn_1bs8gElB4Hz4Pt5KNoGYGEArah2vAzTC0/s1600/Slide36.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">A</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> second area just east of I-35 had a
single story house that lost the entire roof (figure 10).
The team in which I was on inspected this house to determine which side
of the EF1/EF2 boundary the house should be rated. Every house in the expected damage track was
rated but only those appearing with colored triangular icons exhibited
damage. Thus the vortex was mostly too
weak to cause damage except to a few houses where a brief damaging </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">subvortex</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> may
have occurred. </span></span><br>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1cGNAATPK0UZjQ2miNaqxI0G0VwH10rsD2fzIeGcZp0GPApMCiunRAQpKoytoAdOLd7hSHF67dp42fYGWeJbUFeBodqdZnJxQBl10YnhWJQu6KdsIwAU3BRxsSCWO2EF9hkYNcxI0ix0/s1600/Slide37.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 10. An overhead map of the area of interest near Broadway Ave. just east of I-35. The inset left points to the same area as the white outlined box in the main map. The circle in the inset refers to the house in question.</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1cGNAATPK0UZjQ2miNaqxI0G0VwH10rsD2fzIeGcZp0GPApMCiunRAQpKoytoAdOLd7hSHF67dp42fYGWeJbUFeBodqdZnJxQBl10YnhWJQu6KdsIwAU3BRxsSCWO2EF9hkYNcxI0ix0/s1600/Slide37.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt;">This
image in figure 11</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> shows the roof debris blown to the south
side of the house consisting of composite shingles, 1by4” decking boards
(likely tongue and groove) and 2X4” rafters spaced 24” apart. Note the adjacent house to the east exhibited
no apparent damage. Adjacent houses to
the west and north also showed no visible damage.</span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOctWph6sQrHsAZK9K4Rf27vTR_8lq5yjce2LpbN3ogfQAhyphenhyphenlyoYyjo3ZSfzvRbG8NMo_Yrp2QScMSq8WUnbxLAs1gdASw8lJ1U0vOamzFcIfCT4ogewA1UOD4WN4HCX4OhpcA3U2g6dY/s1600/Slide38.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 11. A view of house labeled photo 2 in figure 10 facing northwest. Figures 12 and 13 were taken at the label '1a and 1b' in the photograph. </td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOctWph6sQrHsAZK9K4Rf27vTR_8lq5yjce2LpbN3ogfQAhyphenhyphenlyoYyjo3ZSfzvRbG8NMo_Yrp2QScMSq8WUnbxLAs1gdASw8lJ1U0vOamzFcIfCT4ogewA1UOD4WN4HCX4OhpcA3U2g6dY/s1600/Slide38.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 12pt;">This
image on the east side of the house shows the</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> part
of the gable wall top plate and 2 nails (6d?) separated every 18”
approximately (figure 12). </span></span><br>
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"><br></span>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd3iyWtU44844B23a4kfi9qeOpustvk4KDuGi6TwWfqaG4mUjnjsqmrVsMpWEy787V6FVKNT4TSc1bRKMmikw7vxt4qUYbZRhSR41A_4UKgZMyLyzJYzUdhpM7t8uCcjFBB1ZKH0OOaC8/s1600/Slide39.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 12. A view of the top end of the collapsed gable roof including the gable wall top plate. </td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd3iyWtU44844B23a4kfi9qeOpustvk4KDuGi6TwWfqaG4mUjnjsqmrVsMpWEy787V6FVKNT4TSc1bRKMmikw7vxt4qUYbZRhSR41A_4UKgZMyLyzJYzUdhpM7t8uCcjFBB1ZKH0OOaC8/s1600/Slide39.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt;">The
rest of the gable showed</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> two nails between each rafter and
the</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt;">
gable top plate approximately every 18” (figure 13).</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The gable fell nearly intact, however the
orientation of this side was nearly parallel to the strongest wind, as
determined by the direction of debris.</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt;"> It appeared though that the gable was
poorly connected and exhibited no bracing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>While the lack of bracing appears to be common, the</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> lack of a strong connection also
appeared to be less than typical quality construction.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<br>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG9AO9iujGVzCGJckeWmqaPq-W4zWK9W-3OhMDsuNJND2LgC6VqbuGdnxEzFPzEZYGhllOZI0j4QWad1qmoBCHXe2ceT2-DXQLAUWfWXxWB-q7j9q60UohyEDBWFelNE0gbyKzG_ufO7M/s1600/Slide40.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 13. A view of the rest of the gable.</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG9AO9iujGVzCGJckeWmqaPq-W4zWK9W-3OhMDsuNJND2LgC6VqbuGdnxEzFPzEZYGhllOZI0j4QWad1qmoBCHXe2ceT2-DXQLAUWfWXxWB-q7j9q60UohyEDBWFelNE0gbyKzG_ufO7M/s1600/Slide40.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">Perhaps
more significant</span><span style="color: black; vertical-align: baseline;"> than the low construction quality
of the </span><span style="color: black; vertical-align: baseline;">deroofed</span><span style="vertical-align: baseline;">
house was the lack of damage outside that caused by the debris. These surrounding houses to the southwest
showed little to no damage and even the fences remained standing outside the
debris zone (figure 14). The backyard shed was
tipped over but it appeared to have no connection to the foundation other than
gravity. The light poles also were
undisturbed except where the wires intercepted blown debris. The only damage in the immediate vicinity occurred from impacts from debris. </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline;"> the debris from the roof and a car port blew to the southeast, it struck the fences and another house to the southeast resulting in the loss of exterior brick façade and several windows (figure 15). </span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc69870dsCp0lRqh5_Hddw7aQwOaKjkr2cYxWmPzKkSHVRLpSnEmSzUF6VX9z1aoMY5IHB_4fOILACQtoR6awD44xGdnr5zBAtsFPN7AkUrh4GG1yduxDw02c1L6FEbIg1xP9XJPVAZsQ/s1600/Slide41.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 14. A view to the southeast from the house. </td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc69870dsCp0lRqh5_Hddw7aQwOaKjkr2cYxWmPzKkSHVRLpSnEmSzUF6VX9z1aoMY5IHB_4fOILACQtoR6awD44xGdnr5zBAtsFPN7AkUrh4GG1yduxDw02c1L6FEbIg1xP9XJPVAZsQ/s1600/Slide41.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLMd1Sj3SR4YJBuBf4mHySI3cZGL7z1_06Z_fVJcVUJUUiI_OTunNWWdrzT04Z4coKCYp2jOMpWhSt9Ub1flnAngQUOjP_c6iIMgK9iO2Lc09rUmLR8MP_z8v3B47YMZF5H7kNUoNLi8A/s1600/Slide42.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 15. Two panoramas where the top one faces the house from the south end of its backyard. The bottom panorama was taken from the backyard to the southeast of the house labeled '2' in figure 10.<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span><br>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Why</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> did only this house suffer a loss of
roof with the surrounding houses showing negligible damage? One possibility is that this is the only
house to have a car port in the vicinity (figure 16).
So there are two possibilities that affect our decision-making: 1) The
car port debris weakened the roof upon impact causing its failure. 2) A </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">subvortex</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> was
small enough to only affect this house to the exclusion of all others. Both possibilities yield a lower than
expected wind speed because either collateral damage could’ve lifted off the
roof at relatively low wind speeds or the duration of the subvortex over any spot would've led to a less than 3 seconds. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> Consider that the vortex signature on the
WSR-88D was moving between 40 and 45 mph and its diameter of maximum winds
would be only 50 </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">ft</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">, the
maximum winds would not have lasted the standard three seconds defined in the
EF-scale. This vortex would’ve needed
to have spun up immediately northwest of the house because there was no visible
damage to the houses across the street to the northwest. However one house to the southeast (not the
one with collateral damage) suffered loss of roof deck panels, suggesting the </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">subvortex</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> continued on to the east-southeast. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"><br></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">The degree of damage was labeled as
large sections of roof removed, walls remain standing but the three second wind
speed was lowered to roughly 105 mph or EF1.
The most likely scenario of what happened here is relatively weak
connections between the top wall plate and the roof, along with possible impact
from the car port allowed the </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">subvortex</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> to remove the roof from the house.</span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEg9w8CGrEHQqMmUTx4sknXh6kEY3ApQd7jAU-uYiko1Xli42Nc5gGs3-jYZq3CB4r5agsI4s1wBbnlt02l_QGY5FhTvArLYGGea0MT0o8vJ1jw9jZr4B1y3QsV9_fh2st6OYGTMnnVw8/s1600/Slide43.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 16. A pre- and post-tornado view of the deroofed house as viewed from the northeast. The pre-tornado view courtesy of Google Streetmaps.</td></tr>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEg9w8CGrEHQqMmUTx4sknXh6kEY3ApQd7jAU-uYiko1Xli42Nc5gGs3-jYZq3CB4r5agsI4s1wBbnlt02l_QGY5FhTvArLYGGea0MT0o8vJ1jw9jZr4B1y3QsV9_fh2st6OYGTMnnVw8/s1600/Slide43.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 12pt;">The
final damage</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> indicator that straddled the EF1/2
boundary was in east Moore where a 3600 </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">sq</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">ft</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> house was directly hit by the core of
the tornado (figure 17). </span></span><br>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVjpIh0Cnl1TEhu-lgrkAXcWFz_p1ggQmngHTamhgY0YkIZALhdCx_MO25iHOaH68U1CyCQn_Dd6qNjuvlqPWkx9ilYp6hFRgqzYIZDmRUcjqggveDyl2nfH6BEBjkb2vV5nLTVsAYKNo/s1600/Slide44.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 17. An overhead view of the final area under consideration, ShadyCreek St. just north of 19th in east Moore. The inset shows the photo locations in subsequent figures including a wide panorama.</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVjpIh0Cnl1TEhu-lgrkAXcWFz_p1ggQmngHTamhgY0YkIZALhdCx_MO25iHOaH68U1CyCQn_Dd6qNjuvlqPWkx9ilYp6hFRgqzYIZDmRUcjqggveDyl2nfH6BEBjkb2vV5nLTVsAYKNo/s1600/Slide44.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The
house<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"> is a large single story wood framed structure
with a hip roof design, brick and stone veneer and a composition shingle roof
on OSB decking. All the walls were
constructed with 2X6” pine studs and roof rafters. The owner built the house in 2014 and applied
updated buildings codes that he promoted to the Moore City council following the May 20, 2013 EF5 tornado. He mentioned that the house was built with
anchor bolts and metal clips from the sill plate up to the top plate. </span></span><br>
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<span style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The house experienced significant
loss (>20%) of roofing above the complex roof-to-wall connections including
the decking and numerous rafters (figure 18 and 19).
However there was no damage to windows or the garage doors on the north
side of the house. The adjacent garage
shop west of the house lost shingles (DOD=1) and underlay on the south side
while the neighboring house lost some shingles (DOD=1) on its west side (figure 18). </span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-pWvuKRFI70Q5Sqq9xU89uwMg0lcX23r9Gw-Er-Lana0VXwIdyARP_6lwSks04nWZ0IX74ArL_GkZIZaIPXOmsGFahtIPuKa9uqWEN-rcd8wekh2gnG_xL53ErvXq_mrZlXu4g55QpM4/s1600/Slide45.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 18. A view of the three buildings including the house with the damaged roof. Two insets indicate a pre- and post tornado view of the house. </td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXJY-BBICFjGHJcOdTBpzFrWzOJP6l1rr6ijb9bp0IU22f7cPvdc2h9qgJUKFSYXb-StfiCt9ux2moLNX6-R-_wwbCtcJEZpyIGdoOqeF3byBHhyphenhyphen8qm5DjZZ149N0hPw9tEuvAV5kVOJE/s1600/Slide46.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 19. A zoomed in view of the west side of the house.</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXJY-BBICFjGHJcOdTBpzFrWzOJP6l1rr6ijb9bp0IU22f7cPvdc2h9qgJUKFSYXb-StfiCt9ux2moLNX6-R-_wwbCtcJEZpyIGdoOqeF3byBHhyphenhyphen8qm5DjZZ149N0hPw9tEuvAV5kVOJE/s1600/Slide46.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> The tornado passed through the shelterbelt
west of the house</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> felling two large multiple trunk
Elm trees with trunk diameters approaching 2’ (figure 20).
The smaller trees on either side were not affected thus supporting the
premise that larger trees suffer disproportionately from severe winds even in
an </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">unfoliated</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
state. The tree damage indicators in
the EF-scale were difficult to apply when vastly different tree response occurs
within a just a few meters. I used the
standard wind speed of 100 mph based on either an uprooted or snapped tree
trunk and assumed the tornado was of similar strength as at the house. A narrow section of felled trees also could be
seen in the woods opposite the field to the northwest. The narrow width of felled trees strongly
supports the idea of a narrow vortex progressing across the field and over the most affected
house. Due to its small diameter the
buildings on either side escaped with relatively little damage.</span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgWgM1YQ1IoajRzqZxQNVuhxm28tkMPxaB66Mhb0JU2NiOl3vXoLjAkoesvDTuyylVc5G_bjdylWnVH5HQOcksCZXGlnhyphenhyphenmZBk8HTMbOu35-a_cl_n-mrNNMY0O2TYn99NeZ824L0AqxI/s1600/Slide47.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 20. A panorama (labeled 'pano' in figure 17) including the houses and the shelter belt to the west.</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgWgM1YQ1IoajRzqZxQNVuhxm28tkMPxaB66Mhb0JU2NiOl3vXoLjAkoesvDTuyylVc5G_bjdylWnVH5HQOcksCZXGlnhyphenhyphenmZBk8HTMbOu35-a_cl_n-mrNNMY0O2TYn99NeZ824L0AqxI/s1600/Slide47.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 12pt;">With
the</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;"> rafters clipped to the top plate and the
lack of damage in the lower roof, why was the upper roof as damaged as it
was? A closer inspection of the roof
near the ridge board revealed that the OSB decking was stapled to the rafters
at irregular intervals (figure 21). We could not
measure the interval between staples but they were almost certainly spaced at
greater than 6” intervals. Since the
building envelope was not breached it’s likely external pressure forcing
overwhelmed the limited attachments of the roof decking. The standard composition shingles offered no
more than standard resistance to the wind.
This is below the quality of typical construction to give an expected
wind speed and thus the wind speed estimate required to do this damage fell short of an EF2 rating. Had the decking been clipped to the rafters
this roof could’ve survived and EF2 intact and thus similar damage would’ve
resulted in a much larger wind speed estimate. Upon talking to the owner at the time, he admitted that he paid a lot for this flaw in his design. </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; vertical-align: baseline;">I</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; vertical-align: baseline;">f he used the same materials and techniques used to construct the porch overhang in framing the roof, he may have saved himself a lot of grief (see figure 22). </span><br>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihwnw-cEzzKAKoOxSnEcnVyax9W8Mb0DIiqvI45KBNw7Wu5m18v_VaAGBTKZb1cBeADEfl7eHjJCoANr64QyXqJwCnmKoQroXEWU4PKUxeqb7hlSaQGwrT1GE3_N16DCSEDJDqLgg-iwI/s1600/Slide48.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 21. A zoomed view of the roof ridgeline labeled '3,4' in figure 17 showing staples used to fasten OSB roof decking to the rafters. </td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihwnw-cEzzKAKoOxSnEcnVyax9W8Mb0DIiqvI45KBNw7Wu5m18v_VaAGBTKZb1cBeADEfl7eHjJCoANr64QyXqJwCnmKoQroXEWU4PKUxeqb7hlSaQGwrT1GE3_N16DCSEDJDqLgg-iwI/s1600/Slide48.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi07IDy5TSXGshuKYszCwDGHDcK__3Rcw8zkNGr90BWDxBvTHJ0-Mg8unxCuEzphkYcIpyP71x4AVmQAaEdJZQWL_yH2h57xy4nc50232mIp8Ha0aXkIl41IOxAn7v03dBhvvADDiABxPg/s1600/Slide49.jpg" height="300" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 22. A view of the east side of the house.</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi07IDy5TSXGshuKYszCwDGHDcK__3Rcw8zkNGr90BWDxBvTHJ0-Mg8unxCuEzphkYcIpyP71x4AVmQAaEdJZQWL_yH2h57xy4nc50232mIp8Ha0aXkIl41IOxAn7v03dBhvvADDiABxPg/s1600/Slide49.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This survey though is about more than a single rating for the tornado. With the advent of the Damage Assessment Toolkit (or <a href="https://apps.dat.noaa.gov/StormDamage/DamageViewer/" target="_blank">DAT</a>), we were able to create a high resolution survey from which the whole track could be contoured by EF scale rating. The map that Doug Speheger of the NWS office in OUN, and others, created from this survey easily shows how small an area the EF2 winds occupied compared to the whole area that the tornado covered (figure 23). By far the majority of the area covered by this tornado was only EF0 in strength and thus the energy that this tornado exacted upon the landscape was not as big as its EF2 rating suggests it may be. </span><br>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is where high resolution surveys provide their biggest benefit. Now we can see what fraction of the tornado path is occupied by winds of various strengths instead of making assumptions that has been standard practice based on a small sample of well surveyed tornadoes. Now the NWS has the opportunity to vastly increase that sample size and possibility to eliminate the need for more assumptions. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This information is more useful to NWS partners than many of us think. Considering the users that include insurance industry, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, risk analysts, FEMA, state and local governments and more and you may begin to see the value that comes from this level of detail in this NWS product. It doesn't take a team of 12 people for every 12 miles to create them either. It can be streamlined to be done quickly. I'll reserve another post for that. In the meantime, keep them coming!</span><br>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/oun/wxevents/20150325/maps/150325_moore_tornado_prelim.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/oun/wxevents/20150325/maps/150325_moore_tornado_prelim.png" height="164" width="320"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 23. The map of the tornado path contoured by EF scale published by NWS Norman.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Addendums</span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To clarify, the media didn't force a reassessment of the tornado rating. Rather the initial rating of the EF1 allowed the NWS time to make a better assessment while still giving the public a preliminary assessment. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br></span></div>Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-19143917053703931412014-12-28T19:41:00.001-08:002014-12-31T06:52:59.706-08:00Could the Norman, ok snow of 27 Dec 2014 have been anticipated?<div>I'm sure the heavy snow that began early in the morning of December 27, 2014 in Oklahoma was a surprise to many; an event which could've led to more significant impacts than what we saw given that it occurred only 2 days after Christmas .</div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"> Was the snow event really as surprising as implied, and if not was there a way to effectively communicate a seemingly low probability event like this? In this day of exceptional numerical weather prediction, we shouldn't have seen a dry forecast just 12 hours before 3-6" of snow fell along the I44 corridor. So the question is, was there no indication that a snow storm was on its way during the previous evening?</span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje04Wbz_wtY2elGrxHGNcv69J2gnHgtR3rM6f9unEE9MPihK7VaOhauhnX04MrSqmgMnXCD6IRdNnFctX0EHdynH9w97-L_OOkXDgllS9dkUd_yAbMFXWPVYajln5lyuK1usDdnUIkO00/s640/blogger-image--337283187.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje04Wbz_wtY2elGrxHGNcv69J2gnHgtR3rM6f9unEE9MPihK7VaOhauhnX04MrSqmgMnXCD6IRdNnFctX0EHdynH9w97-L_OOkXDgllS9dkUd_yAbMFXWPVYajln5lyuK1usDdnUIkO00/s640/blogger-image--337283187.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A scene typical of central Oklahoma roads. Unknown source. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinQS5pDOC1E7LWv55zJ0dJwrZ6_bJNRfp1j7rnpQ_8gzujnZvB-8lKZK3cBFOJQFLI0Sc6ULkdh9clFSxfE4JIgcX4eiJy2waQl2Lg21B_beelljaRoYx6XC04YHbEtAgbAFHUDKaDMgo/s640/blogger-image-943227271.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinQS5pDOC1E7LWv55zJ0dJwrZ6_bJNRfp1j7rnpQ_8gzujnZvB-8lKZK3cBFOJQFLI0Sc6ULkdh9clFSxfE4JIgcX4eiJy2waQl2Lg21B_beelljaRoYx6XC04YHbEtAgbAFHUDKaDMgo/s640/blogger-image-943227271.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Storm total snow amounts courtesy of NWS Norman. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">When the snow began to fall in thin bands as the radar image showed it appeared that an elevated frontal circulation was possibly involved. The 700 mb frontogenesis analysis in the SPC meso analysis plot helps support the idea, with the best values nicely lined up parallel to the snow bands observed by radar. This is important because the model guidance should have a similar signature in the forecasts. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFjuh4peM9FcNopRnMRlxXVDaNAfW8ts9D7AOoIH56vvvmfel-_WgY8qWGFoA1BYn4WJc63VeM2BJNJhbNrXvWomUuHvP7YZiCydVCwEJhxSGO2nhiZGFQsHUa2bwqXolihknU7-flZ0A/s640/blogger-image-1598644278.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFjuh4peM9FcNopRnMRlxXVDaNAfW8ts9D7AOoIH56vvvmfel-_WgY8qWGFoA1BYn4WJc63VeM2BJNJhbNrXvWomUuHvP7YZiCydVCwEJhxSGO2nhiZGFQsHUa2bwqXolihknU7-flZ0A/s640/blogger-image-1598644278.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIz52_TwRqS09uUXViwAANEuWUw7iIs_hV4AOUDxDQtoJmcQv5Hz7Ch5hDFeYlXAR9zpdVkH3DC5CM1Bqs1ZA3neCQPGmLpLKNkwWe-z4ztJmEm6f5UDRVbIgRajmRQ_FLJc3hnbG0iyk/s640/blogger-image-1473606576.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIz52_TwRqS09uUXViwAANEuWUw7iIs_hV4AOUDxDQtoJmcQv5Hz7Ch5hDFeYlXAR9zpdVkH3DC5CM1Bqs1ZA3neCQPGmLpLKNkwWe-z4ztJmEm6f5UDRVbIgRajmRQ_FLJc3hnbG0iyk/s640/blogger-image-1473606576.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Frontogenesis at 700 mb in purple contours at 18 z from SPC. </div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The NAM forecast model, however, didn't show much of any precipitation from the previous evenings run. What it did show in the Texas panhandle, however, appeared to be aligned in a similar direction as the frontal bands observed the next morning. But the NAM was as dry over central Oklahoma as the forecasts. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxpjXCWwnlzVMpSdqff1FJhAHNxBRXtxzFuQSy97A_Wko74uCNZmohKE4gSw7ItSGQCkDOOmzDYAgDDagX59S1NhFdD0r1_hafnnezbaQQAVnvH8LQTJs3YrcJEx4XSR6wjaWMCT78qik/s640/blogger-image-1506024348.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxpjXCWwnlzVMpSdqff1FJhAHNxBRXtxzFuQSy97A_Wko74uCNZmohKE4gSw7ItSGQCkDOOmzDYAgDDagX59S1NhFdD0r1_hafnnezbaQQAVnvH8LQTJs3YrcJEx4XSR6wjaWMCT78qik/s640/blogger-image-1506024348.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The NAM 15 hr forecast valid Dec 27 of 3 hour precipitation courtesy College of Dupage</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The GFS evening model run, however, showed a slightly wetter pattern as a band of three hour precipitation accumulation appeared in roughly the same orientation and placement as was observed. The amounts were not quite up to the observed values but it's orientation gave a clue that it was on the right track that something may have fallen out of the frontal circulation aloft and that possibly an inch of snow may fall by late morning the next day. The only problem was that this GFS forecast was available only after the evening news cycle was completed, thereby limiting its usefulness for planning in the evening before the event. Was there information in the guidance that could've been made a bit earlier?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDgfHOhdYclf0q5hZ5c3TtQMOecChjSLLb0LsMhPQoK27MgiUnp-cWjo4Nxu_lwaAP1el6xAK8bKDMvyCoI07cK_6R3zWNDUmzRNkH5GqUQfQAnBXU-63h2r2c8gFj8nq4p8U8GNXfaGE/s640/blogger-image-1363567530.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDgfHOhdYclf0q5hZ5c3TtQMOecChjSLLb0LsMhPQoK27MgiUnp-cWjo4Nxu_lwaAP1el6xAK8bKDMvyCoI07cK_6R3zWNDUmzRNkH5GqUQfQAnBXU-63h2r2c8gFj8nq4p8U8GNXfaGE/s640/blogger-image-1363567530.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Same as above except for the GFS. </div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Well, possibly. In the afternoon before the snow day the short range ensemble forecast system, or SREF, showed that a several of its 15 runs forecast over one inch of snow in a corridor quite similar to the bands observed the next day. The probability of at least one inch of snow was only up to 20% in the college of du page model output but the SPC plume diagram valid for Norman showed that the several runs depicting the snow were very similar in timing and amounts. At least this output should give one pause that something may happen. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTTiL3QnDByBvyNFrbisxmDYzrGUcU53lHu9Hs6SVi2nPDwM3CQBHD-CFsMMYVj8i_HIphoyeF-PVjRvmNjXm79Ie5x71EBSbvFHutg4JztQprKposFGIF3WCF2j06UF39fcel-lyEmdc/s640/blogger-image-874569408.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTTiL3QnDByBvyNFrbisxmDYzrGUcU53lHu9Hs6SVi2nPDwM3CQBHD-CFsMMYVj8i_HIphoyeF-PVjRvmNjXm79Ie5x71EBSbvFHutg4JztQprKposFGIF3WCF2j06UF39fcel-lyEmdc/s640/blogger-image-874569408.jpg"></a></div>The SREF probability of 12 hour snow exceeding 1" valid 18z Dec 27 courtesy of the College of Dupage. </div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiJwb28FyU3ZcQ3eYsNVtS-6mrBOsAoH6QWQBS3_uFqR5nPGtnCtjqeXL87x0bgbSjPM4zXSFYvMDY3iUAZzFPl_YxkscJvhuqt4JOtX8rHN-GSZWgJTV-bgqalmMiL4WQ-JLifxt0Vmg/s640/blogger-image--1517702053.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiJwb28FyU3ZcQ3eYsNVtS-6mrBOsAoH6QWQBS3_uFqR5nPGtnCtjqeXL87x0bgbSjPM4zXSFYvMDY3iUAZzFPl_YxkscJvhuqt4JOtX8rHN-GSZWgJTV-bgqalmMiL4WQ-JLifxt0Vmg/s640/blogger-image--1517702053.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">An SREF plume diagram of snow fall for Norman, OK from 21z Dec 26 courtesy of SPC. </div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">By 9:30 pm the evening before, three successive runs of the HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model were available that showed an axis of snowfall accumulation approaching or exceeding 1" right over the I44 corridor into the OKC metro area. The hourly model runs allows its users to assess the consistency of its forecast. When three runs in a row showed a similar forecast then the likelihood of accumulating snow may not have been so improbable. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgycFGdLjHDgPYKHqOO7D5nttfBtMucoyrcSRnCIAsfZHYJR_ME3xV1_jwEtnSAasUPMJiIDUFWkg3KtkFoRLXvM9bDYeyKKb2sOG-wJPkZysveTxN-RPwp2nZffzZdX0K_7FTzkUy5Efo/s640/blogger-image-76858841.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgycFGdLjHDgPYKHqOO7D5nttfBtMucoyrcSRnCIAsfZHYJR_ME3xV1_jwEtnSAasUPMJiIDUFWkg3KtkFoRLXvM9bDYeyKKb2sOG-wJPkZysveTxN-RPwp2nZffzZdX0K_7FTzkUy5Efo/s640/blogger-image-76858841.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrushJigxotmOPTyzgvM-SnuMhAFqUz9yIIuS-Uf6z0juwRL3avSuPUBzsSBcIO7uheHum72n-NZqGgIkZwZ8swGIU_OIj33fWAc8WIutqLD51BOTG_XJDktcaW5I1U0Ka7rSKNeib1KA/s640/blogger-image--708408515.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrushJigxotmOPTyzgvM-SnuMhAFqUz9yIIuS-Uf6z0juwRL3avSuPUBzsSBcIO7uheHum72n-NZqGgIkZwZ8swGIU_OIj33fWAc8WIutqLD51BOTG_XJDktcaW5I1U0Ka7rSKNeib1KA/s640/blogger-image--708408515.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The HRRR total snowfall at forecast hour 15 for the 23 z Dec 26 and 01 z Dec 27 runs courtesy of NOAA/GSD. </div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">So the big question of the evening was whether or not the guidance provided enough confidence to forecasters to go with some kind of winter weather warning. In the NWS, forecasters are provided with a set of guidelines on when to issue winter storm watches, warnings and winter weather advisories. The NWS could've issued a winter storm watch, however they would need a 50% chance that winter precipitation would actually fall and accumulate to create hazardous travel conditions (see the directives at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005013curr.pdf). However we could debate for a long time whether or not there was a 50% chance based on the available guidance. One forecaster may consider that there needs to be a 50% chance that a winter storm warning criterion snowfall occur while another may not. I believe no one would argue that the chances of 4" or more accumulation was nowhere near that 50% value. Yet the directives suggest that a local forecast office has great latitude in determining the criteria for issuing a winter storm watch. Having snow falling enough to cover roads at rush hour would certainly be a good reason to consider sliding the threshold downward. But this is a judgement call and the uncertainty in the guidance is enough that I can understand a forecaster decision not to issue a winter storm watch. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">No watch was issued for this event,<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"> but perhaps because a forecaster considered the chances of winter weather to be at 20 or 30%. With those low, but not negligible odds, What kind of message did a forecaster have available to advise the public? A hazardous weather outlook could've been issued. However those kinds of products are usually reserved in the day 3-7 lead times. A special weather statement could've been issued since its format provides enough flexibility to provide a variety of information. Perhaps then the statement could've been backed up by reposting to newer avenues of communication such as online briefings, social media and nwschat. Typically these avenues are reserved for winter events with a higher confidence forecast. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">Communicating a heads-up about low probability events is commonplace in convectively induced severe weather events but not for winter weather situations. Yet in the plains states, and other places, high impact events are often dominated by mesoscale processes (eg. Frontal bands, cold frontal squall lines), as this event demonstrated. These events are going to be more difficult to forecast, and therefore, lower confidence of occurring as anticipated for any one spot, much like summer convection. Thus the communication required to warn for the potential impacts have to be different than the synoptically dominated snow storms for which the traditional avenues of communication are intended. The challenge is when and what to communicate with these lower probability but potentially significant events. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div>Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-33886177185723543642014-04-19T18:50:00.001-07:002014-04-20T18:37:44.673-07:00Learning moments from the May 2013 Oklahoma tornadoes<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I put together a presentation for my Alma Mater, SUNY Oswego back in December of 2013 about what learning moments came to the foreground from the tornadoes earlier in the year during May. These tornadoes differed from just about all other outbreaks in that the same metropolitan area was struck on multiple different days. The Moore 2013 tornado, being the third violent tornado to strike that city in the past 15 years, exacerbated the sense of fear from these storms, and also set the stage for an unprecedented public reaction to yet another large tornado threatening the metro just days later. The closest analog to this kind of severe weather would be the multiple tornado outbreaks of May 2003 from Missouri to Oklahoma. What I present is somewhat biased in that it focuses on my worldview, however I've been influenced by many discussions about the May tornadoes and thus I've changed my view, consciously and otherwise. Many of these learning moments have been repeated with earlier major tornadoes in other parts of the country, and even here in Oklahoma from years past. Perhaps, however, with the tornadoes of 2013, and the heightened focus on the risk management of the residents in this state, this tornado outbreak helped focus these topics like a laser in our discussions. I'll reflect some of these in this series of pictures with captions taken from my presentation.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFelYViVxkgNIt_Is3SssCEDhKP6N1uNZh2xNFUH0XgZgMKdMFeBiGwGZiY47Bl8tsWXqxhLxpPCiGc5usykVkbSY2Ftl8XGCeoMOpccwPXJ3m5O1edOFL2lCC1Rg_b4CrTVuwKZs3RgY/s1600/Slide02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFelYViVxkgNIt_Is3SssCEDhKP6N1uNZh2xNFUH0XgZgMKdMFeBiGwGZiY47Bl8tsWXqxhLxpPCiGc5usykVkbSY2Ftl8XGCeoMOpccwPXJ3m5O1edOFL2lCC1Rg_b4CrTVuwKZs3RgY/s1600/Slide02.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">Yes, central Oklahoma suffered in 2013. However, so many tornadoes in close proximity to a large meteorological center provides a great opportunity to learn from these disasters. Not everything learned is in this talk, but hopefully some essence of what is learned can be had from these pictures to follow.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-1jCupAoc-SMZofhs_8wUtRVxpBlxKQjRCSF3v07CRvgXZgvXfWLrgr7fNgVOsUwocf7EnU4il8fZTedsNMJcbFL151sl38Kp62tsV6hjw88KmWZFxCdqf8_EUMQLNMbTqfUil77uT7o/s1600/Slide03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-1jCupAoc-SMZofhs_8wUtRVxpBlxKQjRCSF3v07CRvgXZgvXfWLrgr7fNgVOsUwocf7EnU4il8fZTedsNMJcbFL151sl38Kp62tsV6hjw88KmWZFxCdqf8_EUMQLNMbTqfUil77uT7o/s1600/Slide03.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbs7IxRG1LVrF9O5lWX3i_MASxRBUVedoAPzgkpuEW77bcyRFIzTg7XZke9rUU8dclGZ_jw2XqwUD00_pWDEl4LSmIExfUuTvGNme5sdkOq9BS_TaIbPHTZAeQOW8yGEfLvxDISlUGuKU/s1600/Slide04.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbs7IxRG1LVrF9O5lWX3i_MASxRBUVedoAPzgkpuEW77bcyRFIzTg7XZke9rUU8dclGZ_jw2XqwUD00_pWDEl4LSmIExfUuTvGNme5sdkOq9BS_TaIbPHTZAeQOW8yGEfLvxDISlUGuKU/s1600/Slide04.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">This is an animated slide in the presentation highlighting the quality of forecasting has improved remarkably over the past years. When you see this level of risk where you live, take it very seriously.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCvz4N6WVJKJSDAiTQXvrPTnXpDOorChunhX1BWrPDZ-FtENXPFSazSK2OFWXUnt6GxPupfsE-4nU9Q5ctVrsfLfQAJXOeBQtsPZ_Kbx1yP2esk1ndTLks92F5U1GH2cNRClLtEF-VbdE/s1600/Slide05.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCvz4N6WVJKJSDAiTQXvrPTnXpDOorChunhX1BWrPDZ-FtENXPFSazSK2OFWXUnt6GxPupfsE-4nU9Q5ctVrsfLfQAJXOeBQtsPZ_Kbx1yP2esk1ndTLks92F5U1GH2cNRClLtEF-VbdE/s1600/Slide05.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption">The model guidance also is improving dramatically. Perhaps this forecast is a little too good to be true. That a 23 hour forecast from a convection allowing model can nail a supercell to within 3 mi of it actually occurring is incredible.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEIl9q6HZNJ8OikvoeVjmn8m95wOQcliPra_qJubls3k5F5SD-3OB14zWNXb5JcZQYd6e4YF-ERQjB8sk6KES2hBzcHVd6t_bFPSAp-b2bKtQFJhU9ym_R06RnrbKGNsXToAXaHilZdlo/s1600/Slide06.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEIl9q6HZNJ8OikvoeVjmn8m95wOQcliPra_qJubls3k5F5SD-3OB14zWNXb5JcZQYd6e4YF-ERQjB8sk6KES2hBzcHVd6t_bFPSAp-b2bKtQFJhU9ym_R06RnrbKGNsXToAXaHilZdlo/s1600/Slide06.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is the storm that was forecast so well, I could've camped on Lake Thunderbird to wait for the tornado. If only I could depend on that more than once in a full moon.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHaJ19vjFEgFYy9WBMP31QyHzcASF0_ESPf8N2f3SFXcQddY0ZtqFD8-yRctrzz6qG9aShvZIIDh44gdjag9Game5B1DDsdLawv8x6oh7OnaJFRGvo1E01LJsZRNRpBmS9uFSngqeTzmk/s1600/Slide07.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHaJ19vjFEgFYy9WBMP31QyHzcASF0_ESPf8N2f3SFXcQddY0ZtqFD8-yRctrzz6qG9aShvZIIDh44gdjag9Game5B1DDsdLawv8x6oh7OnaJFRGvo1E01LJsZRNRpBmS9uFSngqeTzmk/s1600/Slide07.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />More typically convection allowing models yield usable forecasts with several hours to half a day lead time. Ensemble model systems can be helpful in determining the mode of severe weather.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNVf51aKHLNYXltJ0dA1aTrxfYF0UnXvfILUdDwq5MOUODD5iqqoKZaTEp2oOCBal9fri-Gx2NW6tkmMd2b5sJX4av5852ji4Hx2gdFXDW4itS3FtTx5VhTe9CbMP8GbfcS2zIt9Ssuhc/s1600/Slide08.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNVf51aKHLNYXltJ0dA1aTrxfYF0UnXvfILUdDwq5MOUODD5iqqoKZaTEp2oOCBal9fri-Gx2NW6tkmMd2b5sJX4av5852ji4Hx2gdFXDW4itS3FtTx5VhTe9CbMP8GbfcS2zIt9Ssuhc/s1600/Slide08.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That kind of guidance is valuable in helping the SPC issue not just tornado vs. severe watches, but what level of confidence to apply to each type. I put this slide in to show that not all tornado watches are equal. There is a lot of information about the likelihood of weak and strong tornadoes posted on the SPC web page. They were maxed out on the El Reno tornado day.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGWNuxBr6UxX5ouX6aMG0avW5U4rD5nMSZcYtHwuzL2QECfVlh9FcjmOyA9EmFzSryun-KuD-Rhz6SuXEKJ-N8AbfBhVENGk61yCX1B-nonXJenC_z22WaRKR_cFWc2qO96Ox_5Cwb_zA/s1600/Slide09.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGWNuxBr6UxX5ouX6aMG0avW5U4rD5nMSZcYtHwuzL2QECfVlh9FcjmOyA9EmFzSryun-KuD-Rhz6SuXEKJ-N8AbfBhVENGk61yCX1B-nonXJenC_z22WaRKR_cFWc2qO96Ox_5Cwb_zA/s1600/Slide09.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The NWS and the DOT worked together to make sure anyone passing under this, and other signs, knew of the impending severe weather. This message wouldn't be here without the collaborative forecasting done between the SPC and the local forecast offices in addition to the major NWS stakeholders. Note that the sign focuses on expected time of highest threat.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3AEhow665UAM_-9t1uIUEW7JNXRmwwfJ8j9NxNInDuneQ8VUN-2JFtRVK9P89DZU6rSsCkeB2c3bsw7bQ8ee0C_W14oCbe6XumXzT2ZQPzMmFrAqPEGOB6dPeoLIF9NKzLDdlvhgU7_g/s1600/Slide10.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3AEhow665UAM_-9t1uIUEW7JNXRmwwfJ8j9NxNInDuneQ8VUN-2JFtRVK9P89DZU6rSsCkeB2c3bsw7bQ8ee0C_W14oCbe6XumXzT2ZQPzMmFrAqPEGOB6dPeoLIF9NKzLDdlvhgU7_g/s1600/Slide10.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />The tweet has the same expected time of danger as the highway sign. This kind of messaging consistency is highly desirable.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg47zRneFlaSVKJLu-E-WkS6iffYFaqJutGForBvTXPlDuMsY9nx-5YPKArp-ZPLnAismTxVC5lANDTtLu2HUc3sPJ181CGb5N73of5zG-9OgJK2Uv2K0ZVNwyGhiGDn-dKTSHuslAUad8/s1600/Slide11.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg47zRneFlaSVKJLu-E-WkS6iffYFaqJutGForBvTXPlDuMsY9nx-5YPKArp-ZPLnAismTxVC5lANDTtLu2HUc3sPJ181CGb5N73of5zG-9OgJK2Uv2K0ZVNwyGhiGDn-dKTSHuslAUad8/s1600/Slide11.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />The NWS provided advice when watches were issued.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs4JixNvwAsFUY6B2u4D5eKFYIEe3dMskRisUNLfKcEBpypbg3Nwky8p86vPL6nhX-NEmxea0wv565SOrN920pq1ZzUvEkpxlcRqJ89VB2v0fyxhr5XzhAbIZLqqsSrHp9vakD2RffsJI/s1600/Slide12.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs4JixNvwAsFUY6B2u4D5eKFYIEe3dMskRisUNLfKcEBpypbg3Nwky8p86vPL6nhX-NEmxea0wv565SOrN920pq1ZzUvEkpxlcRqJ89VB2v0fyxhr5XzhAbIZLqqsSrHp9vakD2RffsJI/s1600/Slide12.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Note this advice strongly encouraged people to travel with a destination in mind well before the warnings came out.</span></span></td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc7flE_7I86_LHFVtBuUmO7tCWO72MbBQU5DuioajRssEbRdUCvOdrkdRcjlah7HP25dNk2kxzM-6ob_XPtPka-AaZAnXr9Nxlb3Z2LqQqjMFb1S1GI32IOeSS7HvosCCH_O54q8-Hu7A/s1600/Slide13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc7flE_7I86_LHFVtBuUmO7tCWO72MbBQU5DuioajRssEbRdUCvOdrkdRcjlah7HP25dNk2kxzM-6ob_XPtPka-AaZAnXr9Nxlb3Z2LqQqjMFb1S1GI32IOeSS7HvosCCH_O54q8-Hu7A/s1600/Slide13.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYdazhUM4M7ufDqUNqex68A1k83WfViS1n34XsiOayifxoUkFlvRYI4QjNGs_Xc2zw8UMnVaIaMr4aWVa7AAs76U6aIWlUWWofbMy5dHHsMzEXa8xKMi5gNvLUAwJ5NOb1W2877i2fNVM/s1600/Slide14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYdazhUM4M7ufDqUNqex68A1k83WfViS1n34XsiOayifxoUkFlvRYI4QjNGs_Xc2zw8UMnVaIaMr4aWVa7AAs76U6aIWlUWWofbMy5dHHsMzEXa8xKMi5gNvLUAwJ5NOb1W2877i2fNVM/s1600/Slide14.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />And when the warning goes out, the NWS provided this advice. There is nothing in the advice at this late hour that discusses driving somewhere.</span></span></td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqzEsHcsnt8_AS6D7szf9PKx1A_yzKT1JbqZmEV4XYnSkqeXGqozpAB9w7axXa_d4Le-Rw2KYf6zzWkZ7GgQ24flbrNGQWm9hjsTYgLksWvk1mYHE-BNVnReOjq7ALWiu1Dumwb5foQzU/s1600/Slide15.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqzEsHcsnt8_AS6D7szf9PKx1A_yzKT1JbqZmEV4XYnSkqeXGqozpAB9w7axXa_d4Le-Rw2KYf6zzWkZ7GgQ24flbrNGQWm9hjsTYgLksWvk1mYHE-BNVnReOjq7ALWiu1Dumwb5foQzU/s1600/Slide15.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8uMPXiJnQlz6UCn-lc8zDZZH5geCtwg0SL7Wabb6XUW5vvrNKJDhjQjXoazopKTIFYCWd-rnuk9LmNPHHD5Xje0uHxP2RsFuy2iCKI8vuICJG8vaWvpENh8cDQGat3I-3XMoT3Dbjc5w/s1600/Slide16.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8uMPXiJnQlz6UCn-lc8zDZZH5geCtwg0SL7Wabb6XUW5vvrNKJDhjQjXoazopKTIFYCWd-rnuk9LmNPHHD5Xje0uHxP2RsFuy2iCKI8vuICJG8vaWvpENh8cDQGat3I-3XMoT3Dbjc5w/s1600/Slide16.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What was the reaction on the El Reno day? Not what was desired.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhngdn677nqYhgpGUR-DX2icj3KzJR_-Nw1ANMoSfPnolcq8qTG24fsdQiDZZx-8N_QuaEmUnLS8_Iwvb_53ELNqiiuitT3ZdF7GhYVDKYXZBDgb_fJ_qqXE5iDSv9FgxBT5QwsAaIkFx4/s1600/Slide17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhngdn677nqYhgpGUR-DX2icj3KzJR_-Nw1ANMoSfPnolcq8qTG24fsdQiDZZx-8N_QuaEmUnLS8_Iwvb_53ELNqiiuitT3ZdF7GhYVDKYXZBDgb_fJ_qqXE5iDSv9FgxBT5QwsAaIkFx4/s1600/Slide17.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Thousands of people took flight. Here are multiple reasons that resulted in this mass short-fused migration. I note the TV broadcasts were not solely at fault. It was also the heightened anxiety from the Moore tornado and the OKC culture, corrupted over years of fears that residents would not survive in their homes without going underground.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVZkuZ0LID8P-dvy0HsvsO2U_mf4vTgKefOKC2X0zTykJ8bHwWlJlrG5EIbSPEZfREtZMz580ILS4BDVH8Ia_CCsKqqvZqWEwy0Gg2PsxuZtt45xjsWYkPT_qHZH5s87o9Q9BQTNRGY9c/s1600/Slide18.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVZkuZ0LID8P-dvy0HsvsO2U_mf4vTgKefOKC2X0zTykJ8bHwWlJlrG5EIbSPEZfREtZMz580ILS4BDVH8Ia_CCsKqqvZqWEwy0Gg2PsxuZtt45xjsWYkPT_qHZH5s87o9Q9BQTNRGY9c/s1600/Slide18.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The panic was strong enough to overwhelm many driver's sense of responsible driving leading to this self-organized contraflow. However, the word 'organized' may not be the best term to apply when the underlying forces are caused by panic.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvBBcn8usUGzsaGAYe1DVk0PuI6RRnqqkde0ovd1htVWjgqwd27wyaU5J2fbNL8h4hmiay70Pt4zvM2Q46XjRG3drc3OzxKQiudCVudCieRLQ3f5UFrWAg7sTyYwPJOHfEStdKCxN2ITA/s1600/Slide19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvBBcn8usUGzsaGAYe1DVk0PuI6RRnqqkde0ovd1htVWjgqwd27wyaU5J2fbNL8h4hmiay70Pt4zvM2Q46XjRG3drc3OzxKQiudCVudCieRLQ3f5UFrWAg7sTyYwPJOHfEStdKCxN2ITA/s1600/Slide19.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Almost forgotten amongst the populace was the flash flooding as numerous storms trained over the metro area after the lead El Reno tornado producing storm. The flooding potential was not a surprise, however. Numerical model guidance and forecasters highlighted the potential for flood producing rains and a flash flood watch was issued. In the Oklahoma culture, the tornado threat provokes images of fear leaving the flash flood threat in the dust of the collective conscience.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhalswjw5sE4tryzlssg8hAjQEl3lbdvuw5KYWIvoEYuE5klNNbRGqm3qfiEnFSKdOSz-UhB3nF55UjLHjxBUAbojDiSh_22a_a8mcIYf4jN9tFz5QajgjFyh-aEi0DlJfXgFeu3vg0PpA/s1600/Slide21.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhalswjw5sE4tryzlssg8hAjQEl3lbdvuw5KYWIvoEYuE5klNNbRGqm3qfiEnFSKdOSz-UhB3nF55UjLHjxBUAbojDiSh_22a_a8mcIYf4jN9tFz5QajgjFyh-aEi0DlJfXgFeu3vg0PpA/s1600/Slide21.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Significant casualties occurred as a result of people fleeing from the tornado threat and into flood zones. Some people lost their lives when they hid in a drainage tunnel. </span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiMn0oPvZ2QqmOUTpJ0HJDWxE6q3rbFACaCDIFe_TMDxJqeVYVg8G520IQAM6_krheyMlMn7m4vRIqCjyZZNGt_MrWFFU-5iD-ggLZmPMI_GZWOOub9rfXh3eGuSSL2PdcyD0z4fFc9WA/s1600/Slide22.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiMn0oPvZ2QqmOUTpJ0HJDWxE6q3rbFACaCDIFe_TMDxJqeVYVg8G520IQAM6_krheyMlMn7m4vRIqCjyZZNGt_MrWFFU-5iD-ggLZmPMI_GZWOOub9rfXh3eGuSSL2PdcyD0z4fFc9WA/s1600/Slide22.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />What was the problem? It was the inconsistency of the messaging amongst members of the integrated warning team. This problem keeps being cited amongst various reports like the Joplin tornado report by the NIST or the NWS Service assessment from the 2011 tornadoes. Of all the places where consistent messaging should be most desired, it should be in the Oklahoma City area.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPBmTm4IOs3D7FNofUZ54AUihGH4ItegK1acC6YKlEDWGH6oXw748qE4stY3AA9Q83qzvY-cA2I2owpVmJTORE-2DQGrZlE2ZD81TNvzKwzGhd1zK_Tp9Bu8nqu2iVNnwr4afGtFwI39Y/s1600/Slide23.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPBmTm4IOs3D7FNofUZ54AUihGH4ItegK1acC6YKlEDWGH6oXw748qE4stY3AA9Q83qzvY-cA2I2owpVmJTORE-2DQGrZlE2ZD81TNvzKwzGhd1zK_Tp9Bu8nqu2iVNnwr4afGtFwI39Y/s1600/Slide23.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The mass evacuation on May 31 was not solely the responsibility of the media's messaging. The stage was already set by the sense of dread so dramatically acquired after the May 20 tornado hit Moore. NWS service assessment findings indicated many of those that evacuated felt compelled to leave, and yet then regretted that decision. Will that regret result in more appropriate reactions to a tornado warning in the future? Perhaps, or perhaps not.</span></td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyqxk_nEmyON0AkaKOT0pPuy6krjeMGfY1j-JebSJOxw6j5Rdw8K6rPiA00X4h5hRKHxU6Rfj0gNprSK8f_g0zsrAjUdUciz989XmrirxAq0ny54_HKl2AP18Fjkq6BNhH-kNW6ld3PHQ/s1600/Slide24.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyqxk_nEmyON0AkaKOT0pPuy6krjeMGfY1j-JebSJOxw6j5Rdw8K6rPiA00X4h5hRKHxU6Rfj0gNprSK8f_g0zsrAjUdUciz989XmrirxAq0ny54_HKl2AP18Fjkq6BNhH-kNW6ld3PHQ/s1600/Slide24.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7DqGyerrVZBzp0nQCz3pNS0ONkp8Z8b1yPsjWP1ulb_Z7H-WiGcuH_MJtFo0E4F5DdDobbBO6XsGDWcsP6AE7qoTn1KpfhDEV8qXVKAU5b3vaMQAO7cS4eXhKF9xvuvotodqThahyphenhyphenLEU/s1600/Slide25.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7DqGyerrVZBzp0nQCz3pNS0ONkp8Z8b1yPsjWP1ulb_Z7H-WiGcuH_MJtFo0E4F5DdDobbBO6XsGDWcsP6AE7qoTn1KpfhDEV8qXVKAU5b3vaMQAO7cS4eXhKF9xvuvotodqThahyphenhyphenLEU/s1600/Slide25.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />This is a complicated graphic but it's so revealing. Someone's risk is a function of his/her vulnerability and the intensity of the event that could potentially make him/her vulnerable. Consider that someone is much more vulnerable at a camp site, or in a small boat vs. an office building or a large ship. Certainly someone in a large building need not worry too much about a severe thunderstorm warning but someone in a tent should be understandably concerned. People need to understand their own risk management. Not the NWS, nor anyone else can do it for them because they vary so much. Instead warnings are issued with single threshold that cuts across a wide spectrum of people's vulnerability. They do the best they can but it won't be enough to account for everyone's vulnerability. But technology can help. Perhaps smartphone tools will come about to help interpret someone's risk management for them. Some tools are already in development, as I understand now.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI5mf4gWhPPVKuDWOzHahPpaE7SyxfgllLsrKKdvmVuasr6Gjcfsjph8Z8mf3431Wg2eVsSHgPyOK6fdbszOG4JcD2diySoCx7wRPQ79RZbL11NhRlIE4nXSetHm3qsJYcgXEMrJGpnbg/s1600/Slide26.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI5mf4gWhPPVKuDWOzHahPpaE7SyxfgllLsrKKdvmVuasr6Gjcfsjph8Z8mf3431Wg2eVsSHgPyOK6fdbszOG4JcD2diySoCx7wRPQ79RZbL11NhRlIE4nXSetHm3qsJYcgXEMrJGpnbg/s1600/Slide26.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />A big part of risk management is deciding what needs to be done with X amount of lead time, one of the major determinants of vulnerability. When residents had plenty of time, a larger proportion of them decided to flee. Others decided they had time to gather important belongings, and get more information.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXMhjkOED-5P8nfttRB5oEj0ssTk8EGnY_HUqTdQi4qSR4c-uGpMKvRjwD8AOcQ3N29PWOhUXfsqfzkFFQ_ZTqEM7n3DGvPs-s30rgzJfR4KixGbT0Wp7qr4Bq8wCVvA9qXZl-IxOwCZU/s1600/Slide27.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXMhjkOED-5P8nfttRB5oEj0ssTk8EGnY_HUqTdQi4qSR4c-uGpMKvRjwD8AOcQ3N29PWOhUXfsqfzkFFQ_ZTqEM7n3DGvPs-s30rgzJfR4KixGbT0Wp7qr4Bq8wCVvA9qXZl-IxOwCZU/s1600/Slide27.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Fleeing by vehicle during a warning may seem like good risk management but I doubt many people made any adjustments to their sense of allowable time when everyone wanted to flee. I'm confident that panic resulted in many drivers once they felt like they were taking too much time relative to their perceived sense of acceptable lead time. And they would be right should the storm have produced another large tornado in the metro.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFiA6kT6yY0-efxJPyn-0CtXIiZpDN28_6kP6FM4PT3eLeU8l6VDsTqCxYoOrNySGlIMDH0TsZxTSPhc8n6FL_h7399HngH8GMcYChQJYka9JL_4P8LRT0k7cOfzdlyWFtwvPABfR7JTI/s1600/Slide28.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFiA6kT6yY0-efxJPyn-0CtXIiZpDN28_6kP6FM4PT3eLeU8l6VDsTqCxYoOrNySGlIMDH0TsZxTSPhc8n6FL_h7399HngH8GMcYChQJYka9JL_4P8LRT0k7cOfzdlyWFtwvPABfR7JTI/s1600/Slide28.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Had the parent storm of the El Reno tornado decided to put down another one of those tornadoes, multiply this picture by 100s and that's what could've been a plausible scenario of poor risk management on a massive scale. This is an example of super high vulnerability.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqeK4PzlfePjHhGoIZHqrtH2psFYXf48c3dv2SSAWt7zgqBj1sbpc0QLcco2HE-p3xkrusoV8MCSGA0F1WEu-ytCV0iA8EcVxm7fWJdG7csnyPZu9FudM4okSo835mSJpNL8hPvf2YkiE/s1600/Slide29.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqeK4PzlfePjHhGoIZHqrtH2psFYXf48c3dv2SSAWt7zgqBj1sbpc0QLcco2HE-p3xkrusoV8MCSGA0F1WEu-ytCV0iA8EcVxm7fWJdG7csnyPZu9FudM4okSo835mSJpNL8hPvf2YkiE/s1600/Slide29.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />This strategy of these postings at OU could help steer people's risk management in the right direction. Perhaps more of them would stay at home. Most would survive, as past experience of violent tornadoes striking urban areas show. Only 0.6% of those struck by violent tornadic winds in homes didn't survive. But a higher percentage of people would be injured thanks to the quality of our housing. And nobody tracks the consequences of those injuries.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiglDvilDqrC42bG-l6dWaK2A2r3756p3c7ymxu4TAxbI22sRgBTj0o8J9GyG1sG-hD2VXHW9VG0yBOl-qYkgLx3QGB3WBPEKXv2SmR-EymZ7X6zyfmcQaqThu28o6qBP1UiqO9EZTrfjw/s1600/Slide30.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiglDvilDqrC42bG-l6dWaK2A2r3756p3c7ymxu4TAxbI22sRgBTj0o8J9GyG1sG-hD2VXHW9VG0yBOl-qYkgLx3QGB3WBPEKXv2SmR-EymZ7X6zyfmcQaqThu28o6qBP1UiqO9EZTrfjw/s1600/Slide30.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />High vulnerability lies in our collectively poor housing quality, maybe not as high as being in a vehicle but high nonetheless.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLHJCoMLfS3lmC9LUPPkrhw5exkuywQfss6VTZ51Z1fbSIxjZMDJ0Ff8j_DhGdwFtOd_KR5p-YPexKkzrtkcfGQpmnn9jMR56Ar-c3xtGpeCwCqB-0zvBiZomfBQmyJaYg0rDwIvdKn88/s1600/Slide31.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLHJCoMLfS3lmC9LUPPkrhw5exkuywQfss6VTZ51Z1fbSIxjZMDJ0Ff8j_DhGdwFtOd_KR5p-YPexKkzrtkcfGQpmnn9jMR56Ar-c3xtGpeCwCqB-0zvBiZomfBQmyJaYg0rDwIvdKn88/s1600/Slide31.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />There are exceptions, such as new neighborhoods along the Gulf or East Coasts built to modern hurricane codes. These houses near Lady Lakes, FL performed so well that it was tough to rate the tornado. Typically houses with shingle loss and cars blown around would not be seen together for typical construction. These houses are tough.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU-1n_UbHKQVkiDCy8j9uqYBFrRuy86kh7v9RVS095f7IbMjWNLnS_CxNbTW9ia2TB-7QizaXduhCdu9_rWA0lncNK9Idnz6Bb4mG0Sml7ffKYZBKaws1HwtO-uG9nlEUj-ZajNQqTNek/s1600/Slide32.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU-1n_UbHKQVkiDCy8j9uqYBFrRuy86kh7v9RVS095f7IbMjWNLnS_CxNbTW9ia2TB-7QizaXduhCdu9_rWA0lncNK9Idnz6Bb4mG0Sml7ffKYZBKaws1HwtO-uG9nlEUj-ZajNQqTNek/s1600/Slide32.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Certainly shelters have been proven time and time again in OK with the onslaught of violent tornadoes in the past few years. More and more shelters are being installed in central OK and they have a long proven track record of saving lives. I heard over 200,000 of them have been installed in OK over the past few years. This is the ultimate of 'lowering your vulnerability' act.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyLN36S29Alg6x_FZSPTHXwJ0Mue-Pc3faz5mH4m9Bmuyh7oDd1F3iJ8Botsxd1dcJ0IJA4pCDMqxLbdK2khjJ-SEV0qoIyNpBZ_JIse9CKvVcgHwPqLU2HY9j7e6Y9LIyN0bp5b4YtUw/s1600/Slide33.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyLN36S29Alg6x_FZSPTHXwJ0Mue-Pc3faz5mH4m9Bmuyh7oDd1F3iJ8Botsxd1dcJ0IJA4pCDMqxLbdK2khjJ-SEV0qoIyNpBZ_JIse9CKvVcgHwPqLU2HY9j7e6Y9LIyN0bp5b4YtUw/s1600/Slide33.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />To help people manage their own risk, we need to give them better guidance. Thus our warning system needs to change. Recall the single threshold and lead-time paradigm today in the NWS. This will change.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_mbw9-FHVfzPCQ8v9ECtv6j3YrPYmmj69YlEtYykFvQGSMsFQCuYlc-FpgMOY57xddu2e-UtviqPu2O3AKAilMxPveIwMOjQuJukoDNMegz5nNKYtj2nZxB4B32i2ZRQHIYSd4qlfIS0/s1600/Slide34.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_mbw9-FHVfzPCQ8v9ECtv6j3YrPYmmj69YlEtYykFvQGSMsFQCuYlc-FpgMOY57xddu2e-UtviqPu2O3AKAilMxPveIwMOjQuJukoDNMegz5nNKYtj2nZxB4B32i2ZRQHIYSd4qlfIS0/s1600/Slide34.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Part of that change will come about with better input available for the NWS forecaster to make better decisions.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNP9IKb9XuI49u_YNxtFkGo9LZ4UnBDNC9bZolrN47auczH7qtyce_vbBO9CBrseAiUJNTUAeU2mTLqC6oW6mvFj9GL0n142XYkta1RZQ_z7FI1AxES3kgCRGiEVzNTCgzUTAP0xftUJo/s1600/Slide35.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNP9IKb9XuI49u_YNxtFkGo9LZ4UnBDNC9bZolrN47auczH7qtyce_vbBO9CBrseAiUJNTUAeU2mTLqC6oW6mvFj9GL0n142XYkta1RZQ_z7FI1AxES3kgCRGiEVzNTCgzUTAP0xftUJo/s1600/Slide35.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />That's what the Hazardous Weather Testbed is all about.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKnJFeYvW3kkBdqlUwRM7MdP-k_U2jRnkxAY1sRdUXCRjlutmfZgyC7m1tkTEzCUAfmaz8RYgK-JBqXhbX9s6nvcYsWVjjiBm99rUV3aJvCftAtWjCT56Rn03OgpEP8gpLHUFtcJERJPA/s1600/Slide36.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKnJFeYvW3kkBdqlUwRM7MdP-k_U2jRnkxAY1sRdUXCRjlutmfZgyC7m1tkTEzCUAfmaz8RYgK-JBqXhbX9s6nvcYsWVjjiBm99rUV3aJvCftAtWjCT56Rn03OgpEP8gpLHUFtcJERJPA/s1600/Slide36.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />The HWT allows forecasters to try out new technologies, give feedback, and improve the input.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJgG91QoG-77pPlP1AjQJE4SLK0RfcqPEqHZoChxPqwhlEKKluhw4IecKbCmmRmB80PKhjmyPo9reuJu4y4wWDM6KTvlAlqb2DPFuz8MdAx7Lk4hi6A7_esB8hXs0LQYwYVpv_jXrBxkE/s1600/Slide37.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJgG91QoG-77pPlP1AjQJE4SLK0RfcqPEqHZoChxPqwhlEKKluhw4IecKbCmmRmB80PKhjmyPo9reuJu4y4wWDM6KTvlAlqb2DPFuz8MdAx7Lk4hi6A7_esB8hXs0LQYwYVpv_jXrBxkE/s1600/Slide37.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Phased array radar is one of those new technologies that could revolutionize forecaster input.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRqZdceBdAvARg4xG28IksuDNR1pWdHKyDRZP5UHizwrJnAmSlktqM10HkuN15IuAL1x3msRoXPQDcQB1v5EpuaRRfiJC7PHFPKg-6MVXEtmj9sdLBXkLBkttlNOyFjcz-Wf6t04OFIMk/s1600/Slide38.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRqZdceBdAvARg4xG28IksuDNR1pWdHKyDRZP5UHizwrJnAmSlktqM10HkuN15IuAL1x3msRoXPQDcQB1v5EpuaRRfiJC7PHFPKg-6MVXEtmj9sdLBXkLBkttlNOyFjcz-Wf6t04OFIMk/s1600/Slide38.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">Super-rapidly updating model guidance is another game changing input paradigm. But the technology will not be ready for some years if forecasters want new model guidance every several minutes as input into short-term warning updates.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAsXKgZ9FK41mQqWDO28dYNQzIq07_v2DZHCCG07mcM0RTDJ_ZN2hKhvzUj7DkDKOEGx0SjK8UIuLUPJ-fJ2pP0jc9HO9l2VN8zzyvVth6ZwOtCuO0bpFv5jzYtKtG7Aa6nKXWbTnXxxA/s1600/Slide39.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAsXKgZ9FK41mQqWDO28dYNQzIq07_v2DZHCCG07mcM0RTDJ_ZN2hKhvzUj7DkDKOEGx0SjK8UIuLUPJ-fJ2pP0jc9HO9l2VN8zzyvVth6ZwOtCuO0bpFv5jzYtKtG7Aa6nKXWbTnXxxA/s1600/Slide39.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />But such wonderful new technological input may seem lost when the warning output from the forecaster is 40 years old. We can do better.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjodPI8Ym8Uoscjc7pfzGyOwqR9PQQhEjR0w3Hi56e7qgWHf24axrCauIruELG7WVAZFv8IIwNfBHrqSkX9ZEZM7Jo0kI26wUxGcnO43v-up1uu3ES7uaHpIj4Mp9dKbefR5LFb2wRLho/s1600/Slide40.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjodPI8Ym8Uoscjc7pfzGyOwqR9PQQhEjR0w3Hi56e7qgWHf24axrCauIruELG7WVAZFv8IIwNfBHrqSkX9ZEZM7Jo0kI26wUxGcnO43v-up1uu3ES7uaHpIj4Mp9dKbefR5LFb2wRLho/s1600/Slide40.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Maybe we already are. On the El Reno day 2013, the NWS OUN office was putting out information by the minute, much more frequently than the 40 year old warning model. This output went out via multiple channels each day of severe weather.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitrStYWfX0h6-3KoKx50QhlcY2kIvkW_y3DE02qxUXsU3Y8IFZjN6Ip2DWTQ81oR0cx90-a9aFg_W4oTv9KnVaTBp_lQJmKI6MognJ93gPXPn0fLCXdhDx2IWmFfDqOuWs3M5_EgoaFqQ/s1600/Slide41.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitrStYWfX0h6-3KoKx50QhlcY2kIvkW_y3DE02qxUXsU3Y8IFZjN6Ip2DWTQ81oR0cx90-a9aFg_W4oTv9KnVaTBp_lQJmKI6MognJ93gPXPn0fLCXdhDx2IWmFfDqOuWs3M5_EgoaFqQ/s1600/Slide41.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />In the future, warning output may allow warnings to follow storms. Thus no one place gets their lead-time shafted by discrete, static, polygon issuance. </span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgigchT3FltTTGRrUlQfMR4TBZOC8kqgmNvEMTqUMo1LZlp-QZ0p6CTnOZ7xvpXyHrVUAPtuaexr9F3BByePK9pH86C2hQSvT1r8Vh3OKLL-uCrbguX-G75HM_T0UeoisZagfRPQPZXIcg/s1600/Slide42.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgigchT3FltTTGRrUlQfMR4TBZOC8kqgmNvEMTqUMo1LZlp-QZ0p6CTnOZ7xvpXyHrVUAPtuaexr9F3BByePK9pH86C2hQSvT1r8Vh3OKLL-uCrbguX-G75HM_T0UeoisZagfRPQPZXIcg/s1600/Slide42.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption">Then there's FACETS, a project at NSSL to take the output to the next step where gridded probabilistic guidance by hazard can help inform people while they manage their risk. It'll take a lot of work to realize what form this output will take. But whatever form it takes, certainly institutions responsible for moving large numbers of people (e.g., large outdoor venues and hospitals) could use this guidance to begin preparations well before any legacy warning gets issued.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_KSEM_jiLp2AR56LGT69HBidDM4OIpr7qDukBrzd8x9AnLOX73kZOGMQ5HGieJM5NUCS0vGcUZWCOI32AkEzt1j1zxrMxh7_tHu7z93E2515wzV0eB84A_uuVFZtRbW3mCL_P24HxnP0/s1600/Slide44.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_KSEM_jiLp2AR56LGT69HBidDM4OIpr7qDukBrzd8x9AnLOX73kZOGMQ5HGieJM5NUCS0vGcUZWCOI32AkEzt1j1zxrMxh7_tHu7z93E2515wzV0eB84A_uuVFZtRbW3mCL_P24HxnP0/s1600/Slide44.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Still, we go back to the quality of our housing. Risk management is a lot easier if our houses were built well enough to provide us some level of decent protection. It's not just health but also we've got to consider mitigation of lost productivity due to loss of property.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvqwfMMek4lpUq_J9OSBv1JnB28L5chyphenhyphen76B52Llx75Rb8xl3MlgczVX3vblEorxfxGTxI2i3onWVYym_Txs_gEc5XPEhlUXasygJqKIkj1AX8kNzuyzu7Mkfw0XX_2931BLHETmzMoDzg/s1600/Slide45.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvqwfMMek4lpUq_J9OSBv1JnB28L5chyphenhyphen76B52Llx75Rb8xl3MlgczVX3vblEorxfxGTxI2i3onWVYym_Txs_gEc5XPEhlUXasygJqKIkj1AX8kNzuyzu7Mkfw0XX_2931BLHETmzMoDzg/s1600/Slide45.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />It's major events like the Moore tornado 2013 that give us learning moments about how to build better.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKwkMKlOy1uiLrXmrBSg0Jaxc2jzzlpIoyoHi6IkNOYu3PlkLRAOrD1aSus7qWi0fq64FTlaM5TRenlzsM-N7A6kALktHmSkqtDVaUnTScVARkg_hDSDyLE7D7E27OlcF8wSGq1W6Tkg4/s1600/Slide46.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKwkMKlOy1uiLrXmrBSg0Jaxc2jzzlpIoyoHi6IkNOYu3PlkLRAOrD1aSus7qWi0fq64FTlaM5TRenlzsM-N7A6kALktHmSkqtDVaUnTScVARkg_hDSDyLE7D7E27OlcF8wSGq1W6Tkg4/s1600/Slide46.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />We learn by doing surveys. Aerial, even satellite imagery helps define areas of interest where we want to investigate further. This Aster instrument showed dramatically lowered vegetation health (healthy is red) along the tornado track. It even showed a kink in the damage path next to I-35 in Moore that was worth investigating some more.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM4HNBGLYwdPQP4jKdvlEpFk1SMf1c5x-R9n4wWI6mdZFi7qImp0IsFwY1bgIx2tf59eKL0xznCthWH5lwZb8ShbfTQCKVOM2S6bb7d02NHdm8Zwqqu6R6BsXW66uoRnR_T6U9wXUi92A/s1600/Slide47.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM4HNBGLYwdPQP4jKdvlEpFk1SMf1c5x-R9n4wWI6mdZFi7qImp0IsFwY1bgIx2tf59eKL0xznCthWH5lwZb8ShbfTQCKVOM2S6bb7d02NHdm8Zwqqu6R6BsXW66uoRnR_T6U9wXUi92A/s1600/Slide47.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Aerial and ground surveys help us assess the damage intensity and its spatial extent.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2lpSMEakla1TOKvpNTwrp_1DwpbRsl8dD2z06_vkdMf3KE_9CExPFGoWeumUwBK1mAdOU204_FHvjXkSqz-TIiPYfxxaF5pbvYHtTcWT4EYSfQaz9O8IrrA_0vE4SlStoTAHgKE9K9gY/s1600/Slide48.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2lpSMEakla1TOKvpNTwrp_1DwpbRsl8dD2z06_vkdMf3KE_9CExPFGoWeumUwBK1mAdOU204_FHvjXkSqz-TIiPYfxxaF5pbvYHtTcWT4EYSfQaz9O8IrrA_0vE4SlStoTAHgKE9K9gY/s1600/Slide48.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Our surveys were also assisted by radar data at first to help narrow down the damage swath. It was the PX1000 radar data run by the Advanced Radar Research Center that helped spot the small loop the tornado enacted near the Moore Medical Center.</span></span> </td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzoschrkKn2_rX_Ih8jvNrLdAOcz7oZyHCoPaIPr2wkKDYMzYLoJmooCn_zMpshADR772hyphenhyphenC5IaFT9boBDkj55MVzEpRWzTpRIPL41swDVii7en-t98Mipt50lp6XxIswPgH5hLAJ6a18/s1600/Slide49.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzoschrkKn2_rX_Ih8jvNrLdAOcz7oZyHCoPaIPr2wkKDYMzYLoJmooCn_zMpshADR772hyphenhyphenC5IaFT9boBDkj55MVzEpRWzTpRIPL41swDVii7en-t98Mipt50lp6XxIswPgH5hLAJ6a18/s1600/Slide49.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Several teams rated 4000 damage indicators. This segment was near the Plaza Towers Elementary School that was destroyed by the tornado and where 7 students were lost. This imagery is from the Google Crisis Response imagery.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqqRx_ymjKxvp2yNfhGGu2XxSWKiuGsFHYVif6XcAXS7QYEo1hl2zjKzrenrHxxcT7Xjow68lVNTxD8Z649aZUfJTfimOro-UKLmXUioRcaTOAjjYac-zuEOQ27ZifHML1Fx3PBKDuINQ/s1600/Slide50.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqqRx_ymjKxvp2yNfhGGu2XxSWKiuGsFHYVif6XcAXS7QYEo1hl2zjKzrenrHxxcT7Xjow68lVNTxD8Z649aZUfJTfimOro-UKLmXUioRcaTOAjjYac-zuEOQ27ZifHML1Fx3PBKDuINQ/s1600/Slide50.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />We find housing flaws that should not have happened. All homes in the neighborhood built ~2000 had their foundations swept completely clean while the neighborhood east of the school withstood the tornado long enough to have most walls down but debris remaining. How could an entire neighborhood, built in this day in age, perform worse than an older neighborhood? Home buyers need to become better customers and demand better from home builders. But it shouldn't stop there. Towns need to adopt better building codes, not after a disaster, but before they happen!</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcq8kvPI9xm0wsC0L-2IrXBQSBMGJake7BBX0-jtK980yxex65GMgm1jcYhMG845bpm5CDhyRpT5ozDQUUAl0_Cobv_KPsQ8R5ubMRgwiwZC0t5IrxSzLI1KrIcASmQsvSbsd38ZNZb-E/s1600/Slide51.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcq8kvPI9xm0wsC0L-2IrXBQSBMGJake7BBX0-jtK980yxex65GMgm1jcYhMG845bpm5CDhyRpT5ozDQUUAl0_Cobv_KPsQ8R5ubMRgwiwZC0t5IrxSzLI1KrIcASmQsvSbsd38ZNZb-E/s1600/Slide51.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />School building construction performed poorly from the tornado. We know why and what should be done to mitigate this kind of performance. It's only through good risk management that the teachers managed to save as many kids as they did. They only need build proper reinforced CMU walls and connections to roof and foundation to save the rest.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht3cbsHkUels5idZCOsB7DzhEveNG59eM0bJ4Ym3JsPmwqDwMr-H9dwnCfYLIG6bF6GkpdeUOsROQG2qVpmsbUqoPYQyzY2aUfGGKaJZLYU5YbvjppvHqtsZKzQXjRJDGJS2PnASG5_FA/s1600/Slide52.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht3cbsHkUels5idZCOsB7DzhEveNG59eM0bJ4Ym3JsPmwqDwMr-H9dwnCfYLIG6bF6GkpdeUOsROQG2qVpmsbUqoPYQyzY2aUfGGKaJZLYU5YbvjppvHqtsZKzQXjRJDGJS2PnASG5_FA/s1600/Slide52.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Many houses have no continuous load paths. This picture is a screaming example of what the lack of a continuous load path can do. Well, I guess someone sleeping in an upstairs bedroom would be OK in this picture but what a ride it would've been.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Cg2G_PANEswaa2V7T2S0El1E81aq5xHqvAzWW-o3Lwp3jsaCnUS-QcHgJ0_hyAkuJ5tn2VkyifvSgGtMFqBOrLyoSV4B5tc6rjeeM1MOU2aW8aFaw2lGFTm1Jz3P1waoN0FBoXJ_RaM/s1600/Slide53.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Cg2G_PANEswaa2V7T2S0El1E81aq5xHqvAzWW-o3Lwp3jsaCnUS-QcHgJ0_hyAkuJ5tn2VkyifvSgGtMFqBOrLyoSV4B5tc6rjeeM1MOU2aW8aFaw2lGFTm1Jz3P1waoN0FBoXJ_RaM/s1600/Slide53.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />One could build a steel reinforced concrete dome house for the ultimate in tornado resistance. But how many home buyers want to live in a home that looks like a space ship?</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqfdVEFzPIbjx3htoxNOJc1TivnRub_L-GjWd_wtRlcCRVVdYJK6p5tAN-jpTa2BG3Bpi-eadDFUNAGaK795-8Fws1TiRWd4hFAifZ_9hIfAZdggXNk4Sg8SCj1qOZrvHdtJ6DUGpGffE/s1600/Slide54.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqfdVEFzPIbjx3htoxNOJc1TivnRub_L-GjWd_wtRlcCRVVdYJK6p5tAN-jpTa2BG3Bpi-eadDFUNAGaK795-8Fws1TiRWd4hFAifZ_9hIfAZdggXNk4Sg8SCj1qOZrvHdtJ6DUGpGffE/s1600/Slide54.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yet the couple that were in the house at the time of the tornado were injured simply because they watched it come from the kitchen bar without taking further shelter in the bathroom. All interior rooms were completely intact with no sign of penetration of debris or dust without the need of a storm shelter.</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGapEi3tf4FnUPrx28mKBIJWzJsj-zbrTWI7CD5iRNTDEI377hy9NAscWpzURKLG3fEdzT-ZRsjLVruNTxGfurlE7wS7-FgKQsSmEJkIzQcA7aKPRQCe3WccT93c3bebPHgnHXt-zjhPk/s1600/Slide55.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGapEi3tf4FnUPrx28mKBIJWzJsj-zbrTWI7CD5iRNTDEI377hy9NAscWpzURKLG3fEdzT-ZRsjLVruNTxGfurlE7wS7-FgKQsSmEJkIzQcA7aKPRQCe3WccT93c3bebPHgnHXt-zjhPk/s1600/Slide55.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQriq-wJlVTO9OfQnzW5cZ_xL_QNCzpvbCgHM1WU64o-fXE3DGy22LQBVZtwmmMDcRddHSruBLr3Mcw_wi8EGq10YCzwiVJsWQiuQCM95EhyphenhyphenMNrOBsRaKKlORJ6P_Io0mnhTzHv667Ctg/s1600/Slide56.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQriq-wJlVTO9OfQnzW5cZ_xL_QNCzpvbCgHM1WU64o-fXE3DGy22LQBVZtwmmMDcRddHSruBLr3Mcw_wi8EGq10YCzwiVJsWQiuQCM95EhyphenhyphenMNrOBsRaKKlORJ6P_Io0mnhTzHv667Ctg/s1600/Slide56.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Well, we don't have to live in a space ship for added protection. It's simple to create a continuous load path in a house under construction. A $1000 worth of clips, J-bolts and metal straps, anchoring the roof all the way down to the foundation, is a lions share of what's needed. The rest comes from fortifying garage doors, windows, and adding cross-bracing through proper sheathing. None of this is rocket science and all of it is worth the price, especially when considering the costs of retrofitting a house after it's built.</span></span> </td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisw3SH0wqY8w84VTzQK_pTf1uQNVPv8vho3M5WHlk_EqRUKmz7jrMjoYD2kTsGAebV2a40EqhbwOng_IoIMQ2MJHw856M5KoWAHQL-3MEyLoaxWkp36_T0mhBRQhARdAEkppzCiQH8lqc/s1600/Slide57.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisw3SH0wqY8w84VTzQK_pTf1uQNVPv8vho3M5WHlk_EqRUKmz7jrMjoYD2kTsGAebV2a40EqhbwOng_IoIMQ2MJHw856M5KoWAHQL-3MEyLoaxWkp36_T0mhBRQhARdAEkppzCiQH8lqc/s1600/Slide57.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />The labor might be a bit more, but what home buyer would turn this down if they knew how easy it is to do? This could save on a lot of damage.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo1nsMDKkvX_DRDtidg_vOa_uJhm6NkUtcBF1Yp0ItUuL1Wi8e1dg8L1leLgXdiSIzXxqgIvx1-qggqOIupvPgUx-Pg9ZCXUOwAbaASxhPM_v9EkIASwrKc51nnjUr70Kya_oURafOM24/s1600/Slide58.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo1nsMDKkvX_DRDtidg_vOa_uJhm6NkUtcBF1Yp0ItUuL1Wi8e1dg8L1leLgXdiSIzXxqgIvx1-qggqOIupvPgUx-Pg9ZCXUOwAbaASxhPM_v9EkIASwrKc51nnjUr70Kya_oURafOM24/s1600/Slide58.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Look what strapping did for an apartment complex in Joplin.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipA0SzmKGBpMQMjZbYHVjgJlo68DdVZD1F8ThD2jNQMQxgcsgRFTwT0pgRqbYYU_fX6vQ2T9StkTKXVL7O16yS4X9WxZHCriqM9JQazTrbhUm-CDvIG2DarghfxffpaLmuLus-PPT9euo/s1600/Slide59.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipA0SzmKGBpMQMjZbYHVjgJlo68DdVZD1F8ThD2jNQMQxgcsgRFTwT0pgRqbYYU_fX6vQ2T9StkTKXVL7O16yS4X9WxZHCriqM9JQazTrbhUm-CDvIG2DarghfxffpaLmuLus-PPT9euo/s1600/Slide59.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />This apartment complex was in EF 2 winds yet did not suffer the level of damage commensurate with such winds for apartments of just standard construction.</span></span></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEIrHMVrEG8t8eL_2KpKdI2dfpX8_tKyv59BayLWoyX_CShvrabR1uNUlB00hOCPi94a-d3CFjveP8GGmVDGgHRO7Pu-DlnNCpXLWGgt_OIfveL4nSMJ9M0dE_-rDTLtXrl-qHhIOCQy8/s1600/Slide60.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEIrHMVrEG8t8eL_2KpKdI2dfpX8_tKyv59BayLWoyX_CShvrabR1uNUlB00hOCPi94a-d3CFjveP8GGmVDGgHRO7Pu-DlnNCpXLWGgt_OIfveL4nSMJ9M0dE_-rDTLtXrl-qHhIOCQy8/s1600/Slide60.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />These houses also had a continuous load path with steel reinforced CMU walls and proper roof attachments. The only Achilles' heel for any of these buildings still are the windows.</span></span></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHBYgnfOCp03Y7Bt_E5XSekqZcM7Bwlgrk8ta5ZdlnGfKR-x4Z4XBkfHUUDJc84B-t2UOcYmwf_txQVTssisiVsRWLS3wHL8HJc5_vigLN1rSB-Bq0DOqRBOaNT8ghArLnk1TCqEjgSko/s1600/Slide61.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHBYgnfOCp03Y7Bt_E5XSekqZcM7Bwlgrk8ta5ZdlnGfKR-x4Z4XBkfHUUDJc84B-t2UOcYmwf_txQVTssisiVsRWLS3wHL8HJc5_vigLN1rSB-Bq0DOqRBOaNT8ghArLnk1TCqEjgSko/s1600/Slide61.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />This office building in Woodward, OK would've done okay if it weren't for the windows inflating the building and blowing off the roof. Can more be done with windows?</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC_d-Sp0WLn2OUMgaZbvklCCtPnbUtKUteGcisalWp0KBnmTUMV1dOHWKxJvdkpgmoLy13Wkc1-YjEumkUxrmqiD5WXA6HnjaP1NbDluOeW6E8n2bO1Oa89kPJPul261l8YTxR-OPBs9g/s1600/Slide62.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC_d-Sp0WLn2OUMgaZbvklCCtPnbUtKUteGcisalWp0KBnmTUMV1dOHWKxJvdkpgmoLy13Wkc1-YjEumkUxrmqiD5WXA6HnjaP1NbDluOeW6E8n2bO1Oa89kPJPul261l8YTxR-OPBs9g/s1600/Slide62.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />This hospital had laminated glass on one floor and none of it broke in the Joplin tornado. It's more expensive, just like a storm shelter. But who in Moore would complain?</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih0XZLeN8TyOk_VP8PGN_y21M5wwsS2n9gPy1XQEWPAsTs8TFF5ybe8zGXuNVlf7qn5caJ-je_W5tWL-G74y5doeN5gt1Xtjfyw_GZ8s37YW7SEB2-r0VzurHyZM2MoDC7yLESOxsyHuM/s1600/Slide63.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih0XZLeN8TyOk_VP8PGN_y21M5wwsS2n9gPy1XQEWPAsTs8TFF5ybe8zGXuNVlf7qn5caJ-je_W5tWL-G74y5doeN5gt1Xtjfyw_GZ8s37YW7SEB2-r0VzurHyZM2MoDC7yLESOxsyHuM/s1600/Slide63.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Part of building better is understanding how buildings perform in real tornadic winds. Guess what, tornadic winds don't follow straight lines.</span></span></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuH-ZLln-OZLtdr14MQhE348FC1bN1Usbd9Y4yIBgsgwckpdxveDO9GSjIK0d8ceAruayktsbTOXmqU1jswaidMe-_oTCaihGAunvimjEvcEIM3hAsjQHhtAvMuXNbC_KMb-r_WZTzU3I/s1600/Slide64.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuH-ZLln-OZLtdr14MQhE348FC1bN1Usbd9Y4yIBgsgwckpdxveDO9GSjIK0d8ceAruayktsbTOXmqU1jswaidMe-_oTCaihGAunvimjEvcEIM3hAsjQHhtAvMuXNbC_KMb-r_WZTzU3I/s1600/Slide64.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />We've got a lot of assumptions about how buildings perform. Do they all really respond to a 10 m 3 second wind gust? Is that really the wind in a tornado? Do winds in a tornado environment always decrease in strength toward ground level as so many 'experts' assume?</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc67Bgl3t2MfObsy6ITTAB0_lkp7kjR5EQBDpnMN0ykcgT52nyGyxNnpCcR1sghDqMhyINGOQwWmMsNopSLDwsIPTp8rrO6Lij8ko-hVfyYsXDW04Weyqei8FbMXszMYm4a_GNEhsje6s/s1600/Slide65.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc67Bgl3t2MfObsy6ITTAB0_lkp7kjR5EQBDpnMN0ykcgT52nyGyxNnpCcR1sghDqMhyINGOQwWmMsNopSLDwsIPTp8rrO6Lij8ko-hVfyYsXDW04Weyqei8FbMXszMYm4a_GNEhsje6s/s1600/Slide65.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />No! And in-situ measurements are showing it. This profile was taken during the Goshen, WY tornado during VORTEX2. The Tornado Intercept Vehicle sampled wind speeds at 3.5 m AGL (3 sec gust in red) considerably higher than the DOW radar beam at 30 m AGL (yellow).</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizLaBPQByX2z5wWk2btXeaqLijtSHkgzbhg37QfEsGYff1kj7rOBDHvnGN6FMQ0gE2fkSPbU6Lw8u3jAcvmfvIJerX8OrXPXDKH1pOUdYmwRglBeOnTrAiXrHptXsZLxlcT6HFE102E9w/s1600/Slide66.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizLaBPQByX2z5wWk2btXeaqLijtSHkgzbhg37QfEsGYff1kj7rOBDHvnGN6FMQ0gE2fkSPbU6Lw8u3jAcvmfvIJerX8OrXPXDKH1pOUdYmwRglBeOnTrAiXrHptXsZLxlcT6HFE102E9w/s1600/Slide66.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />A lot of different assumptions have to be made when the peak horizontal wind is at 3 m above ground vs 30 m or even 300 m. It's time to throw the old thinking out.</span></span></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiTnD6snhgv7-S9BpXIzTad6Owu_3c2pV54oHtzovbrLpycd8H-vtwlqZLITJ5jEjfusGfFB51i020GLg2cUJUBz7rC7xXwncWUyEl8CsJ8_q3cWjlvuJSEFGM1w0-E49QH5j3pLhsPdg/s1600/Slide67.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiTnD6snhgv7-S9BpXIzTad6Owu_3c2pV54oHtzovbrLpycd8H-vtwlqZLITJ5jEjfusGfFB51i020GLg2cUJUBz7rC7xXwncWUyEl8CsJ8_q3cWjlvuJSEFGM1w0-E49QH5j3pLhsPdg/s1600/Slide67.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />The forces upon buildings can be much stronger with a constant or stronger for a vertical profile of constant horizontal wind in a tornado environment than what conventional wisdom may have implied earlier with a typical profile where wind increases with height from 3 to 10 m and above. For winds increasing in strength toward 3 m, the forces would be stronger yet than what this graph shows. It also means that the winds sampled by mobile radar sampled somewhere above 10 m can be greatly underestimated. And we have not even discussed strong vertical wind components near ground</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcIDt2efKX4OzIyXXrZBVOOeyXJJHOS1_BHKUbK-Cn7Wl8YpQG-JaoIPaOiShLFgK44itQ87TVxQjIfzApO4uk2d3qfrPhyphenhyphenR1diEMejyNwcGo-JAUhUdRmejPIAMyA1xkuYllrAKSyZLo/s1600/Slide68.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcIDt2efKX4OzIyXXrZBVOOeyXJJHOS1_BHKUbK-Cn7Wl8YpQG-JaoIPaOiShLFgK44itQ87TVxQjIfzApO4uk2d3qfrPhyphenhyphenR1diEMejyNwcGo-JAUhUdRmejPIAMyA1xkuYllrAKSyZLo/s1600/Slide68.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Videos such as this one in Leighton, AL show compelling evidence that intense vertical winds begin below car top level. Wind engineers now realize this is true. Horizontal winds don't just pick up cars with no initial sliding or rolling.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-OK8N1NmDCkqSBTMk9nIdCtVnXew3zIMzGcYyLLylgBYosgyuWg5oZef5i_4yFzsD2dSPpHisW3-edMVeNw43TGcp0G_011P60CikN4gF-yuWrN5f8U1kIZ0hA3JAV41lay0g52p5Eiw/s1600/Slide69.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-OK8N1NmDCkqSBTMk9nIdCtVnXew3zIMzGcYyLLylgBYosgyuWg5oZef5i_4yFzsD2dSPpHisW3-edMVeNw43TGcp0G_011P60CikN4gF-yuWrN5f8U1kIZ0hA3JAV41lay0g52p5Eiw/s1600/Slide69.jpg" height="240" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />And they are doing something about it. This simulator in Iowa State already is providing wind engineers data about how much stronger tornado wind stresses are than winds from other storms.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; text-align: left; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption"><br />Mobile radar is also providing some compelling evidence that tornadoes are stronger than the damage-based climatology suggests in areas where there's not much to damage.</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Not all the time do winds increase going from 10 to 3m. We still need a lot more data to determine what tornado behaviors are associated with a reverse wind profile, and also strong vertical flow near ground level observed when tornadoes exhibit strong corner flow. This information is critical. Assets like mobile radar and in-situ probes, whether by the TIV or by smaller probes, will need to sample tornado environments numerous times in order to acquire data from a variety of tornado behaviors in a variety of terrain. I encourage even those chasers willing to put armored vehicles in harms way to go the extra inch it would take to outfit their vehicles with research quality, and well sited, anemometers. The latter may sound controversial but if their bent on doing this, they could at least help provide the data to answer these questions. After the money spent on armoring vehicles, adding a research quality anemometer should be pretty trivial. Then we can produce more accurate models of building performance in tornado environments. *</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">To recap, I put this talk out there to highlight some of the learning moments that struck a chord with me. I believe that the quality of severe weather forecasts has gone up considerably to the point where societal and communication issues dominate in any disaster. Getting people to react properly by learning good risk management is key. We've only scratched the surface in this respect and we can do so much more. I believe that any K-12 school curriculum should contain a required course on risk management, whether it's managing funds to managing safety. Now that's not to say that forecast improvements will help. They will. They will help as long as the method of communication keeps up with the forecast capabilities so that they continue to be useful.</span><br />
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But in order to help the public, and officials, manage their risk, the research community needs to continue to help the NWS change its warning paradigm. No longer should the NWS be the sole providers of warnings. They should also be providers of warning guidance so that all users can create their own warnings based on their own vulnerability. Fortunately the momentum behind the <a href="https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/facets/" target="_blank">FACETS</a> program holds promise because it has grabbed the attention of NWS and NOAA management. Now it must grab the attention of other sectors, especially the private sector. They are the ones that can provide a broad variety tools to help users manage their risk. <br />
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Finally, let's do something about the built environment. I'm getting tired of seeing one <a href="http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/25810?id=5633" target="_blank">FEMA</a>/<a href="http://www.nist.gov/el/building_materials/joplin-032614.cfm" target="_blank">NIST</a>/<a href="http://esridev.caps.ua.edu/MooreTornado/Images/MooreTornadoFinalReport.pdf" target="_blank">NSF</a> report after another talking about the inferior quality of our housing construction. Fortunately, after three violent tornadoes visiting the city of Moore, I hear that housing codes may be upgraded. The same has happened in Joplin, MO after their tornado. Now I only hope that one day a disaster isn't required for codes to be upgraded. Can we actually be proactive? Well, I'm not holding my breath. Sometimes, most of the time, it takes a consumer to want a better built house, to want better from their home builders. I don't know the answer to this except more vigorous education. Grab them when they're young, before they fall into the trap of valuing more frivolous furnishings like granite countertops above those things that could save their lives (e.g., shelters, sprinklers, continuous load paths). Yes, that's another call for education in the K-12 grades.<br />
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*<span style="font-size: x-small;"> I do not assume any responsibility for the risk chasers put upon themselves should they decide to transect tornadoes with their armored, or otherwise, vehicles. </span></div>
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Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-10996980416454726762014-01-06T20:29:00.001-08:002014-01-06T20:29:40.465-08:00Extreme cold lake effect and what to expect on Lake Ontario, part 2<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Communities east of Lake Ontario are going to be literally buried over the next few days as an extremely cold airmass will spread eastward from the upper midwest states. The front has passed and the snow band has begun. These airmasses have visited the lakes before and I've experienced two similar ones in the past, the Jan 20, 1985 and the Jan 19, 1994. Each of these events brings a little historical context as to what people will experience in the next few days and it also brings up unusual phenomena that the OWLES project may be able to document.<br />
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At 500 mb, this cold wave is manifesting itself with very low geopotential heights across the western Lakes. Any time I see heights falling below 500 dm as far south as Lake Michigan, I'm looking at an unusually deep midlevel trough. Now the media has spread the term 'Polar Vortex' like wildfire as if it's something right out of the movie 'Day After Tomorrow'. Hopefully there's no panic ensuing should the mythical 'eye' of the vortex passes overhead. Again the only unusual aspect of this 'Polar Vortex' is that a lobe of it extends pretty far to the south. But as with so many times this happened before, we'll survive.<br />
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Perhaps more impressive is that the 850 mb temperatures have fallen to -30 C over the upper midwest and as I wrote in the last <a href="http://jimladueview.blogspot.com/2014/01/what-is-extreme-cold-air-outbreak-going.html">entry</a>, these sub -30 C temps will advect eastward to Pennsylvania. Again, as far as the big cold waves are concerned, this is not unprecedented, only unusual to the extent that they occur every several years or so.</div>
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At the surface in mid afternoon, I focus on the eastern lakes after the cold front passed to the east and the temperatures are in a free-fall. Sub zero (F) temperatures have swept into Lake Michigan and are being moderated to the low single digits. But further south, the sub zero air swept unimpeded across newly fallen snow in Indiana and into Ohio, sweeping up into northwest Pennsylvania. Temperatures have fallen rapidly across the lakes and the lake effect machine turned on across Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario. While surface temperatures along Lake Ontario's snow band were typical for the beginning of lake effect, the temperatures approaching the western end of Lake Erie were extremely cold for mid afternoon. Surely these cold temperatures will create quite a different type of snow compared to that of Lake Ontario. But there are other considerations that will make the lake effect snow quite unique for extremely cold snow. <br />
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To see what I mean by unique, I go back to basics of snow crystal formation. Crystal shape is highly dependent on the temperature in which it grows and the level of supersaturation that occurs (RH>100% but not by much). Here, in a typical environment of snow, the type of snow crystal is heavily dependent on temperature based on this diagram from Ukichiro Nakaya, and replicated many times since (see this review <a href="http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/publist/rpp5_4_R03.pdf">article</a> from Libbrecht 2005). The fluffy dentrite-dominated snow preferably forms from -10 to -20 C under typical supersaturations, and can be most often observed naturally with modest ascending air associated with orographic snow in the intermountain west, some lake effect snow, and on the cold side of extratropical cyclones. It is at these temperatures that the precipitation production efficiency reaches its peak in saturated ascending air. The two consequences of this are that precipitation rates reach a maximum (all other considerations being under control), and the snow becomes less dense. Clusters of dendrites (snow flakes) reach their fluffiest potential when the -10 to -20 C layer is firmly embedded within a cloud.</div>
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That's not going to happen once the eastern lakes are firmly embedded in the coldest of the arctic airmass. According to the forecast sounding early Tuesday morning, places like Watertown, NY will exhibit a surface temperature of around -14 to -17 C and the temperature within the lake effect cloud will only be colder. When viewing Nikaya's diagram above, ice crystals forming in temperatures from -20 to -30 will yield more simple ice crystals that may find a more difficult time in joining together to create snow flakes. Or even if they do, they would likely be denser. Thus the snow will be denser. In addition, small supersaturations may yield less efficient precipitation production processes may yield smaller amounts of precipitation. What the result will be is likely less precipitation of denser snow. This super cold lake effect snow from early tomorrow morning till Wednesday should be predominantly a dense assortment of plates and columns.</div>
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But will that be the case? One thing to remember is that Nikaya's diagram is the result of crystal growth in a controlled laboratory setting, perhaps in a chamber large enough to document the crystal growth but certainly not too large to control all the parameters researchers desired to change. How similar will such a setting be compared to a band with a meso-alpha structure similar to that depicted in the forecast below for 0600 EST Tuesday morning? According to the 4 km NAM (courtesy of NWS BTV), there will be an intense long axis lake effect band with a band-induced convergence zone and a mesoscale inflow jet exceeding 40 kts on its south side. </div>
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The NAM is also quite aggressive in modifying the low-level temperature field due to strong sensible heating as the band accelerated the flow across the lake. If the NAM is truly correct, then 2m temperatures will stay in the 20's F over the lake which is the reason that substantial amounts of CAPE will exist to aid convection. Nakaya didn't create the chart in moist convective clouds.</div>
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Thus if the NAM is correct, then there will be a substantial opportunity to get saturated ascent within the -10 to -20 C layer and that ascent will be strong starting from very shallow layer near the lake. Will this scenario be the case? The only way to find out is to sample the very low levels over the lake, or immediately along the shoreline near or in the band. If we don't see temperatures near 20 F in the band on the shoreline tomorrow morning then the NAM is off the mark and we'd have to find out why.</div>
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What if the NAM temperatures wind up being too high? Would the lake effect be just high density plates and columns of snow falling at a less than optimal rate? Should the forecasts tone down their snowfall amounts to lower values than the nearly incredible 6" of liquid equivalent forecast by the 4 km NAM over the Tug Hill? Let's go back and find out from the two previous cases of super cold arctic air that I mentioned earlier.</div>
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Back in 1994, a similarly cold arctic outbreak took a similar trajectory around a strong surface low in northern Ontario with a similar pattern. The 500 mb 'Polar Vortex', if you will, took a similar southerly track, the 1000-500 mb thickness was below 500 dm and, if anything, the 850 mb temps were even colder. At the time I worked in Washington DC and Lake Ontario was just a short 7 hour trip up on Rt 81. I had to go experience this epic event and I asked my friend Bob Boyd if he wanted to go. He was interested too. We departed a couple days before the main event was to begin on the 18th with Oswego as our target.</div>
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Like today, the cold front passed to the east of the lake and near surface temperatures fell to near 0 F on the upwind side of the lake. The band immediately set up in a long axis configuration darkening the skies to the north from the Nine Mile Pt area. This band stayed over the center of the lake but then at night it shifted south into Oswego. The band intensified as its depth increased to nearly 4 km and it wasn't too long before we were experiencing blizzard conditions along the south edge of the band. Not just marginal blizzard conditions. The band intensified the inflow to 50-60 mph with snow easily 4"/hour. These conditions persisted for hours overnight, however occasionally the band's convergence axis moved overhead and the winds would quickly drop to near calm. With surface temperatures nearly 0F, Bob and I witnessed numerous lightning flashes both on the windy south side of the band and within its center. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPJbHgJ1jXJl5H_ZWgEamwd590EbNVskfxxAge2SjxUqSrvMgHQEGhDiMJwK0PJ-CG7UzGyRvSAQewarEEXYU0W1EGW_xIeUeKe5wwxx_wmHQV2Fp-NLgHEwPRgAqOUM0z9QxTguN7AcY/s1600/Slide18.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPJbHgJ1jXJl5H_ZWgEamwd590EbNVskfxxAge2SjxUqSrvMgHQEGhDiMJwK0PJ-CG7UzGyRvSAQewarEEXYU0W1EGW_xIeUeKe5wwxx_wmHQV2Fp-NLgHEwPRgAqOUM0z9QxTguN7AcY/s1600/Slide18.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A view of Lake Ontario on Jan 18, 1994 from near Nine Mile Point facing north. Thick lake effect snow darkened the sky as a long axis lake effect band developed. Closer to me, a hole formed in the shore fast ice creating a natural blow hole as waves swept into the narrow constriction.</td></tr>
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The sounding from Buffalo that evening was impressive. It showed that the convective layer could easily have been up to nearly 4 km with lake heating, but starting out with a surface temperature near -20 C! There was no part of the sounding within the dendrite layer. Thus the snow that we were getting would likely have formed in temperatures well below the optimal levels to maximize precipitation efficiency. Yet we were getting absolutely clobbered.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgodfF9uEgzNkT5FvNB6o6bXfS8GeKhxOCVZ2qiKRRiQsIvQB9GajOJfYqWbpYbn0owsyCM1FWOSJoGiDmQusaFtq8lnJvL6PAZpI88qt0kQOFbcBNsPFoN-Ye4IR1E5fQWQ6JBra8DKm8/s1600/Slide17.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgodfF9uEgzNkT5FvNB6o6bXfS8GeKhxOCVZ2qiKRRiQsIvQB9GajOJfYqWbpYbn0owsyCM1FWOSJoGiDmQusaFtq8lnJvL6PAZpI88qt0kQOFbcBNsPFoN-Ye4IR1E5fQWQ6JBra8DKm8/s1600/Slide17.PNG" height="300" width="400" /></a></div>
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When morning broke, the scene outside our hotel room looked like the picture below. It was tough to make a good guess of the snowfall overnight but I suspect over 2 feet and less than 3. What was more interesting though was that every upwind surface was plastered with snow. This was a scene that I would've expected from a wet snow. But clearly when the surface temperature was near 0 F, there wouldn't be much liquid water to provide the adhesive properties of this snow.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6JcCrUyEXKNhYnwCzYN7mEGJj75G2Z82UyUye57nDkPckG0_zHOEzY35QvUMLQhHJl_CEXAXU8ak0D82VhGhOoMYIbihJQY11qk_HBDkjqJeqvUH-qAYbLW2k4okdHqAnvt75LyeSouI/s1600/Slide19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6JcCrUyEXKNhYnwCzYN7mEGJj75G2Z82UyUye57nDkPckG0_zHOEzY35QvUMLQhHJl_CEXAXU8ak0D82VhGhOoMYIbihJQY11qk_HBDkjqJeqvUH-qAYbLW2k4okdHqAnvt75LyeSouI/s1600/Slide19.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A view looking east in the morning of Jan 19, 1994 in Oswego, NY after a major super cold lake effect event.<br /></td></tr>
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Other views around town showed more examples of how adhesive this snow was. Icicles on the downwind sides of buildings were coated in snow while most signs facing upwind were plastered with enough snow to form hard faced pyramidal shapes. <br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRnTf1xkpJYE8RNVPpwOaLYrk6IsrBgTsyuMAwElI8uFwoRxLQ8Y042EjaJt27ut8-Jtor111Z3c2zdp-bhK3L_DKqmvYFgq2_CdHabVr1o3gfmfUdoxFmliKTpvRjeMloXBclxR06Iss/s1600/Slide20.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRnTf1xkpJYE8RNVPpwOaLYrk6IsrBgTsyuMAwElI8uFwoRxLQ8Y042EjaJt27ut8-Jtor111Z3c2zdp-bhK3L_DKqmvYFgq2_CdHabVr1o3gfmfUdoxFmliKTpvRjeMloXBclxR06Iss/s1600/Slide20.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Icicles hanging off the east side of the hotel were covered in snow while a parking sign in a nearby Walmart wore a nearly perfect pyramid of snow on its upwind side.</td></tr>
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Meanwhile trees and power lines wore mantles of snow as if the temperatures were near freezing. Even in the face of strong winds on the periphery of the band, the snow stuck fast to most objects.<br /><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrdDzx83UWAD8GQpfDh_OMPJPtcUViZ4DEbH0MS4F34KlxpvZDDWvr2UUH38w-Wo0LHCxkMgMqT1_Rc9SgU91XA64jFYXfa-7zffYVSjEFV3RvNmJuTaEyIsmaqYMEx4I_JBygLZQAyVQ/s1600/Slide21.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrdDzx83UWAD8GQpfDh_OMPJPtcUViZ4DEbH0MS4F34KlxpvZDDWvr2UUH38w-Wo0LHCxkMgMqT1_Rc9SgU91XA64jFYXfa-7zffYVSjEFV3RvNmJuTaEyIsmaqYMEx4I_JBygLZQAyVQ/s1600/Slide21.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Snow stuck to trees and power lines throughout the city after the main lake effect snow event.</td></tr>
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<br />At near 0 F, I would've expected an easier time of it removing snow from cars. Not in this case. The snow stuck more like melted marshmallow. <div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglejDLv0POvFkOLwLj4pBL_20Argidx8x2kE92EAdj6g4yLKCsPE4uld7svazEI78MDKRClLu4nqImAKtvwKqGK4HrZPK7JuP0xVcXQgn4rId4xinesMyvCKtCXCuwyPG3ZqF9bZTpOPA/s1600/Slide22.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglejDLv0POvFkOLwLj4pBL_20Argidx8x2kE92EAdj6g4yLKCsPE4uld7svazEI78MDKRClLu4nqImAKtvwKqGK4HrZPK7JuP0xVcXQgn4rId4xinesMyvCKtCXCuwyPG3ZqF9bZTpOPA/s1600/Slide22.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">My car was frosted by snow from the cold lake effect storm in Oswego, NY.</td></tr>
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The adhesive quality of the snow was different than any other kind of snow for which I experienced and the first hypothesis I had for this type of snow was that it was statically charged in the strong electric fields present in the snow band. Considering the amount of lightning we had overnight, this is the best explanation I had for the nature of the snow. </div>
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Nearly 9 years previous to the 1994 event, I was fortunate to experience another impressive shot of extremely cold lake effect on Jan 20, 1985. This one was colder than anything today could dish out and the 1994 event. The 500 mb plot showed a much more exceptional low latitude 'polar vortex' than today's or in 1994. </div>
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Again the Buffalo sounding showed exceptionally cold air starting out nearly -20 C with no sign of a dendrite production layer. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipIE3JZ-8sD1LcU5OFnIlqKglm4MRB9YhyVIR1yA2e_ae1QIhRB8D34m1YVzpnI2ovpby70Myyn1KokBJQdXr6eXom_7NPGMi7bn67fwd64aOzCL6P8L7JdCYYqppcF-wRDHiY1Zy98r0/s1600/Slide25.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipIE3JZ-8sD1LcU5OFnIlqKglm4MRB9YhyVIR1yA2e_ae1QIhRB8D34m1YVzpnI2ovpby70Myyn1KokBJQdXr6eXom_7NPGMi7bn67fwd64aOzCL6P8L7JdCYYqppcF-wRDHiY1Zy98r0/s1600/Slide25.PNG" height="300" width="400" /></a></div>
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As in the 1994 event the snow band struck Oswego with a severe dumping with near surface temperatures close in the low single digits F. The picture below was taken near the height of the lake effect event when we were in the strong inflow south of the band axis. My friend, Anthony Artusa was surely reveling in this as much as I was. Later on, we experienced several nearby strikes of cloud to ground lightning and several prominent towers in the area exhibited significant coronal discharge. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY5yIcdJdNyq7huru78hwHIL7guXmpEN2IjScLtG3yz3qdZem7PwMOIHeiRB_OgoRH2veU3Kl-DPMUjRkgBOjbbrOUDGhYPKkcZOUSG1EXp3eX6hOMbfvkhSFFMTF3cnEGZsx0gC9xXIs/s1600/Slide26.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY5yIcdJdNyq7huru78hwHIL7guXmpEN2IjScLtG3yz3qdZem7PwMOIHeiRB_OgoRH2veU3Kl-DPMUjRkgBOjbbrOUDGhYPKkcZOUSG1EXp3eX6hOMbfvkhSFFMTF3cnEGZsx0gC9xXIs/s1600/Slide26.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Oswego getting pounded by lake effect on Jan 20, 1985.</td></tr>
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The next morning, I saw the same snow adhesiveness as in the 1994 event. Most objects sticking above ground were coated in snow that was not easy to dislodge. We found out at this time that the snow was great for making snowballs, at a temperature of 0 F!<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8NDnb0vi-bi7u9j0z-agawOV1juLnkwwu4V4pWxEcT5bVBf0zp53AIvLd8kV6C6j3fT_xY92qhhuquuIvwrsF91A6ijzR7-W8Q5FMZxZw2Nr8ttKU7V53oLWH6C6DmIvHQ8L0SN4iqhY/s1600/Slide27.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8NDnb0vi-bi7u9j0z-agawOV1juLnkwwu4V4pWxEcT5bVBf0zp53AIvLd8kV6C6j3fT_xY92qhhuquuIvwrsF91A6ijzR7-W8Q5FMZxZw2Nr8ttKU7V53oLWH6C6DmIvHQ8L0SN4iqhY/s1600/Slide27.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A picture of me enjoying the aftermath of the lake effect on the SUNY Oswego campus on Jan 21, 1985.</td></tr>
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In both cases, I believe the snow was statically charged in a highly electrified environment within the lake effect band. Assuming that was really the case, a strong electrical field plays havoc with Nakaya's snow growth chart. Libbrecht (2005) describes that strong electrical fields can accelerate growth of crystals, typically with strongly accelerated growth of needles under a modest application of an electric field but then significant branching may occur at higher field intensities. The enhanced growth rates could easily compensate for the slower growth rate of snow crystals at temperatures outside the dendrite production zone of -10 to -20 C. </div>
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Whether or not this idea of electric field-induced crystal growth explained the huge snowfall rates is not something I can prove. For one thing, I would've had to test whether individual snow flakes had a charge. Second, there's not much understood about snow growth in electric fields, as this <a href="http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/electric/electric.htm">article</a> in <a href="http://snowcrystals.com/">snowcrystals.com</a> website explained. Clearly though, the presence of electric fields means that one who uses the Nakara crystal habit diagram to forecast snowfall rates, or snow density in lake effect events, stands the possibility of being wrong. </div>
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In addition to the uncertainties with electric field induced growth, much of the snowflakes I saw during both past events were heavily rimed. Many times I witnessed the classic dumps of graupel. This was not partially melted graupel, obviously, but snow flakes were so rimed that they took on the rounded shapes of graupel, and there were huge amounts of them. In fact, this may have explained why Oswego only got a 17:1 snow to liquid ratio out of the 1994 event. So this does bring back the idea that liquid water content also played a significant role in determining the snow type in Oswego. If the lake effect clouds were truly at or below -20 C, I can't imagine too much liquid water within them. Yes there may be some, and perhaps enough to cause significant riming. However much of the riming I saw seemed to have come from warmer temperatures. I suspect there was strong saturated ascent at temperatures warmer than what we saw onshore in Oswego. But there was no way of knowing. However, if the near surface temperatures depicted in the 4km NAM forecasters was anywhere close to being true then I can imagine not only an active dendrite production zone but also significant riming. Certainly the strong buoyancy concentrated close to the lake surface, in combination with saturation, would yield enough flux of liquid water to do the job.</div>
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One has to also question how in the world did I experience lightning in both cold events if the cloud was too cold for significant charge separation via the interaction of graupel and lighter crystals? Both of these events would've seriously fallen off the left side of the range of a nomogram proposed by Steiger et al. 2009 namely because the height of the -10 C level was below ground. They used the -10 C level as one of the important parameters determining the likelihood of lake effect lightning as a proxy for the presence of mixed graupel and snow crystals considered necessary for charge separation. Their other most significant parameter, convective layer depth, was considered an important contributor to updraft strength. The one consideration that could not easily be put into the parameter was the lake band morphology. Just about all lightning events came out of long axis single lake effect bands. This was not a worry for either of the events I experienced. But the extreme cold temperatures suggest that the only area with significant graupel production would have to be relatively close to the lake. And that any loss in graupel production efficiency owing to the cold would have to be made up by intense vertical motions right off the lake surface. I suspect the extreme horizontal and vertical temperature gradients could have supplied the necessary vertical motion. Again, if somehow, the NAM is right about the over lake 2m temperatures for this event, then these past events would have had similarly warm over lake temperatures. I remain doubtful of that the NAM is right.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO1Niln_l46O3PVVAYNCg5ix6e8p-0q26w9oesxnxcwu9vb0lvgedpKtPwvetG2cMs3exRgTSDsmudWjbS70JZiUnx9UG7lRPg5DEZOaZ5VpneOX7c4nTNQWmlOnoJQ6gfaVvJZGFHugs/s1600/Steiger_nomogram_ltg_2009.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO1Niln_l46O3PVVAYNCg5ix6e8p-0q26w9oesxnxcwu9vb0lvgedpKtPwvetG2cMs3exRgTSDsmudWjbS70JZiUnx9UG7lRPg5DEZOaZ5VpneOX7c4nTNQWmlOnoJQ6gfaVvJZGFHugs/s1600/Steiger_nomogram_ltg_2009.gif" height="211" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A nomogram showing the occurrence of lightning (stars) vs its nonoccurence (dots) as a function of the -10 C isotherm height and lake induced equilibrium level based on lake induced CAPE. This is figure 10 in Steiger et al. (2009)</td></tr>
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What does this have to do with this event? Well, the <a href="http://owles.org/">OWLES</a> project gives an opportunity to answer whether or not there is significant charge splitting from graupel formation in an extremely cold event. The project can also determine if the NAM is correct in its 2m over lake temperature forecasts and whether that is a significant contributor to vertical velocities. After all, we need to figure out how strong these vertical velocities can become with such extreme thermal gradients. And we need more documentation of lightning under extremely cold events. It's not often that a field project can coincide with a once in 10 year event like this. Good luck!</div>
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p.s. I heard from Dave Zaff, the SOO in Buffalo, that there was lightning this evening with the Lake Erie snow band. The 00Z sounding's maximum temperature was -13 C and a convective layer depth was around 2.7 km. So it has begun.</div>
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References:</div>
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Libbrecht, K. G., 2005: The physics of snow crystals, Rep. Prog. Phys, 68, 855-895. Available online at [<a href="http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/publist/rpp5_4_R03.pdf">http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/publist/rpp5_4_R03.pdf</a>]<br /><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;">Steiger, Scott M., Robert Hamilton, Jason Keeler, Richard E. Orville, 2009: Lake-Effect Thunderstorms in the Lower Great Lakes. </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;">J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.</i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;">, </span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;">48</b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif;">, 889–902.</span><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-13579599355105905802014-01-05T20:31:00.001-08:002014-01-05T20:31:08.594-08:00What is an extreme cold air outbreak going to do over Lake Ontario?Not for a long time have I seen an opportunity of cold air as extreme as this upcoming outbreak to interact with the eastern Great Lakes. What will be the impact of such cold temperatures on the lake effect snow machine east of Lake Ontario? First, let me say that the impact will be huge, not just from the unusually large horizontal and vertical temperature gradients but also the well aligned winds down the long axis of the eastern Lakes and the relatively deep convective layer. So yes, the lake effect machine will be put into maximum overdrive. But there are specific impacts and forecasting issues that we may expect to occur based on previous experience, and new ideas that have arisen since some of the last big arctic outbreaks. I'll start with discussing what I think of applying CAPE to forecasting the intensity of Lake Effect.<br />
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From yesterday's NAM forecast, the surface temperatures will be in the single digits above or below zero (F) at the surface by Monday night along the shoreline of both Lake Erie and Ontario. These temperatures are cold but as you can see they have been modified to some extent by the western lakes. The unmodified air swirling south and eastward through the Ohio valley will be well below zero F, even for high temperatures. The only exception to this scenario lies directly over the lakes Superior, Huron and Ontario where 2m temps exceed 15 deg F. This is a big question if the actual 2m temperatures will be able to remain this high due to sensible and latent heating, or whether the models are having a fantasy?<br />
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Meanwhile at 850 mb, sub -30 C air temperatures will likewise swirl around the lakes spreading eastward toward PA on the south side and into eastern Ontario to the north. The lake modification extends to this altitude in the models and I think this is accurate. By the 700 mb height, just about all lake temperature modification is gone and the NAM forecasts widespread sub -30 C temperatures across the Great Lakes.<br />
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<b>The question of CAPE in lake effect</b><br />
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What does the forecast sounding look like from a point over Lake Ontario? An example appears below where the sounding for early Tuesday morning shows a superadiabatic temperature lapse rate in the lowest 1 km of the atmosphere above the lake and a 2m temp of -10 C. That's quite a bit warmer than the temperatures at the same level on either side of the lake representing a classic depiction of strong lake induced heating simulated by the NAM. The result will be a model-based CAPE of 81 j/kg. Note that the nearest moist adiabatic indicates this CAPE to be from a mixed layer. As you can see the lowest model layers have the highest lapse rates, exceeding 12 deg/km or almost 3 deg/km greater than an adiabatic lapse rate. At these cold temperatures, the moist parcel and the dry parcel adiabatic are pretty similar and thus the moisture flux from the lake is not contributing much to the CAPE. It's mostly the intense sensible heating from below contributing to the CAPE. Though it's nice to have near saturation from low-levels to help reduce any dry air entrainment into any updrafts.<br />
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A CAPE of 81 j/kg may seem pretty tame for summer convection aficionados but consider that all of the CAPE lies below 3 km MSL (only 76 m below lake level). The highest parcel to environmental temperature excess in the convective layer is roughly 3-4 deg C (1 km LI = -3 to -4). If a parcel following the yellow curve was unmixed and idealized (e.g., no resistance from air above it, no entrainment), it would reach a vertical velocity of ~12 m/s. Such a vertical velocity would be likely to be strong enough to separate significant charge should a healthy region of graupel and ice crystals mix in a deep enough layer. Scott Steiger has a good paper discussing lake effect lightning (Steiger et al. 2009). I'll return to this later when you see where I'm going. <br />
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The question is whether the air parcel should be mixed or not? The NAM is obviously allowing lake modification to occur, even though the grid resolution of this output is relatively course (~12 km?). Perhaps the surface parcel should be used to calculate CAPE. In this case, a much larger value appears and it looks like this below.<br />
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Now in the SKEWT the thinner yellow curve from the surface extends beyond the 3 km MSL level and yields a CAPE of 303 j/kg. Calculating a pure parcel-based vertical velocity yields an impressive 24 m/s! Now we're talking a vertical velocity akin to summer convection. What's more impressive, however, is that the 1 km LI is nearly -7 deg C! If we were to plot the lowest LI found in a convective layer vs CAPE I'm pretty sure a -7 LI would be on the extreme end for that range of CAPE. But somebody should call me on that assumption. Needless to say, according to pure parcel theory, the vertical acceleration would be amazingly strong in the lowest km of the atmosphere. <br />
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Model-based MUCAPE also depicts values in this range, as can be seen in this forecast made available by the College of Dupage.<br />
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We're not done yet, however. We could apply an empirical technique to modify the 2m land temperature and dew point upwind of Lake Ontario to determine a near surface beginning parcel. This technique, based on Phillips (1972), would typically warm the 2 m temperature approximately halfway between the upwind surface temperature and the lake temperature after a typical over lake residence time of 90-120 min (winds 30 kts or so). Assuming the upwind temperature is near -17 C and the lake temperature is near 4 C (see GLERL's lake temp <a href="http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=l&ext=swt&type=N&hr=00">analysis of 4 C)</a> then the modified temperature would be -4 C and the dew point would be ~ -6 C. Calculate a surface-based CAPE then would yield an incredible 1332 j/kg and 1 km LI of -17! This would convert to a pure parcel-based vertical velocity of 51 m/s! I bet even tornado chasers would drool over those numbers in the late spring. <br />
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Note that I used the sounding point at Watertown NY which is away from the lake heating, and therefore loses the superadiabatic lapse rates below 1 km.<br />
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A vertical velocity of 51 m/s would surely yield a huge precipitation-free cavity surrounded by graupel the size of basketballs and incredible lightning displays. Well, even a more modest 24 m/s just from the NAM-based SBCAPE would do the same though the graupel would be maybe the size of grapefruits. Okay maybe we wouldn't see graupel that big because all the graupel would be flushed out the top of the convection and fall out the side leaving a big linear bounded weak echo region (BWER) down the centerline of the band. While a huge BWER hasn't been observed, smaller ones have been observed by mobile radar during a small field experiment in 2012 (Steiger et al. 2013). But vertical velocities of 12 m/s would be more than sufficient to loft frozen precipitation, even graupel, out of the updraft. <br />
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I have two considerations that cause me to seriously doubt vertical velocities reach those values depicted by the SBCAPE calculations using the 2m NAM temp and dewpoint or using Phillip's regressions of temperature and dewpoint. For the Phillips equations, I find it hard to believe in the temperatures depicted. If so then shoreline observations should show similar temperatures, or temperatures that would match Phillips regressions for even a relatively modest 0 C lake temperature assuming that the warmer temperatures offshore would've been overturned before reaching the cooler shelf waters. But it's not just the temperature I suspect, it's also the concept of applying pure parcel theory to calculate peak vertical velocity in a lake effect band. <br />
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Pure parcel theory ignores the impact convection has on its surroundings, and it also ignores the impact of pressure perturbations. Among other things, the application of parcel theory, the foundation behind using CAPE, depends on the surroundings being completely unaffected by the parcel. Perhaps parcel theory can be applied on the scale of a cumulus updraft because it's energetics is very small compared to surrounding environment and thus it's impacts can be ignored (still to one's peril). But when there is a massive heating source residing in the meso-alpha scale (i.e. Lake Ontario) that completely alters the state surrounding any point, the concept of steady base state loses its meaning. The concept of a parcel also loses its meaning as well. That's not to say that a lake effect band isn't convection. The band is releasing energy through convective processes. But it's not the kind of process that can be approximated by using a primitive parcel theory that forms the foundation of CAPE. The process is more akin to that of a hurricane where buoyancy is consumed as soon as its produced to provide a meso-alpha scale region of heating from which an organized circulation develops. In the lake effect example, the circulation develops around a linear axis as opposed to a circular area as in a hurricane. <br />
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I believe that using CAPE should be used with even greater caution in a lake effect environment than that of a more typical convective situation. And using CAPE from the Phillips equations output is nonsense. There is a great article on the concepts of buoyancy and how the real situation is so much more complicated than can be described by simple parcel theory. If you're up to it, read Doswell and Markowski (2004).<br />
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I suspect that vertical motions for the upcoming event will be observed that lie between the mixed parcel model and the surface-based parcel model. So that means somewhere above 12 m/s and below 24 m/s. Isn't it great coincidence that we will actually find out to some extent. The Ontario Winter Lake Effect Systems (<a href="http://owles.org/">OWLES</a>) project has started its second phase of operations on Jan 4 and will be ready for this event. They have the Wyoming King Air plane available for direct measurements of vertical velocity ready to provide an answer. However even with the plane up there, we may miss the most intense portions of the lake effect if the best instability occurs outside their flight times or locations. But it's certainly a great opportunity for getting a vertical velocity value. In addition, numerous ground teams will stand ready to collect temperature and dew point data to evaluate how the lake modifies the near surface air.<br />
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I'm going to post another entry tomorrow about what folks living east of Lake Ontario may see in this lake effect event based on two previous super cold events I've experienced in the last 30 years. <br />
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References:<br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">Doswell, Charles A., Paul M. Markowski, 2004: Is Buoyancy a Relative Quantity?. </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">Mon. Wea. Rev.</i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">, </span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">132</b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">, 853–863.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">Phillips</span><span class="NLM_x" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">, </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">D. W., </span><span class="NLM_year" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">1972</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">: </span><span class="NLM_article-title" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">Modification of surface air over Lake Ontario in winter.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;"> </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">Mon. Wea. Rev.</i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">, </span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">100</b><b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">, </b><span class="NLM_fpage" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">662</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">–</span><span class="NLM_lpage" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">670</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">Steiger, Scott M., and Coauthors, 2013: Circulations, Bounded Weak Echo Regions, and Horizontal Vortices Observed within Long-Lake-Axis-Parallel–Lake-Effect Storms by the Doppler on Wheels*. </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">Mon. Wea. Rev.</i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">, </span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">141</b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">, 2821–2840.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">Steiger, Scott M., Robert Hamilton, Jason Keeler, Richard E. Orville, 2009: Lake-Effect Thunderstorms in the Lower Great Lakes. </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.</i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">, </span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">48</b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px;">, 889–902.</span>Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-38535608193614903842013-03-03T21:59:00.001-08:002013-03-03T21:59:41.211-08:00Snow bow echo?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
How many times has there been a bow echo in an environment cold enough for snow to reach the ground within the confines of its heavy precipitation shield? The answer for my experience is – never! The closest for me was a snow thunderstorm and shelf cloud over Santa Fe ski area in a March event years ago. But that was not a bow echo like this one. This storm produced wind damage around Billings Montana in the late afternoon including snapped poles and an overturned tractor trailer. The radar loop from IA State below shows the onset of the bow over Billings and then its progression east. The local NWS office was on the situation and quickly issued a severe thunderstorm warning, later expanded to capture the growth of the bowing system. </div>
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Later after passing east of Billings, I snagged a few radar images of the bow. The bow echo appeared to show a velocity peak just south of Crow Agency though the area of high velocities was small. The Differential reflectivity showed only heightened values east of the high reflectivity. That's somewhat unusual for bow echoes of warmer environments where the heaviest rain and highest Differential reflectivities are colocated. Differential reflectivity in light rain is typically small but in heavy rain the values are inflated up above 2 dB. With high reflectivity and low Differential reflectivity, I am thinking that a large amount of ice makes up the precipitation type. The bottom right panel of figure 3 also shows the Kdp indicating lack of liquid. Normally the Kdp would indicate elevated values in a bow echo in a warmer bow echo. But then the bottom right picture shows high Correlation Coefficient. In a summer bow echo, any high reflectivity associated with low Differential reflectivity would mean falling hail and the Correlation Coefficient would be depressed. Here it is not depressed. My best guess is that this bow echo contained mostly ice in the form of snow and graupel. </div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh74y1AEUJ4dGX3y3uojlCSH-svVoQTUVCH7RYhFGX_XxhiunAr4cK7tL8YyAyGbcRDzsMlu1fISXFSnDwhbU7XlvqWcgxjFPXA7gBG6hM7aeeGP0nz2GRmwnN80CPd01duE-NdPh8T_pA/s1600/Slide03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh74y1AEUJ4dGX3y3uojlCSH-svVoQTUVCH7RYhFGX_XxhiunAr4cK7tL8YyAyGbcRDzsMlu1fISXFSnDwhbU7XlvqWcgxjFPXA7gBG6hM7aeeGP0nz2GRmwnN80CPd01duE-NdPh8T_pA/s320/Slide03.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 2. Reflectivity (left panel, base velocity (middle panel), and Differential Reflectivity (right panel) from the Billings, MT WSR-88D lowest elevation scan at 2013-03-03 2246 UTC.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6h0Ei4qHPMUv9GJS3AkIS5TsMANO8_PaY-LGTnPLjG1-9w2kufGzr1NlPHn6cQQH4icH460KXXk8oRsyoGqeYZKut5vltiXupGhegwf9m5Kl4MBNpHx_1cekTk9lZekOGhZcRkXWIDDY/s1600/Slide04.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6h0Ei4qHPMUv9GJS3AkIS5TsMANO8_PaY-LGTnPLjG1-9w2kufGzr1NlPHn6cQQH4icH460KXXk8oRsyoGqeYZKut5vltiXupGhegwf9m5Kl4MBNpHx_1cekTk9lZekOGhZcRkXWIDDY/s320/Slide04.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 3. Reflectivity (left panel, Correlation Coefficient (middle panel), and KDP (right panel) from the Billings, MT WSR-88D lowest elevation scan at 2013-03-03 2246 UTC.</td></tr>
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A closer look at the Billings area shows that temperatures quickly fell from near 50 deg F to near freezing as a cold front swept through, quickly followed by the bow (fig. 4). The webcam in figure 5 shows depressed visibility with heavy snow falling, and new snowcover on the ground, however the image was shot 30 minutes after the bow echo's arrival. Winds were already strong immediately following the cold front which arrived at the Billings airport at 2129 UTC (fig. 6). The bow arrived roughly 10 minutes later with a mix of rain, snow and graupel. The precipitation changed to completely frozen forms only seven minutes later while the winds were still gusting to 50 kts. Occasional lightning accompanied the heavy frozen precipitation. This progression of precipitation agrees quite well with the Dual-polarization radar data in figures 2 and 3. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEhmjD2S0JGrwke2H_CMCMpg5xNcL02a6ZwPFowsp-byyBbUCpa_7cD4D_IHWGtrDrbwv0YkAQDTpVEFHE6M1AsRdPUVMwiwTjH7rwBlGi6nUyEyuy6miduFOypvSU6gfPYILWjQ9nVfc/s1600/Slide05.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEhmjD2S0JGrwke2H_CMCMpg5xNcL02a6ZwPFowsp-byyBbUCpa_7cD4D_IHWGtrDrbwv0YkAQDTpVEFHE6M1AsRdPUVMwiwTjH7rwBlGi6nUyEyuy6miduFOypvSU6gfPYILWjQ9nVfc/s320/Slide05.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 4. A surface plot with a webcam image overlaid from near 2146 UTC courtesy of wunderground.com.</td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 5. An image taken at 2216 UTC 2012-03-03 courtesy of StormTeam webcam. </td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: -webkit-left;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">KBIL 032147Z 31033G51KT 1/4SM R10L/3000VP6000FT -TSPLGSSN FG SCT007 BKN032CB OVC070 01/M01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 31051/2135 WSHFT 2114 RAB34E47PLB39GSB42E43B47SNB43 TSB43 PRESRR OCNL LTGICCG TS OHD MOV E P0000 I1002 $</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: -webkit-left;">KBIL 032143Z 30036G51KT 1/2SM R10L/3000VP6000FT -TSRAPLSN SCT006 BKN032CB OVC070 01/M01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 31051/2135 WSHFT 2114 RAB34PLB39GSB42E43SNB43 TSB43 PRESRR OCNL LTGIC TS OHD MOV E P0000 I1002 T00111011 $</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: -webkit-left;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: -webkit-left;">KBIL 032140Z 30034G51KT 1SM R10L/5000VP6000FT -RAPL BKN020 BKN049 OVC080 02/M01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 31051/2135 WSHFT 2114 RAB34PLB39 PRESRR VIS 12V1 1/2 P0000 I1001 T00221006 $</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: -webkit-left;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: -webkit-left;">KBIL 032129Z 33027G43KT 10SM FEW030 SCT050 BKN080 09/M01 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 34043/2127 WSHFT 2114 VIRGA ALQDS VCSH W-N T00941006</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: -webkit-left;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: -webkit-left;">KBIL 032053Z 08008KT 10SM SCT075 BKN110 12/M01 A2952 RMK AO2 SLP994 T01221006 58029</span></span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhchmS1QSDIvwjmp9kUEBm-85s_WBAmFowoFpwDdNIS-LZH8HIgF6QrSYC-jz0TXGwmvHRW_s3j1WFAGcTcQYajkAWY_mPHhURJwHGSizq0TswALeD62Q_ryj-nJ1mbrehFlUPFQElKF1g/s1600/Slide07.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhchmS1QSDIvwjmp9kUEBm-85s_WBAmFowoFpwDdNIS-LZH8HIgF6QrSYC-jz0TXGwmvHRW_s3j1WFAGcTcQYajkAWY_mPHhURJwHGSizq0TswALeD62Q_ryj-nJ1mbrehFlUPFQElKF1g/s320/Slide07.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 6. A meteogram fro KBIL on 2012-03-03 including an annotation of the thunderstorm from 2140 - 2230 UTC.</td></tr>
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The cold front (fig. 7) that forced the bow echo's formation was part of a very strong upper-level short-wave trough and accompanying jet streak passing through Montana. Convective activity was occurring all along the front ahead of a dry slot. Note that the majority of the frontal forcing was occurring behind the surface frontal location, a characteristic of anafronts. This same system is forecasted to track to the southeast, merge with another southern stream wave and give the Mid-Atlantic states a late season snowstorm. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWg2hAnAGSgS5EtpGYajM30d9XBepoWLi78y14JKyHZWRPexUOFxHw7Nmh0om9843dN48SyU-AXo2LgcrzP8YpYD87RLQjug4Demg-Lq8AROa750TMPqTSG1W9R4dt3PbK4IRwr_lthWI/s1600/Slide09.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWg2hAnAGSgS5EtpGYajM30d9XBepoWLi78y14JKyHZWRPexUOFxHw7Nmh0om9843dN48SyU-AXo2LgcrzP8YpYD87RLQjug4Demg-Lq8AROa750TMPqTSG1W9R4dt3PbK4IRwr_lthWI/s320/Slide09.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 7. Surface plot by UCAR/RAP overlaid on top of a GOES visible image taken at 2145 UTC 2013-03-03. The blue curve represents the cold front in which the thunderstorm symbol marks the location of the bow. </td></tr>
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With all of the convective activity, I would've expected to see some instability in the form of CAPE. Finding some CAPE proved elusive. According to the SPC mesoanalysis, the nearest surface-based CAPE could only be found in northern Wyoming (fig. 8). However steep lapse rates in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere pointed to the possibility that with a little more moisture than analyzed, CAPE could be found (fig. 9). Even without much CAPE, the front appears to have been quite strong with a steep interface. One could argue that the cold front was strong enough alone to cause a convective-like line, also called a narrow cold frontal rain band. But if that's the case then why wasn't there one? And why did a bow echo form? Instability had to be there to produce this event. However, the instability still led to relatively small amounts of CAPE, and I cannot ignore the strong vertical forcing of this front. It is interesting that the MCS maintenance parameter painted high probabilities in the vicinity (fig. 10). I suppose that any convective convective parameter that doesn't include CAPE would be ironically effective.<br />
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This bow echo was likely not very intense. On its own, I doubt that the bow could've generated severe winds, or anything remotely close. However, the cold front was very strong, and the overall system, dynamic. Only a small convective supplement would be needed to push the winds into severe thresholds.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcuS4kMcS2lco60j9YSGNfHNWhtSq0GUVpgaxMSSHmBcycvqlRIBptoaeRq30R009TseCyRPzwnTgO04uRRfDq3m2km0HhwLjmoBiyfgYBykiTRsQalHQ_nty6La6Si1T6nO5vGJAibWg/s1600/Slide14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcuS4kMcS2lco60j9YSGNfHNWhtSq0GUVpgaxMSSHmBcycvqlRIBptoaeRq30R009TseCyRPzwnTgO04uRRfDq3m2km0HhwLjmoBiyfgYBykiTRsQalHQ_nty6La6Si1T6nO5vGJAibWg/s320/Slide14.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 8. Surface-based CAPE, low-level winds and mosaic reflectivity from the SPC mesoanalysis page. </td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6UUakVM9PUmfuRQXYE6wThWnBiq6l-wy-m65Ty4jijXnPXyuAAQKKLHV2eJc95UkVkzWTz7Sp3L6-PBAGb846RuQDV1Xy1mL7g1c3g4LZzjsSaZh1gUhtEXEq2aj3lhTz-yzK9q6vw9U/s1600/Slide17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6UUakVM9PUmfuRQXYE6wThWnBiq6l-wy-m65Ty4jijXnPXyuAAQKKLHV2eJc95UkVkzWTz7Sp3L6-PBAGb846RuQDV1Xy1mL7g1c3g4LZzjsSaZh1gUhtEXEq2aj3lhTz-yzK9q6vw9U/s320/Slide17.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 9. 0-3 km lapse rate analysis from the SPC mesanalysis page.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5zFKfbTmot9D-lCejy7tDRAljX7Yyjb4iS-uurvsMpN91fvtiPVvLCBH8mX6EMSl8Vf89l3ADbCty-8bngy76Qk7rK6LGpXQs5WooCqmxjC9R7unOTM4uv6U2Xtzz3BqVRSmqD-pryzU/s1600/Slide21.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5zFKfbTmot9D-lCejy7tDRAljX7Yyjb4iS-uurvsMpN91fvtiPVvLCBH8mX6EMSl8Vf89l3ADbCty-8bngy76Qk7rK6LGpXQs5WooCqmxjC9R7unOTM4uv6U2Xtzz3BqVRSmqD-pryzU/s320/Slide21.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 10. The Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) maintenance parameter available on the SPC mesoanalysis page.</td></tr>
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<br />Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-22292761396104953832013-02-25T08:01:00.001-08:002013-02-25T08:02:03.519-08:00Incredible snow forecast for Woodward, OK — or is it?We're in of what could be the biggest snowfall in Oklahoma history if you believe some of the models. On 00 UTC Feb 25, the NAM put out a nearly outrageous forecast of 30" or more for Woodward, OK. No wonder that was the case because the storm system coming across New Mexico is expected to close off and then pivot around an axis in Northwest Oklahoma allowing the precipitation band to remain firmly entrenched for hours.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFwAP71nNcDXsbMR1KytBeUFngfPOtPnZVq1zWT4JzpZg3BvVhBSm0oVqFbAF13nXj80oeuBGf5fufREiNJhl_5O60Aw5xrs2GmheqrKIadMV-3WZpKF_cZCUYW8miwJnoy7j7VPxNZcE/s1600/Slide14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFwAP71nNcDXsbMR1KytBeUFngfPOtPnZVq1zWT4JzpZg3BvVhBSm0oVqFbAF13nXj80oeuBGf5fufREiNJhl_5O60Aw5xrs2GmheqrKIadMV-3WZpKF_cZCUYW8miwJnoy7j7VPxNZcE/s320/Slide14.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3dGf5Xq6DE5VpgHMaQ_9UwS2dRRuKGBeXIX23TN8vhDck2FZzDL9OELgPPX98sAbZjvjrWWmyOman57kLVLA2VBpPl8RlOGVIlNxHdDFHkoMnIfDf69Od0pWrNw2oNhrSud2P7UjVxwo/s1600/20120225-NAM3hprecip-00z.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3dGf5Xq6DE5VpgHMaQ_9UwS2dRRuKGBeXIX23TN8vhDck2FZzDL9OELgPPX98sAbZjvjrWWmyOman57kLVLA2VBpPl8RlOGVIlNxHdDFHkoMnIfDf69Od0pWrNw2oNhrSud2P7UjVxwo/s320/20120225-NAM3hprecip-00z.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
Even earlier, the 21 UTC SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecasts) snowfall chart shows a mean dump of over 25" in Woodward. In the image below, all of the ensemble members are plotted on the same timeline from the <a href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/">SPC website</a> (time increases to the right). Some of the forecasts bury Woodward in over three feet of snow! To make a comparison, the big nor'easter in New England dumped a record 36-40" of snow in Connecticut. If the upper end of these forecasts came true, this storm would be even more unusual. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcnnHAtj1E8r1Vq9LNrihRjaM4z9NWRSvoUBzubMwH9xmXg6na5oJ_8Sm-p0Cl4votdM5PNjkbKQ9MF0FpctDlClfqFT2_fvdrcrl7JJm92TpMd2hqyHYLtTEr-a4K0V08atfpPCMztng/s1600/Slide16.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcnnHAtj1E8r1Vq9LNrihRjaM4z9NWRSvoUBzubMwH9xmXg6na5oJ_8Sm-p0Cl4votdM5PNjkbKQ9MF0FpctDlClfqFT2_fvdrcrl7JJm92TpMd2hqyHYLtTEr-a4K0V08atfpPCMztng/s400/Slide16.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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But wait, there's one subtle feature here that can make or break this monster snow forecast and that is the forecast snow ratio and compaction. First, snow ratio is incredibly complex to measure, or to even have consensus as to how to measure. Before the snow even hits the ground, there are a multitude of factors within and below the cloud that can affect the density of snow flakes. Crystal shapes can change quickly from relatively compact plates to the more classic dendrites just by changing the supersaturation of the cloud ever so slightly. Some research indicates that supersaturation increases when the vertical velocity increases. But supersaturation can also depend on how fast the liquid and gaseous water is being scavenged out by the crystals themselves. That's a feedback loop that can gunk up our initial guess. Then when a crystal falls into warmer saturated air, it can accrete other crystals, grow new ones right from water vapor, or directly intercept liquid cloud droplets. The rate at which these processes happen again depend on the vertical velocity, liquid and vapor content in the cloud and the number of ice crystals competing in the same space for available water. The end result of all these processes is a flake of snow with a certain density. This is a process that cannot be directly observed by operational forecasters.</div>
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However, we attempt to make some assumptions about the density of the falling snow flakes as a function various simpler processes and then see what happens to the forecast snow to liquid ratio (a simplistic estimate of falling snow density). The most simple estimate is to just apply a climatological average snow ratio. One is available <a href="http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm">here</a> created by Dr. Martin Baxter. Let's assume a 12:1 ratio and we get a timeline of snow accumulation (called a plume diagram) for an ensemble member near the mean snow fall. The time now increases right to left and the appropriate axis is labeled in inches in the far right. The blue line below shows the 12:1 ratio and the accumulation peaks just over 20", a respectable snow storm. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggbNKm94q6Y4vJC1MMLS56TYj-u7WCKSV1IZPuTL15TxQ4UN82GK8BPuTgZeUoXbKKtR890SVz6L9B89YirbXU8GNdV7F8Wvd9ETySXmRam7QMFF0ZTNUlQsDXfp2OuUcg0Lj0r50d46w/s1600/Slide17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggbNKm94q6Y4vJC1MMLS56TYj-u7WCKSV1IZPuTL15TxQ4UN82GK8BPuTgZeUoXbKKtR890SVz6L9B89YirbXU8GNdV7F8Wvd9ETySXmRam7QMFF0ZTNUlQsDXfp2OuUcg0Lj0r50d46w/s400/Slide17.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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But there are other techniques. A maximum temp in profile technique assumes the snow ratio increases as the maximum temperature in a vertical column decreases. The thinking here is that the density of falling snow decreases as the maximum temperature in the warm layer aloft decreases. There may be some merit to that if that warm layer is saturated since the maximum liquid cloud water content available for riming decreases as temperature decreases. Notice here the forecasted snow ratio for max temp in profile slowly increases as the air cools aloft.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3AdNkuuO1G04e6c7BafBh0MsBd3WAO53nmJysWIkbP2SEAMqmg53cqm0wyhyphenhyphenxddF0Wu9_ZVw5nEUqhik45RT9P2lvPuYUeR4BTBRhb9OT_4Sk7w1MpRdARzwr3b2nPuH437nBU3jdl5s/s1600/Slide18.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3AdNkuuO1G04e6c7BafBh0MsBd3WAO53nmJysWIkbP2SEAMqmg53cqm0wyhyphenhyphenxddF0Wu9_ZVw5nEUqhik45RT9P2lvPuYUeR4BTBRhb9OT_4Sk7w1MpRdARzwr3b2nPuH437nBU3jdl5s/s320/Slide18.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Meanwhile there is the Zone omega technique (colloquially called the Cobb 05 technique) where snow density decreases if the strongest ascent occurs in the dendrite production zone (-12 to -18 C). I <a href="http://jimladueview.blogspot.com/2011/02/do-snow-ratios-always-increase-when.html">talked about this</a> a couple years ago before our drought when we had a much colder snow storm. This is a horribly difficult method to verify and this method is completely statistical. The Woodward forecast below also shows the extreme volatility of the snow ratio. The snow fall winds up being pretty high (25-30") because this technique allows for snow ratios exceeding 40:1 if the vertical motion spikes in the dendrite production zone. Many times this technique overestimates the ratios (underestimates falling snow density) based on the experience of forecasters.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy4CKNL5q0gSCbsgUNy-FKFEnXXbf3QMRRIQ4v9OhRZoBIN6_zp9fy3F6NAOTuPs0hUhU15WCSbat84yXUFGF-YIPZ2WBarwG4YCheYrcT3I-O1NcdSQe-UiTU0y3rducro2HNf0V2RaQ/s1600/Slide20.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy4CKNL5q0gSCbsgUNy-FKFEnXXbf3QMRRIQ4v9OhRZoBIN6_zp9fy3F6NAOTuPs0hUhU15WCSbat84yXUFGF-YIPZ2WBarwG4YCheYrcT3I-O1NcdSQe-UiTU0y3rducro2HNf0V2RaQ/s320/Slide20.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Due to the errors, an alternate version of the technique cuts the snow ratios for each temperature down by almost a factor of two. Now the snow fall is around 23", or similar to that of the first two techniques. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7jH2xwVQ-CYJ8v0yu8W8GlhIxh9XvCaCEyCZHQt3SI-qANMAy8xgpFakeDD0bt5KLXQItSEdCTkxxyF6vQNn9gh6NqUt4na8_R1Eq22C5WvrQWKNpkFdzsGVgQcGZrbQbkenbg4Y8uJ4/s1600/Slide19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7jH2xwVQ-CYJ8v0yu8W8GlhIxh9XvCaCEyCZHQt3SI-qANMAy8xgpFakeDD0bt5KLXQItSEdCTkxxyF6vQNn9gh6NqUt4na8_R1Eq22C5WvrQWKNpkFdzsGVgQcGZrbQbkenbg4Y8uJ4/s320/Slide19.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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What we discussed so far only represents our best attempt at predicting the density of falling snow. What happens after the snow hits the ground before we go to measure it is a completely different matter. Snow begins to compact immediately after the flakes hit the ground and accumulate. Every one of the graphics above initiates a compaction routine based on an time-dependent exponential decay function. That's why the forecast snow accumulations decrease with time. If we removed that function, the purple line shows the snow depth forecast and now you can see values in excess of 35". </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkVClq1C5EFe1waRaLlb21qggqyqBHRgV17hw6VBafYWXFgB3ErOAlH1YEVI8nOwkBAyJw7NDvf6zySGodqcq1W5l0v_4g-oHHNkXrLBfHgFvtkGVTZq9L6qF6FEy3FugQJmcIje_j0Ho/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-02-24+at+10.59.46+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkVClq1C5EFe1waRaLlb21qggqyqBHRgV17hw6VBafYWXFgB3ErOAlH1YEVI8nOwkBAyJw7NDvf6zySGodqcq1W5l0v_4g-oHHNkXrLBfHgFvtkGVTZq9L6qF6FEy3FugQJmcIje_j0Ho/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-02-24+at+10.59.46+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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However, the exponential decay function is static, and therefore presents an unrealistic display of the processes that affect snow compaction. Perhaps the only realistic component of this is that the compaction continues with time and thus presents an idea of how much snow depth loss (density increase) occurs before someone measures the snow. But the rate of compaction can change according to the wind. The stronger the wind, the more blowing and drifting of snow causes crystal breakup and compaction. A strong wind like what Woodward is expecting today could cause drifts compact enough to support someone walking on them. If so, that kind of density is going to be associated with very small snow ratios, maybe 3 to 4:1! But let's assume a flat, representative surface for measuring snow. If that's the case then there's a nifty neural net (called the Roebber technique) located<a href="http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowratio/sr_map_main.pl"> here</a> that allows you to enter in the QPF (in liquid equivalent) and the expected wind speed. It will estimate the snow ratio for you. I entered in 2" of QPF and a 25 kt wind, certainly reasonable numbers for today. The output snow ratio falls to 9:1. That would yield less than 20". The Roebber technique also accounts for temperature related compaction. Certainly some of that occurred since Woodward was well above freezing yesterday.</div>
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All of this of course depends on an accurate QPF. Fortunately Woodward is in an area where the SREF had a high probability of > 2" of QPF and therefore a high confidence of forecasting if this snow will be recordbreaking or not. For those less fortunate areas where the QPF uncertainty is greater, the errors in snow ratio may not matter so much. </div>
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<br />Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-32770415271203743962013-02-11T21:33:00.000-08:002013-02-11T21:33:03.921-08:00A sun pillar caught me off guardOur drought seemed to have caught me unprepared for this evening where the clouds actually consisted of liquid water and a sun pillar formed. A field of altocumulus clouds spread overhead from the west marking creating another spectacular sunset, one that I hopefully adequately captured from the bottom of Lake Thunderbird's Jim Blue bay. <br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcyVS7PEAXkMs2eb80U63QeeK8J5dQZap4nOXK_kgHjNwhhJaql3i_iGKqVrDOl4YMcvjbQLXF3yjynqSsuL3hrqBf7EGfsyi6jsHon-LQE7tChAlDGZKtCFGqNoO1z67s2eTbYSPUwZ8/s1600/20130211_jglit3i-HDR-175410_CST.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcyVS7PEAXkMs2eb80U63QeeK8J5dQZap4nOXK_kgHjNwhhJaql3i_iGKqVrDOl4YMcvjbQLXF3yjynqSsuL3hrqBf7EGfsyi6jsHon-LQE7tChAlDGZKtCFGqNoO1z67s2eTbYSPUwZ8/s400/20130211_jglit3i-HDR-175410_CST.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">An altocumulus-filled sunset from Lake Thunderbird 2013-02-11 2354 UTC.</td></tr>
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This cloud layer occasionally sported small trails of snow precipitating out from each individual altocumulus. The altocumulus clouds were cold, but how cold? To answer this question, I referred to a vertical sounding taken at the National Weather Center. The balloon usually launches around 23 to 23:15 UTC, or up to 50 minutes before this shot was taken. The altocumulus clouds were overhead at launch time and so I'm pretty confident that the thin layer of moisture at 600 mb in the sounding below represented the altocumulus layer. If so then they were centered around -10 to -15 deg C, right about the temperature where snow crystals like to form fairly quickly. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUp9bIPwr9OM1pHglTrMjnrTG6e_FYtyYiwQTIbEm9L3wrkvkjvhPolRw46MudwgM9fJe9b1uAP1ekYQN8xWDdUzALtZjT4ZpGCPKsLpwZjjb2UUpZoYbg7mpl2CZm_ZSMZjLTk0n4nAA/s1600/20130212-ounskewt-00z.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUp9bIPwr9OM1pHglTrMjnrTG6e_FYtyYiwQTIbEm9L3wrkvkjvhPolRw46MudwgM9fJe9b1uAP1ekYQN8xWDdUzALtZjT4ZpGCPKsLpwZjjb2UUpZoYbg7mpl2CZm_ZSMZjLTk0n4nAA/s400/20130212-ounskewt-00z.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The vertical sounding taken at Norman where the balloon likely passed through the altocumulus layer at about 2330 UTC.</td></tr>
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A little later, a spectacular sun pillar formed to our west as the sun fell just below the horizon. Unfortunately I was caught off guard eating dinner after shooting the early pictures, and so my only picture was taken through a nest of Post oak branches. Other folks in town were more <a href="http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10200571465758524&set=a.2063064785640.123998.1515346465&type=1&theater">fortunate</a> and grabbed some really nice unobstructed shots.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYTdg6kopFZuyRWQXcWIuDmcNVcNyBlUTYfdTMAX_0EgGYMsPAq-LHKN2SSqOZGarzbgYkXqlDhKcaHE_I8rEWyJQpViQ45S44aZOl5jkQYdQ6pEQ1PrRDE2pWhD8qxKVEcncVAGsxvmM/s1600/20130211_jglit3i-181825_CST.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYTdg6kopFZuyRWQXcWIuDmcNVcNyBlUTYfdTMAX_0EgGYMsPAq-LHKN2SSqOZGarzbgYkXqlDhKcaHE_I8rEWyJQpViQ45S44aZOl5jkQYdQ6pEQ1PrRDE2pWhD8qxKVEcncVAGsxvmM/s400/20130211_jglit3i-181825_CST.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A sun pillar caught through the branches of our trees at home taken 2013-02-12 0018 UTC.</td></tr>
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I should've been more prepared to shoot this sun pillar at a better location because they are rare in this part of the country, more rare than sun dogs and possibly rainbows. Sun pillars like to form from sunlight reflecting off the top and bottom faces of plate crystals that are tilted upward toward the sun, especially a few minutes after the sun has set. This <a href="http://www.atoptics.co.uk/halo/platpill.htm">site</a> explains the process very nicely. Given that supercooled altocumulus clouds were present, the pillar seemed to show a presence of a pretty widespread field of ice crystals which were probably dominated by plates. The roughly -10 to -15 C temperature of this layer can easily produce plates as long as the supersaturation is low. Take a look at the morphology diagram like this one from <a href="http://snowcrystals.com/">snowcrystals.com</a>. <br />
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<a href="http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/morphologydiagram.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="244" src="http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/primer/morphologydiagram.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://www.atoptics.co.uk/halo/images1/shim158.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.atoptics.co.uk/halo/images1/shim158.gif" /></a></div>
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I doubt the supersaturation was high otherwise we'd be looking at stronger updrafts and more beefy looking altocumulus castellanous, or a continuous sheet of nimbostratus if there was widespread lift. Then forget about seeing the sunlight. No, these little altocumulus were barely able to condense liquid water. They also formed quickly, as expected, before the pictures above were taken and then moved northeast overhead (see the satellite image below). Why was that expected? Because the rapid ice crystal formation would quickly scavenge the clouds of their water supply eventually converting all the altocumulus to ice trails (virga). <br />
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The satellite image also shows that this field appears to have been connected to the larger shield of warm advection clouds forming above a polar airmass from a departing surface high to the east. The 850 mb and 700 mb plots below show the gulf moisture sliding over the lower level cold air and perhaps our altocumulus cloud deck formed from this same warm air advection but in a very thin layer. <br />
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While the warm air advection happens relatively frequently (except when we're in drought) it is rare to get such a thin layer of lift to condense a small amount of moisture into altocumulus clouds at temperatures that support plates (for the best pillars) and yet have not had time for the liquid water to completely be scavenged out by the forming ice crystals. How many times a year do I see these conditions get met at sunrise or sunset without intervening cloud layers to dim the sun? Not too often. Next time I'll be prepared for a sun pillar shot but I suspect I'll see a lot of tornadoes before then.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLxnqlXcRRBAdHG7Pjff7duR2rPWvMKq4NRm0d1NM078ZOrQL9U5Z6W_FyO3uibiG9hplth28_kTk9WRzDh3Kx1dvUXreNCLn0WJFJnRJqhy2GZdRlfKa3ZrPT7VLUOx3LUhfLSoGslhE/s1600/20130211-G13vis-end2345z.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="397" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLxnqlXcRRBAdHG7Pjff7duR2rPWvMKq4NRm0d1NM078ZOrQL9U5Z6W_FyO3uibiG9hplth28_kTk9WRzDh3Kx1dvUXreNCLn0WJFJnRJqhy2GZdRlfKa3ZrPT7VLUOx3LUhfLSoGslhE/s400/20130211-G13vis-end2345z.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Visible satellite loop from 2013-02-12 2002 to 2315 UTC.</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFDmo3h2quVex5mQNC-3owjUeR43JGlKxB_oXD4HdroYDNPodW5v-iyVLtXKAak8M-rjlutCPNCE6KPW-cpkDMjfjPP4Zfq76K8OC2sRBg9ghdOKS_LyGLGrvdUR1qzEYXn-5yhHWOCP8/s1600/20130212-upaCNTR_700-00z.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFDmo3h2quVex5mQNC-3owjUeR43JGlKxB_oXD4HdroYDNPodW5v-iyVLtXKAak8M-rjlutCPNCE6KPW-cpkDMjfjPP4Zfq76K8OC2sRBg9ghdOKS_LyGLGrvdUR1qzEYXn-5yhHWOCP8/s400/20130212-upaCNTR_700-00z.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWbrgmQEau1Lgl7KGHwl59HSCVWgtlM6V50WEG4EaaA5g3rSuUL71d0q-kQW98pX-r-bmzBMW_Mrc0Gfbtwb0wKy6ms81rPr6DjFa-dCr_PjQOQTM5afZ5Voe-Vvv-ehLlUAtb1W91QYw/s1600/20130212-upaCNTR_850-00z.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWbrgmQEau1Lgl7KGHwl59HSCVWgtlM6V50WEG4EaaA5g3rSuUL71d0q-kQW98pX-r-bmzBMW_Mrc0Gfbtwb0wKy6ms81rPr6DjFa-dCr_PjQOQTM5afZ5Voe-Vvv-ehLlUAtb1W91QYw/s400/20130212-upaCNTR_850-00z.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Surface analysis from NCEP/HPC for 2013-02-12 00 UTC.</td></tr>
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<br />Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3804236350356966310.post-67159312215202293972013-02-07T21:04:00.000-08:002013-02-07T21:05:49.282-08:00One day snow forecast for NYC 2 - 20" ??The epic nor'easter is only one day away from New York City with precipitation already spreading up to Virginia and the pressures are falling fast just offshore and yet the model guidance cannot give us any clue whether or not they'll get 2 or 20" of snow. Twenty one members of model guidance shows an absolutely huge spread in possible snowfall amounts for JFK airport. In the timeline plot below, the grayish curves show the snow fall rapidly increasing and then reaching a peak before the snow pack settles down as the time increases to the left. But some of the model solutions show almost no snow at all. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP4QRYn13hlZtz8u_a01vwor6Zjfc5y3vQKPqXWXtxACJntBL0UNAn4xXHVm4lc1C8vdggZ2VJDd826hVaLAt4_gLaCcM0vieoqS97v-MBYHlm4xXQiy61ydsqXu4FPRT_U8-GgUguXGY/s1600/Slide5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP4QRYn13hlZtz8u_a01vwor6Zjfc5y3vQKPqXWXtxACJntBL0UNAn4xXHVm4lc1C8vdggZ2VJDd826hVaLAt4_gLaCcM0vieoqS97v-MBYHlm4xXQiy61ydsqXu4FPRT_U8-GgUguXGY/s400/Slide5.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A time trace of 21 model members of the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system for JFK airport from the run starting at 2013 Feb 07 21 UTC. Time runs from right to left. The grey traces represent snow whose amounts can be determined from the right vertical axis. The green to blue traces represent the liquid equivalent amount forecasts. The horizontal blue line represents a static snow to liquid ratio of 12:1.</td></tr>
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What in the world is giving this amazingly huge uncertainty for being only one day out? One reason could be the wide spread in precipitation forecasted by the forecast ensembles. The blue traces above also show a huge spread ranging 0.6" to nearly 4.0" of liquid equivalent. The total precipitation map below shows how some model solutions almost leave New York City high and dry. <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYQVw2v7lcJ-wTzhg0snF8d4yQO8RM72S1qwasBlDNQnzncfPDws2Ws1o3jvDa74ezG7PjLQhDXvfG8wLQognFVvUKQS-hb77-wINIJaEwjzFXjjK-dKmkwmGiy_MYjWWTYECnXemcxy8/s1600/Slide4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYQVw2v7lcJ-wTzhg0snF8d4yQO8RM72S1qwasBlDNQnzncfPDws2Ws1o3jvDa74ezG7PjLQhDXvfG8wLQognFVvUKQS-hb77-wINIJaEwjzFXjjK-dKmkwmGiy_MYjWWTYECnXemcxy8/s400/Slide4.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The total liquid equivalent precipitation forecast from each SREF member in the small squares and the mean in the large square. The model run was at the same time as the figure above and valid for 2013-Feb-08 21 UTC. Note some of the members forecast the heavy precipitation to fall south of NYC. Image courtesy of the Penn State e-wall.</td></tr>
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However that's not the full story. Not only is the amount of precipitation unusually uncertain for NYC but the model members are unsure what side of the freezing line the temperatures should be. Here is another multi-panel image from the Penn State e-wall site showing the expected precipitation type and the location of the surface and 850 mb freezing line for the afternoon on Feb 08 (21 UTC). <br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirWAKhem65AwIoT92h8G8USgFoqml5Ej7h8nzRtHl2mBUWyLnYKhfu5Ct5NwSJqGQqhV9myv_8SiJzxWKOLUdR_70fqhJc-_9cmjs9zRAJdbns896O4AGnGMoR69YnVjJWUV_zSQmyeZM/s1600/Slide3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirWAKhem65AwIoT92h8G8USgFoqml5Ej7h8nzRtHl2mBUWyLnYKhfu5Ct5NwSJqGQqhV9myv_8SiJzxWKOLUdR_70fqhJc-_9cmjs9zRAJdbns896O4AGnGMoR69YnVjJWUV_zSQmyeZM/s400/Slide3.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Same SREF model run time and forecast hour as above but now I show the expected precipitation type (blue for snow). The blue contours show the surface freezing line while the black contour shows the freezing line at 850 mb. Notice the uncertainty of the freezing line around NYC.</td></tr>
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Visualized another way is this SREF sounding plot below showing all the members plotted. All the members show that surface temperatures should be cold and likely from 30 to 40 F. That's unfortunately centered around freezing and the results are dramatic with respect to what kind of precipitation is expected to fall. The left panel shows a huge splatter of expected precipitation types in the late afternoon based on a partial thickness technique. Unfortunately changing the technique won't improve the uncertainty what will fall in the late afternoon for NYC.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigLEjdq5g1zSwADApRoYZpIU5JVhml7Plxl5UD5dYNrL9c7Y6Jza5wpz5Gg4ZMCYKCagllzjHR87n8fD7CHX4dAYdusoBHzheYSDbqnXZBFwmyZPuVmf0CHSm2-ya-AXNr_sITeFYKZ4A/s1600/Slide5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigLEjdq5g1zSwADApRoYZpIU5JVhml7Plxl5UD5dYNrL9c7Y6Jza5wpz5Gg4ZMCYKCagllzjHR87n8fD7CHX4dAYdusoBHzheYSDbqnXZBFwmyZPuVmf0CHSm2-ya-AXNr_sITeFYKZ4A/s400/Slide5.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Forecast SREF profile of temperature (red) and dew point (green) for JFK valid for 2013 Feb 08 21 UTC. The left panel shows the expected precipitation type for each model run (red circles) based on the partial thickness technique. </td></tr>
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This forecast dilemma is not going to improve until we actually see the observations in the morning and see which side of the freezing line New York City will happen to reside. I'm going to be paying special attention to the <a href="http://amdar.noaa.gov/FAQ.html">AMDAR</a> aircraft sounding profiles as they take off from the NYC area airports. Unfortunately I hear that flights are being canceled left and right in the NYC area just when we need frequent observations of temperature aloft. That's why frequent radiosonde launches will be so critical for the NYC area tomorrow. It's the only platform that can successfully get us the data we need in bad weather. That is unless some group can fly foul weather drones.<br />
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Now for the Boston area, there is more confidence of higher liquid equivalent precipitation though a couple model members leave Boston almost as dry as New York City. As for snowfall, there is also a similar uncertainty in temperatures but all the runs "safely" keep Boston below freezing throughout the atmosphere and snow, and lots of it, is a virtual certainty.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOaz4PTQwEypgVTFQwmX0Nb8mvfahyphenhyphenEFwoXblkjPibdi4nsTTrgLLWqB8uixblCUf327-r472TbZhG22y04RyMQ-Z7GO2QkZ_pKWAOtV0fznufdscAfxudK41bARPDIetw-wzZR7oQsV4/s1600/Slide8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOaz4PTQwEypgVTFQwmX0Nb8mvfahyphenhyphenEFwoXblkjPibdi4nsTTrgLLWqB8uixblCUf327-r472TbZhG22y04RyMQ-Z7GO2QkZ_pKWAOtV0fznufdscAfxudK41bARPDIetw-wzZR7oQsV4/s400/Slide8.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Same kind of time trace for the SREF as above but for Boston, MA. Note the precipitation uncertainty is similar as fo</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9PbS6-GFWA4xV-KYI0x5UhFqnj0kIYZPanNRWt9sZ2GGNnglMXh40igoTNlOO5vL1uT1gMkA9G9-xKwLdTRzvHoaSHQ3nEtH9IH1CFcgZj3_ZUzbajkV7GEx3qmHlY2WP0ujz6CxscIY/s1600/Slide7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9PbS6-GFWA4xV-KYI0x5UhFqnj0kIYZPanNRWt9sZ2GGNnglMXh40igoTNlOO5vL1uT1gMkA9G9-xKwLdTRzvHoaSHQ3nEtH9IH1CFcgZj3_ZUzbajkV7GEx3qmHlY2WP0ujz6CxscIY/s400/Slide7.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Same forecast model sounding for the SREF as above but for Boston, MA. The low-level temperature uncertainty appears just as high for BOS as for JFK but the soundingis colder and all members forecast snow.</td></tr>
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<br />Jim LaDuehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08750069679505530489noreply@blogger.com0